Which survey indicators are useful for monitoring consumption? Evidence from European countries

This paper assesses the information content of two survey indicators for consumption developments in the near future for eight European countries in the period 1985–1998. Empirical work on this topic typically focuses on consumer confidence, the perceptions of buyers of consumption goods. This paper examines whether perceptions of sellers of consumption goods, measured by retail trade surveys, may also improve short‐term monitoring of consumption. We find that both consumer confidence and retailer confidence embody valuable information, when analysed in isolation. For France, Italy and Spain we conclude that adding retail confidence does not improve the indicator model once consumer confidence has been included. For the UK the reverse case is obtained. For the remaining four countries we show that combining consumer sentiment and retail trade confidence into a composite indicator leads to optimal results. Our results suggest that incorporating information from retail trade surveys may offer significant benefits for the analysis of short‐term prospects of consumption. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Preferential excretion of glycated albumin in C57BL-Ks-J mice: effects of diabetes.

Urinary excretion of glycated albumin was quantitated in genetically hyperglycemic mice (C57BL-Ks-J, db/db mice), a model for non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus, and compared with their non-diabetic littermates. The data indicated a preferential excretion of glycated albumin in non-diabetic mice. This phenomenon of 'editing' of glycated albumin is decreased significantly in diabetic mice. Quantitative measurements of overall excretion of glycated albumin suggested that the loss of editing in diabetic mice is due to the dilution of glycated albumin by the unmodified albumin which is excreted in large amounts in diabetic mice. Therefore, the loss of editing observed in this model resembled the one we characterized in insulin-dependent diabetic humans and a streptozotocin-diabetic rat model.     

Quantal transmitter secretion from myocytes loaded with acetylcholine.

It is well known that transmitter secretion requires specialized secretory organelles, the synaptic vesicles, for the packaging, storage and exocytotic release of the transmitter. Here we report that when acetylcholine (ACh) is loaded into an isolated Xenopus myocyte, there is spontaneous quantal release of ACh from the myocyte which results in activation of its own surface ACh channels and the appearance of membrane currents resembling miniature endplate currents. This myocyte secretion probably reflects Ca(2+)-regulated exocytosis of ACh-filled cytoplasmic compartments. Furthermore, step depolarization of the myocyte membrane triggers evoked ACh release from the myocyte with a weak excitation-secretion coupling. These findings suggest that quantal transmitter secretion does not require secretory pathways unique to neurons and that the essence of presynaptic differentiation may reside in the provision of transmitter supply and modification of the preexisting secretion pathway.     

Exponential smoothing: Behavior of the ex-post sum of squares near 0 and 1

When using simple exponential smoothing on a given time series the nature of the relationship between the optimal smoothing constant and the autocorrelation structure of the series remains an unresolved question. Although numerical search routines can easily be used to find optimal values of the smoothing constant, they offer little insight into the nature of the relationship between the estimated smoothing constant and the structure of the underlying time series. We suggest that renewed investigations of the ex-post sum of squares function may prove helpful in this pursuit. Results are presented that illustrate how the optimal smoothing constant depends upon the value used to initialize the smoothing and upon the sample autocorrelation coefficients of the observed series. These results are based on a new formula for the derivative of the ex-post sum of squares function. In particular, the derivative is examined near 0 and 1, where great simplifications occur in its form, thereby facilitating investigations near these points. A necessary and sufficient condition is stated for when the ex-post sum of squares must have a positive derivative at 0 and the autocorrelation coefficients of the differenced series are shown to affect the sign of the derivative near 1. Based on these results, a general algorithm is presented as an alternative to grid search routines for minimizing the ex-post sum of squares.     

Human cytomegalovirus UL97 open reading frame encodes a protein that phosphorylates the antiviral nucleoside analogue ganciclovir.

Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV, a betaherpes virus) is the cause of serious disease in immunologically compromised individuals, including those with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. One of the compounds used in the chemotherapy of HCMV infections is the nucleoside analogue 9-(1,3-dihydroxy-2-propoxymethyl)-guanine (ganciclovir). The mechanism of action of this drug is dependent on the formation of the nucleoside triphosphate, which is a strong inhibitor of the viral DNA polymerase. Thymidine kinase, which is encoded by many of the herpesviruses, catalyses the initial phosphorylation of ganciclovir. But there is no evidence for the coding of this enzyme by HCMV, and DNA sequence analysis of the HCMV genome has shown that there is no open reading frame characteristic of a herpesvirus thymidine kinase. Here we present biochemical and immunological evidence that the HCMV UL97 open reading frame codes for a protein capable of phosphorylating ganciclovir. This protein seems to be responsible for the selectivity of ganciclovir and will be useful tool in the understanding and refinement of the antiviral activity of new selective anti-HCMV compounds.     

Estimation and testing of time-varying coefficient regression models in the presence of linear restrictions

A linear regression model with random walk coefficients is extended to allow for linear restrictions between the coefficients to be satisfied at each point in time. Estimation in this model is shown to be no more involved than estimation in the standard model. It is also demonstrated how, after a slight modification to the testing problem, classical test procedures may be applied to the problem of testing for such restrictions. The performance of the Lagrange Multiplier test for a variety of different restrictions is then investigated via simulation. An empirical application involving testing for homogeneity in a random walk coefficient version of the AIDS model is given.     

Nuclear localization and signalling activity of phosphoinositidase C beta in Swiss 3T3 cells.

The hydrolysis of phosphatidylinositol 4,5-bisphosphate (PtdInsP2) is a widespread receptor-coupled signalling system at the plasma membrane of most eukaryotic cells. The existence of an entirely separate nuclear phosphoinositide signalling system is suggested from evidence that purified nuclei synthesize PtdInsP2 and phosphatidylinositol 4-phosphate (PtdInsP) in vitro and that a transient decrease in the mass of these lipids occurs when Swiss 3T3 cells are cultured in the presence of insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1). These IGF-1-dependent changes in inositol lipids coincide with an increase in nuclear diacyglycerol and precede translocation to the nucleus and activation of protein kinase C (refs 5, 6). Circumstantial evidence that links these changes with mitosis comes from the isolation of a 3T3 clone that expresses the type-1 IGF receptor and binds IGF-1 peptide but does not respond mitogenically or show transient mass changes in nuclear inositol lipids. A key question is how IGF-1 initiates the rapid breakdown of PtdInsP and PtdInsP2 in the nucleus. Here we present evidence that nuclei of 3T3 cells contain the beta-isozyme of phosphoinositidase C, whereas the gamma-isozyme is confined to the cytoplasm and that IGF-1 treatment stimulates exclusively the activity of nuclear phosphoinositidase C.     

Seasonality in human sleep.

The timing of sleep and sleep EEG parameters in 10 healthy male subjects were investigated in four seasons under controlled conditions. The phase of nocturnal sleep was delayed about one and a half hours in winter as compared to that in summer. The duration of stage 4 sleep decreased and REM sleep increased significantly in winter compared with summer. The seasonality in the timing of sleep can be explained by photoperiodic time cues, but the changes in sleep EEG parameters are difficult to explain in terms of photoperiod.