Forecasting volatility by means of threshold models

The aim of this paper is to compare the forecasting performance of competing threshold models, in order to capture the asymmetric effect in the volatility. We focus on examining the relative out‐of‐sample forecasting ability of the SETAR‐Threshold GARCH (SETAR‐TGARCH) and the SETAR‐Threshold Stochastic Volatility (SETAR‐THSV) models compared to the GARCH model and Stochastic Volatility (SV) model. However, the main problem in evaluating the predictive ability of volatility models is that the ‘true’ underlying volatility process is not observable and thus a proxy must be defined for the unobservable volatility. For the class of nonlinear state space models (SETAR‐THSV and SV), a modified version of the SIR algorithm has been used to estimate the unknown parameters. The forecasting performance of competing models has been compared for two return time series: IBEX 35 and S&P 500. We explore whether the increase in the complexity of the model implies that its forecasting ability improves. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Die bakteriostatische Wirkung von Chalkon,Flavanon, Flavon und Flavonol

Summary Chalcone, flavanone, flavone, and its derivatives had a certain bacteriostatic effect onSt. aureus. Flavonol has no activity and morin, a derivative of flavonol, showed only a weak inhibition of the bacterial growth.Cystein did not have any antagonistic effect.Extracts of drugs, which contain natural flavanones, flavones, isoflavones and flavonols, are more or less bacteriostatic.     

Weight measurement using image-based pose analysis

Image-based gait analysis as a means of biometric identification has attracted much research attention. Most of the existing methods focus on human identification, posture analysis and movement tracking. There have been few investigations on measuring the carried load based on the carrier＇s gait characteristics by automatic image processing. Nevertheless, this measurement is very useful in a number of applications, such as the study of the carried load on the postural development of children and adolescence. In this paper, we investigate how to automatically estimate the carried weight from a sequence of images. We present a method to extract human gait silhouette based on an observation that humans tend to minimize the energy during motion. We compute several angles of body leaning and determine the relationship of the carried weight, the leaning angles and the centroid location according to a human kinetic study. Our weight determination method has been verified successfully by experiments.     

Critical considerations in the development of systems thinking and practice

This paper is concerned with the development of ‘Systems Thinking.’ In particular, it considers and critiques ‘traditional Systems Thinking’ within the framework of Critical Systems Thinking. Before embarking on such a venture it is necessary to derive a base context from which to develop argument and analysis. Therefore the outline of this paper is as follows: A contextual setting for Systems Thinking, Theoretical Considerations, Soft Systems Thinking and Methodology, and A Critical Systems Thinking (CST) approach. The account of the development of Systems Thinking is followed by a synopsis of a theoretical framework for Systems Thinking which will allow us to gain an understanding of contemporary views. The paper then goes on to review SSM and CST in order to provide a platform for a critique of traditional forms of Systems Thinking. The final section briefly discusses the applicability of CST to the ‘real-world’ context by outlining some current studies being undertaken by the author.     

A New Discipline of Science-The Study of Open Complex Giant System and Its Methodology

This paper introduces the conception of open complex giant system and the methodology for dealing with the system, with stress on its profound significance in development of science and technology. The authors conclude that the reductionism underlying the exact science is not suitable to open complex giant system, and the only feasible alternative is the meta-synthetic engineering from the qualitative to the quantitative.     

Sister chromatid exchanges in lymphocytes of normal and alcoholic subjects.

The effects of alcohol consumption, cigarette smoking and age on sister chromatid exchange (SCE) frequency in human lymphocytes were assessed by means of multiple linear regression. An increase in SCE rates was associated with alcohol consumption (p = 0.0001), smoking (p = 0.0231), and, to a small extent (p = 0.057), age. These three confounding factors explain 48% of the inter-personal variation in SCE rates among subjects studied.