Predicting crypto‐currencies using sparse non‐Gaussian state space models

In this paper we forecast daily returns of crypto‐currencies using a wide variety of different econometric models. To capture salient features commonly observed in financial time series like rapid changes in the conditional variance, non‐normality of the measurement errors and sharply increasing trends, we develop a time‐varying parameter VAR with t‐distributed measurement errors and stochastic volatility. To control for overparametrization, we rely on the Bayesian literature on shrinkage priors, which enables us to shrink coefficients associated with irrelevant predictors and/or perform model specification in a flexible manner. Using around one year of daily data, we perform a real‐time forecasting exercise and investigate whether any of the proposed models is able to outperform the naive random walk benchmark. To assess the economic relevance of the forecasting gains produced by the proposed models we, moreover, run a simple trading exercise.     

Functional characterization of CP148, a novel key component for centrosome integrity in Dictyostelium

The Dictyostelium centrosome consists of a layered core structure surrounded by a microtubule-nucleating corona. A tight linkage through the nuclear envelope connects the cytosolic centrosome with the clustered centromeres within the nuclear matrix. At G2/M the corona dissociates, and the core structure duplicates, yielding two spindle poles. CP148 is a novel coiled coil protein of the centrosomal corona. GFP-CP148 exhibited cell cycle-dependent presence and absence at the centrosome, which correlates with dissociation of the corona in prophase and its reformation in late telophase. During telophase, GFP-CP148 formed cytosolic foci, which coalesced and joined the centrosome. This explains the hypertrophic appearance of the corona upon strong overexpression of GFP-CP148. Depletion of CP148 by RNAi caused virtual loss of the corona and disorganization of interphase microtubules. Surprisingly, formation of the mitotic spindle and astral microtubules was unaffected. Thus, microtubule nucleation complexes associate with centrosomal core components through different means during interphase and mitosis. Furthermore, CP148 RNAi caused dispersal of centromeres and altered Sun1 distribution at the nuclear envelope, suggesting a role of CP148 in the linkage between centrosomes and centromeres. Taken together, CP148 is an essential factor for the formation of the centrosomal corona, which in turn is required for centrosome/centromere linkage.     

A Mal functional variant is associated with protection against invasive pneumococcal disease, bacteremia, malaria and tuberculosis

Toll-like receptors (TLRs) and members of their signaling pathway are important in the initiation of the innate immune response to a wide variety of pathogens. The adaptor protein Mal (also known as TIRAP), encoded by TIRAP (MIM 606252), mediates downstream signaling of TLR2 and TLR4 (refs. 4-6). We report a case-control study of 6,106 individuals from the UK, Vietnam and several African countries with invasive pneumococcal disease, bacteremia, malaria and tuberculosis. We genotyped 33 SNPs, including rs8177374, which encodes a leucine substitution at Ser180 of Mal. We found that heterozygous carriage of this variant associated independently with all four infectious diseases in the different study populations. Combining the study groups, we found substantial support for a protective effect of S180L heterozygosity against these infectious diseases (N = 6,106; overall P = 9.6 x 10(-8)). We found that the Mal S180L variant attenuated TLR2 signal transduction.     

多晶硅电阻中晶粒数、晶粒平均长度及激活能的确定

提出了一种基于实测伏安特性确定多晶硅电阻中晶粒数及晶粒平均长度的方法。用该法得出的结果同透射电子显微镜的实测统计结果符合较好，平均偏差小于１５％，给出了基于多晶硅电阻电流温度关系实测曲线得出的晶粒边界激活能。结果显示：经Ｈ２气氛４５０℃３０ｍｉｎ退火的样品，其激活能高于未退火的。     

Allometric degree distributions facilitate food-web stability

In natural ecosystems, species are linked by feeding interactions that determine energy fluxes and create complex food webs. The stability of these food webs enables many species to coexist and to form diverse ecosystems. Recent theory finds predator-prey body-mass ratios to be critically important for food-web stability. However, the mechanisms responsible for this stability are unclear. Here we use a bioenergetic consumer-resource model to explore how and why only particular predator-prey body-mass ratios promote stability in tri-trophic (three-species) food chains. We find that this 'persistence domain' of ratios is constrained by bottom-up energy availability when predators are much smaller than their prey and by enrichment-driven dynamics when predators are much larger. We also find that 97% of the tri-trophic food chains across five natural food webs exhibit body-mass ratios within the predicted persistence domain. Further analyses of randomly rewired food webs show that body mass and allometric degree distributions in natural food webs mediate this consistency. The allometric degree distributions hold that the diversity of species' predators and prey decreases and increases, respectively, with increasing species' body masses. Our results demonstrate how simple relationships between species' body masses and feeding interactions may promote the stability of complex food webs.     

Hemmungswirkung verschiedener Chinone auf die Eiweißspaltung durch Papain

Summary With the intention to clarify the mechanism of action of the antibiotic effect of some quinones the inhibition of the activity of papain by various quinones was measured. The results let it appear improbable that there is any relation between the antibacterial effect of the quinones and their inhibition power on papain. On the other hand a close parallelism was found in the strength of inhibition of the same quinones on papain, urease and catalase. The mechanism of action of the quinone inhibition of these three enzymes must be regarded as a very similar one.

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Ausführliche Veröffentlichung mit weiteren Belegen folgt in den Monatsheften für Chemie (Wien).     

Antibiotika als pflanzliche Plasmagifte

Summary The toxic action oflycomarasmine (a wilting agent produced byFusarium lycopersici Sacc., the causal organism of tomato-wilting) and ofpatulin (clavacin, an antibiotic produced byPenicillium patulum and by some other fungi) on some test-objects is studied (anthocyanin-test with red turnips, plasma-streaming test withSpirogyra etc.). Both substances are able to destroy for instance the semipermeability of the plasma boundary layer; but patulin proves to be more toxic for these objects than lycomarasmine, the specific poison of the tomato wilting disease.     

FAN1 mutations cause karyomegalic interstitial nephritis, linking chronic kidney failure to defective DNA damage repair

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) represents a major health burden. Its central feature of renal fibrosis is not well understood. By exome sequencing, we identified mutations in FAN1 as a cause of karyomegalic interstitial nephritis (KIN), a disorder that serves as a model for renal fibrosis. Renal histology in KIN is indistinguishable from that of nephronophthisis, except for the presence of karyomegaly. The FAN1 protein has nuclease activity and acts in DNA interstrand cross-link (ICL) repair within the Fanconi anemia DNA damage response (DDR) pathway. We show that cells from individuals with FAN1 mutations have sensitivity to the ICL-inducing agent mitomycin C but do not exhibit chromosome breakage or cell cycle arrest after diepoxybutane treatment, unlike cells from individuals with Fanconi anemia. We complemented ICL sensitivity with wild-type FAN1 but not with cDNA having mutations found in individuals with KIN. Depletion of fan1 in zebrafish caused increased DDR, apoptosis and kidney cysts. Our findings implicate susceptibility to environmental genotoxins and inadequate DNA repair as novel mechanisms contributing to renal fibrosis and CKD.     

Pituitary growth hormone and hypothalamic somatostatin in young female rats versus old constant estrous female rats

Summary Pituitary content and concentration of growth hormone was significantly reduced, and hypothalamic somatostatin content significantly increased, in old constant estrous as compared to young female rats. Increased levels of somatostatin may contribute to the decrease in pituitary growth hormone levels in these animals.This work was supported by NIH Research grants AG-00416 (J.M.) from the National Institute on Aging, AM-04784 (J.M.) from the NIAMDD, and NIA postdoctoral fellowships AG-05208 (L.J.F.) and AG-05147 (W.E.S.).     

Bilateral resection of superficial rat kidney cortex: effect on sodium balance.

Bilateral resection of the whole superficial kidney cortex (approximately 75% of glomeruli) was carried out in rats. These animals needed some 2 days longer to restore their sodium balance when placed from low to high sodium intake in comparison with rats subjected to other types of partial nephrectomy.