Adaptive forecasting of the EURIBOR swap term structure

In this paper we adopt a principal components analysis (PCA) to reduce the dimensionality of the term structure and employ autoregressive (AR) models to forecast principal components which, in turn, are used to forecast swap rates. Arguing in favour of structural variation, we propose data‐driven, adaptive model selection strategies based on the PCA/AR model. To evaluate ex ante forecasting performance for particular rates, distinct forecast features, such as mean squared errors, directional accuracy and directional forecast value, are considered. It turns out that, relative to benchmark models, the adaptive approach offers additional forecast accuracy in terms of directional accuracy and directional forecast value. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Light-induced shape-memory polymers

Materials are said to show a shape-memory effect if they can be deformed and fixed into a temporary shape, and recover their original, permanent shape only on exposure to an external stimulus. Shape-memory polymers have received increasing attention because of their scientific and technological significance. In principle, a thermally induced shape-memory effect can be activated by an increase in temperature (also obtained by heating on exposure to an electrical current or light illumination). Several papers have described light-induced changes in the shape of polymers and gels, such as contraction, bending or volume changes. Here we report that polymers containing cinnamic groups can be deformed and fixed into pre-determined shapes--such as (but not exclusively) elongated films and tubes, arches or spirals--by ultraviolet light illumination. These new shapes are stable for long time periods, even when heated to 50 degrees C, and they can recover their original shape at ambient temperatures when exposed to ultraviolet light of a different wavelength. The ability of polymers to form different pre-determined temporary shapes and subsequently recover their original shape at ambient temperatures by remote light activation could lead to a variety of potential medical and other applications.     

Integrated transcriptional profiling and linkage analysis for identification of genes underlying disease

Integration of genome-wide expression profiling with linkage analysis is a new approach to identifying genes underlying complex traits. We applied this approach to the regulation of gene expression in the BXH/HXB panel of rat recombinant inbred strains, one of the largest available rodent recombinant inbred panels and a leading resource for genetic analysis of the highly prevalent metabolic syndrome. In two tissues important to the pathogenesis of the metabolic syndrome, we mapped cis- and trans-regulatory control elements for expression of thousands of genes across the genome. Many of the most highly linked expression quantitative trait loci are regulated in cis, are inherited essentially as monogenic traits and are good candidate genes for previously mapped physiological quantitative trait loci in the rat. By comparative mapping we generated a data set of 73 candidate genes for hypertension that merit testing in human populations. Mining of this publicly available data set is expected to lead to new insights into the genes and regulatory pathways underlying the extensive range of metabolic and cardiovascular disease phenotypes that segregate in these recombinant inbred strains.     

Mutations in a member of the Ras superfamily of small GTP-binding proteins causes Bardet-Biedl syndrome

RAB, ADP-ribosylation factors (ARFs) and ARF-like (ARL) proteins belong to the Ras superfamily of small GTP-binding proteins and are essential for various membrane-associated intracellular trafficking processes. None of the approximately 50 known members of this family are linked to human disease. Using a bioinformatic screen for ciliary genes in combination with mutational analyses, we identified ARL6 as the gene underlying Bardet-Biedl syndrome type 3, a multisystemic disorder characterized by obesity, blindness, polydactyly, renal abnormalities and cognitive impairment. We uncovered four different homozygous substitutions in ARL6 in four unrelated families affected with Bardet-Biedl syndrome, two of which disrupt a threonine residue important for GTP binding and function of several related small GTP-binding proteins. Analysis of the Caenorhabditis elegans ARL6 homolog indicates that it is specifically expressed in ciliated cells, and that, in addition to the postulated cytoplasmic functions of ARL proteins, it undergoes intraflagellar transport. These findings implicate a small GTP-binding protein in ciliary transport and the pathogenesis of a pleiotropic disorder.     

Caenorhabditis elegans ABL-1 antagonizes p53-mediated germline apoptosis after ionizing irradiation

c-Abl, a conserved nonreceptor tyrosine kinase, integrates genotoxic stress responses, acting as a transducer of both pro- and antiapoptotic effector pathways. Nuclear c-Abl seems to interact with the p53 homolog p73 to elicit apoptosis. Although several observations suggest that cytoplasmic localization of c-Abl is required for antiapoptotic function, the signals that mediate its antiapoptotic effect are largely unknown. Here we show that worms carrying an abl-1 deletion allele, abl-1(ok171), are specifically hypersensitive to radiation-induced apoptosis in the Caenorhabditis elegans germ line. Our findings delineate an apoptotic pathway antagonized by ABL-1, which requires sequentially the cell cycle checkpoint genes clk-2, hus-1 and mrt-2; the C. elegans p53 homolog, cep-1; and the genes encoding the components of the conserved apoptotic machinery, ced-3, ced-9 and egl-1. ABL-1 does not antagonize germline apoptosis induced by the DNA-alkylating agent ethylnitrosourea. Furthermore, worms treated with the c-Abl inhibitor STI-571 (Gleevec; used in human cancer therapy), two newly synthesized STI-571 variants or PD166326 had a phenotype similar to that generated by abl-1(ok171). These studies indicate that ABL-1 distinguishes proapoptotic signals triggered by two different DNA-damaging agents and suggest that C. elegans might provide tissue models for development of anticancer drugs.     

Functional genomic hypothesis generation and experimentation by a robot scientist

The question of whether it is possible to automate the scientific process is of both great theoretical interest and increasing practical importance because, in many scientific areas, data are being generated much faster than they can be effectively analysed. We describe a physically implemented robotic system that applies techniques from artificial intelligence to carry out cycles of scientific experimentation. The system automatically originates hypotheses to explain observations, devises experiments to test these hypotheses, physically runs the experiments using a laboratory robot, interprets the results to falsify hypotheses inconsistent with the data, and then repeats the cycle. Here we apply the system to the determination of gene function using deletion mutants of yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) and auxotrophic growth experiments. We built and tested a detailed logical model (involving genes, proteins and metabolites) of the aromatic amino acid synthesis pathway. In biological experiments that automatically reconstruct parts of this model, we show that an intelligent experiment selection strategy is competitive with human performance and significantly outperforms, with a cost decrease of 3-fold and 100-fold (respectively), both cheapest and random-experiment selection.     

Genome sequence of the Brown Norway rat yields insights into mammalian evolution

The laboratory rat (Rattus norvegicus) is an indispensable tool in experimental medicine and drug development, having made inestimable contributions to human health. We report here the genome sequence of the Brown Norway (BN) rat strain. The sequence represents a high-quality 'draft' covering over 90% of the genome. The BN rat sequence is the third complete mammalian genome to be deciphered, and three-way comparisons with the human and mouse genomes resolve details of mammalian evolution. This first comprehensive analysis includes genes and proteins and their relation to human disease, repeated sequences, comparative genome-wide studies of mammalian orthologous chromosomal regions and rearrangement breakpoints, reconstruction of ancestral karyotypes and the events leading to existing species, rates of variation, and lineage-specific and lineage-independent evolutionary events such as expansion of gene families, orthology relations and protein evolution.