Cointegration,error-correction models,and forecasting using realigned foreign exchange rates

This study employs error-correction models (ECMs) to forecast foreign exchange (FX) rates where the data-sampling procedures are consistent with the rules governing the settlement (delivery) of FX contracts in the FX market. The procedure involves thatching (aligning) the forward rate to the 'actual' realized (future) spot rate at the settlement (delivery) date. This approach facilitates the generation of five different sets of sub samples of FX rate series for each currency. For comparative purposes, non-aligned month-end rates are also examined. The results indicate that the moments of the realized forecast errors for the same currency are not similar. Further, the ECMs derived are unstable, and their forecasting performance vary. The forecasting performance of the ECMs appear to be affected by the choice of the interval in which the sets of sub samples are observed. These results are attributed to the observed seasonal variation in FX rates.     

Observation of scale invariance and universality in two-dimensional Bose gases

The collective behaviour of a many-body system near a continuous phase transition is insensitive to the details of its microscopic physics; for example, thermodynamic observables follow generalized scaling laws near the phase transition. The Berezinskii-Kosterlitz-Thouless (BKT) phase transition in two-dimensional Bose gases presents a particularly interesting case because the marginal dimensionality and intrinsic scaling symmetry result in a broad fluctuation regime and an extended range of universal scaling behaviour. Studies of the BKT transition in cold atoms have stimulated great interest in recent years, but a clear demonstration of critical behaviour near the phase transition has remained elusive. Here we report in situ density and density-fluctuation measurements of two-dimensional Bose gases of caesium at different temperatures and interaction strengths, observing scale-invariant, universal behaviours. The extracted thermodynamic functions confirm the existence of a wide universal region near the BKT phase transition, and provide a sensitive test of the universality predicted by classical-field theory and quantum Monte Carlo calculations. Our experimental results provide evidence for growing density-density correlations in the fluctuation region, and call for further explorations of universal phenomena in classical and quantum critical physics.     

Human ES-cell-derived cardiomyocytes electrically couple and suppress arrhythmias in injured hearts

Transplantation studies in mice and rats have shown that human embryonic-stem-cell-derived cardiomyocytes (hESC-CMs) can improve the function of infarcted hearts, but two critical issues related to their electrophysiological behaviour in vivo remain unresolved. First, the risk of arrhythmias following hESC-CM transplantation in injured hearts has not been determined. Second, the electromechanical integration of hESC-CMs in injured hearts has not been demonstrated, so it is unclear whether these cells improve contractile function directly through addition of new force-generating units. Here we use a guinea-pig model to show that hESC-CM grafts in injured hearts protect against arrhythmias and can contract synchronously with host muscle. Injured hearts with hESC-CM grafts show improved mechanical function and a significantly reduced incidence of both spontaneous and induced ventricular tachycardia. To assess the activity of hESC-CM grafts in vivo, we transplanted hESC-CMs expressing the genetically encoded calcium sensor, GCaMP3 (refs 4, 5). By correlating the GCaMP3 fluorescent signal with the host ECG, we found that grafts in uninjured hearts have consistent 1:1 host–graft coupling. Grafts in injured hearts are more heterogeneous and typically include both coupled and uncoupled regions. Thus, human myocardial grafts meet physiological criteria for true heart regeneration, providing support for the continued development of hESC-based cardiac therapies for both mechanical and electrical repair.     

Detection of human influence on sea-level pressure

Greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulphate aerosols--the main human influences on climate--have been shown to have had a detectable effect on surface air temperature, the temperature of the free troposphere and stratosphere and ocean temperature. Nevertheless, the question remains as to whether human influence is detectable in any variable other than temperature. Here we detect an influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols in observations of winter sea-level pressure (December to February), using combined simulations from four climate models. We find increases in sea-level pressure over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean, southern Europe and North Africa, and decreases in the polar regions and the North Pacific Ocean, in response to human influence. Our analysis also indicates that the climate models substantially underestimate the magnitude of the sea-level pressure response. This discrepancy suggests that the upward trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index (corresponding to strengthened westerlies in the North Atlantic region), as simulated in a number of global warming scenarios, may be too small, leading to an underestimation of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on European climate.     

Modulation of virulence within a pathogenicity island in vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecalis

Enterococci are members of the healthy human intestinal flora, but are also leading causes of highly antibiotic-resistant, hospital-acquired infection. We examined the genomes of a strain of Enterococcus faecalis that caused an infectious outbreak in a hospital ward in the mid-1980s (ref. 2), and a strain that was identified as the first vancomycin-resistant isolate in the United States, and found that virulence determinants were clustered on a large pathogenicity island, a genetic element previously unknown in this genus. The pathogenicity island, which varies only subtly between strains, is approximately 150 kilobases in size, has a lower G + C content than the rest of the genome, and is flanked by terminal repeats. Here we show that subtle variations within the structure of the pathogenicity island enable strains harbouring the element to modulate virulence, and that these variations occur at high frequency. Moreover, the enterococcal pathogenicity island, in addition to coding for most known auxiliary traits that enhance virulence of the organism, includes a number of additional, previously unstudied genes that are rare in non-infection-derived isolates, identifying a class of new targets associated with disease which are not essential for the commensal behaviour of the organism.     

Origins of major human infectious diseases

Many of the major human infectious diseases, including some now confined to humans and absent from animals, are 'new' ones that arose only after the origins of agriculture. Where did they come from? Why are they overwhelmingly of Old World origins? Here we show that answers to these questions are different for tropical and temperate diseases; for instance, in the relative importance of domestic animals and wild primates as sources. We identify five intermediate stages through which a pathogen exclusively infecting animals may become transformed into a pathogen exclusively infecting humans. We propose an initiative to resolve disputed origins of major diseases, and a global early warning system to monitor pathogens infecting individuals exposed to wild animals.     

The structure of a plant photosystem I supercomplex at 3.4 A resolution

All higher organisms on Earth receive energy directly or indirectly from oxygenic photosynthesis performed by plants, green algae and cyanobacteria. Photosystem I (PSI) is a supercomplex of a reaction centre and light-harvesting complexes. It generates the most negative redox potential in nature, and thus largely determines the global amount of enthalpy in living systems. We report the structure of plant PSI at 3.4 A resolution, revealing 17 protein subunits. PsaN was identified in the luminal side of the supercomplex, and most of the amino acids in the reaction centre were traced. The crystal structure of PSI provides a picture at near atomic detail of 11 out of 12 protein subunits of the reaction centre. At this level, 168 chlorophylls (65 assigned with orientations for Q(x) and Q(y) transition dipole moments), 2 phylloquinones, 3 Fe(4)S(4) clusters and 5 carotenoids are described. This structural information extends the understanding of the most efficient nano-photochemical machine in nature.