Forecasting Longevity Gains Using a Seemingly Unrelated Time Series Model

In this paper a multivariate time series model using the seemingly unrelated time series equation (SUTSE) framework is proposed to forecast longevity gains. The proposed model is represented in state space form and uses Kalman filtering to estimate the unobservable components and fixed parameters. We apply the model both to male mortality rates in Portugal and the USA. Our results compare favorably, in terms of mean absolute percentage error, in‐sample and out‐of‐sample, to those obtained by the Lee–Carter method and some of its extensions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mesenchymal–epithelial interactions during digestive tract development and epithelial stem cell regeneration

The gastrointestinal tract develops from a simple and uniform tube into a complex organ with specific differentiation patterns along the anterior–posterior and dorso-ventral axes of asymmetry. It is derived from all three germ layers and their cross-talk is important for the regulated development of fetal and adult gastrointestinal structures and organs. Signals from the adjacent mesoderm are essential for the morphogenesis of the overlying epithelium. These mesenchymal–epithelial interactions govern the development and regionalization of the different gastrointestinal epithelia and involve most of the key morphogens and signaling pathways, such as the Hedgehog, BMPs, Notch, WNT, HOX, SOX and FOXF cascades. Moreover, the mechanisms underlying mesenchyme differentiation into smooth muscle cells influence the regionalization of the gastrointestinal epithelium through interactions with the enteric nervous system. In the neonatal and adult gastrointestinal tract, mesenchymal–epithelial interactions are essential for the maintenance of the epithelial regionalization and digestive epithelial homeostasis. Disruption of these interactions is also associated with bowel dysfunction potentially leading to epithelial tumor development. In this review, we will discuss various aspects of the mesenchymal–epithelial interactions observed during digestive epithelium development and differentiation and also during epithelial stem cell regeneration.     

Increased migration of olfactory ensheathing cells secreting the Nogo receptor ectodomain over inhibitory substrates and lesioned spinal cord

Olfactory ensheathing cell (OEC) transplantation emerged some years ago as a promising therapeutic strategy to repair injured spinal cord. However, inhibitory molecules are present for long periods of time in lesioned spinal cord, inhibiting both OEC migration and axonal regrowth. Two families of these molecules, chondroitin sulphate proteoglycans (CSPG) and myelin-derived inhibitors (MAIs), are able to trigger inhibitory responses in lesioned axons. Mounting evidence suggests that OEC migration is inhibited by myelin. Here we demonstrate that OEC migration is largely inhibited by CSPGs and that inhibition can be overcome by the bacterial enzyme Chondroitinase ABC. In parallel, we have generated a stable OEC cell line overexpressing the Nogo receptor (NgR) ectodomain to reduce MAI-associated inhibition in vitro and in vivo. Results indicate that engineered cells migrate longer distances than unmodified OECs over myelin or oligodendrocyte-myelin glycoprotein (OMgp)-coated substrates. In addition, they also show improved migration in lesioned spinal cord. Our results provide new insights toward the improvement of the mechanisms of action and optimization of OEC-based cell therapy for spinal cord lesion.     

Massive glycosaminoglycan-dependent entry of Trp-containing cell-penetrating peptides induced by exogenous sphingomyelinase or cholesterol depletion

Among non-invasive cell delivery strategies, cell-penetrating peptide (CPP) vectors represent interesting new tools. To get fundamental knowledge about the still debated internalisation mechanisms of these peptides, we modified the membrane content of cells, typically by hydrolysis of sphingomyelin or depletion of cholesterol from the membrane outer leaflet. We quantified and visualised the effect of these viable cell surface treatments on the internalisation efficiency of different CPPs, among which the most studied Tat, R₉, penetratin and analogues, that all carry the N-terminal biotin-Gly₄ tag cargo. Under these cell membrane treatments, only penetratin and R₆W₃ underwent a massive glycosaminoglycan (GAG)-dependent entry in cells. Internalisation of the other peptides was only slightly increased, similarly in the absence or the presence of GAGs for R₉, and only in the presence of GAGs for Tat and R₆L₃. Ceramide formation (or cholesterol depletion) is known to lead to the reorganisation of membrane lipid domains into larger platforms, which can serve as a trap and cluster receptors. These results show that GAG clustering, enhanced by formation of ceramide, is efficiently exploited by penetratin and R₆W₃, which contains Trp residues in their sequence but not Tat, R₉ and R₆L₃. Hence, these data shed new lights on the differences in the internalisation mechanism and pathway of these peptides that are widely used in delivery of cargo molecules.     

Diet composition of an invasive population of Lithobates catesbeianus (American Bullfrog) from Argentina

The American bullfrog Lithobates catesbeianus has been introduced around the world, with invasive populations reported from almost all South American countries. A population of this species was introduced in the Calingasta department of San Juan province, which is an arid environment in western Argentina. This work provides information on the dietary composition of an invasive population of L. catesbeianus, and compares the degree of dietary overlap between adults and juveniles. Stomach contents of 169 bullfrogs (82 adults and 87 juveniles) were analysed. Adults consumed 40 prey taxa and Hymenoptera (Insecta) was the most numerous prey item (41.8%), followed by Araneae (13.6%) and Aeglidae (13.4%). Juveniles consumed 29 prey taxa and Hymenoptera constituted the highest percentage in prey number (77.2%). The trophic overlap niche index at the same level shows a value of 0.64 overlap in dietary community between adults and juveniles of this bullfrog. Aeglidae was volumetrically the most important trophic item (25.4%), followed by Anura (25.02%). Our results showed that cannibalism in bullfrogs is more common than the consumption of native anurans, coinciding with that reported in other populations of introduced bullfrogs. The high similarity in the diets of both size classes and the association between the size of the predator and prey suggest that the impact caused by bullfrogs throughout their ontogeny is high and probably has an impact on their prey. Freshwater crabs are the main items in the diet of Lithobates catesbeianus in other introduced populations and are usually the most conspicuous at our study site. The crabs in freshwater ecosystems are part of the lowest trophic level in the food chain. The major threats to the southern region’s freshwater crabs include deforestation, farming and exotic species. Lithobates catesbeianus has a generalist diet and high overlap between adults and juveniles.     

Shift-contagion in energy markets and global crisis

This paper presents an analysis of shift-contagion in energy markets, testing whether linkages between returns in energy markets increase during crisis periods. The research presented herein demonstrates how common movement between energy markets increases due to (i) shift-contagion across energy markets, reflected by structural transmission of shocks across markets and (ii) larger common shocks operating through standard cross-market interdependences. A regime-switching model was developed to detect shift-contagion across energy markets. In the approach adopted herein, the occurrence of shift-contagion is endogenously estimated rather than being exogenously assigned. The results show that shift-contagion has been a major feature of energy markets over the last decade. Evidence is presented which demonstrates that the linkages between energy markets do not appear to be stable. These results are remarkably accurate for forecasting Brent and natural gas for horizons for up to 50 days. Conversely, for WTI (West Texas Intermediate oil) and coal, the model performs well only for forecasting very short horizons (up to 20 days). For all products, the model shows significant biases for long horizons.