Plate tectonics of the Mediterranean region

The seismicity and fault plane solutions in the Mediterranean area show that two small rapidly moving plates exist in the Eastern Mediterranean, and such plates may be a common feature of contracting ocean basins. The results show that the concepts of plate tectonics apply to instantaneous motions across continental plate boundaries.     

Power transformation models and volatility forecasting

This paper considers the forecast accuracy of a wide range of volatility models, with particular emphasis on the use of power transformations. Where one‐period‐ahead forecasts are considered, the power autoregressive models are ranked first by a range of error metrics. Over longer forecast horizons, however, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models are preferred. A value‐at‐risk‐based forecast assessment indicates that, while the forecast errors are independent, they are not independent and identically distributed, although this latter result is sensitive to the choice of forecast horizon. Our results are robust across a number of different asset markets. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.