Nonlinear forecasting as a way of distinguishing chaos from measurement error in time series

An approach is presented for making short-term predictions about the trajectories of chaotic dynamical systems. The method is applied to data on measles, chickenpox, and marine phytoplankton populations, to show how apparent noise associated with deterministic chaos can be distinguished from sampling error and other sources of externally induced environmental noise.     

Host-parasitoid associations in patchy environments

Studies of insect host-parasitoid interactions have contributed much to the consensus that spatial patchiness is important in the regulation of natural populations. A variety of theoretical models predict that host and parasitoid populations, although unstable in the absence of environmental heterogeneity, may persist at roughly steady overall densities in a patchy environment owing to variation in levels of parasitism from patch to patch. Observed patterns of parasitism, however, have a variety of forms (with variation in attack rates among patches depending directly or indirectly on host density, or showing variation uncorrelated with host density). There is some confusion about the dynamical consequences of these different forms. Here we first show how the dynamical effects of all these forms of environmental heterogeneity can be assessed by a common criterion. This 'CV2 greater than 1 rule' states that the overall population densities will remain roughly steady from generation to generation if the coefficient of variation squared (CV2) of the density of searching parasitoids in the vicinity of each host exceeds approximately unity. By partitioning CV2 into components, we show that both direct and inverse patterns of dependence on host density, and density-independent patterns, all contribute to population regulation in the same way. Second, we show how a maximum-likelihood method can be applied to the kind of field data that are usually available (that is, percentage parasitism versus local host density) to estimate the components of CV2. This analysis indicates that heterogeneity is large enough to stabilize dynamics in 9 of 34 published studies, and that density-independent heterogeneity is the main factor in most cases.     

Detection of carbonates in dust shells around evolved stars.

Carbonates on large Solar System bodies like Earth and Mars (the latter represented by the meteorite ALH84001) form through the weathering of silicates in a watery (CO3)2- solution. The presence of carbonates in interplanetary dust particles and asteroids (again, represented by meteorites) is not completely understood, but has been attributed to aqueous alteration on a large parent body, which was subsequently shattered into smaller pieces. Despite efforts, the presence of carbonates outside the Solar System has hitherto not been established. Here we report the discovery of the carbonates calcite and dolomite in the dust shells of evolved stars, where the conditions are too primitive for the formation of large parent bodies with liquid water. These carbonates, therefore, are not formed by aqueous alteration, but perhaps through processes on the surfaces of dust or ice grains or gas phase condensation. The presence of carbonates which did not form by aqueous alteration suggests that some of the carbonates found in Solar System bodies no longer provide direct evidence that liquid water was present on large parent bodies early in the history of the Solar System.     

Genome sequence of enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli O157:H7

The bacterium Escherichia coli O157:H7 is a worldwide threat to public health and has been implicated in many outbreaks of haemorrhagic colitis, some of which included fatalities caused by haemolytic uraemic syndrome. Close to 75,000 cases of O157:H7 infection are now estimated to occur annually in the United States. The severity of disease, the lack of effective treatment and the potential for large-scale outbreaks from contaminated food supplies have propelled intensive research on the pathogenesis and detection of E. coli O157:H7 (ref. 4). Here we have sequenced the genome of E. coli O157:H7 to identify candidate genes responsible for pathogenesis, to develop better methods of strain detection and to advance our understanding of the evolution of E. coli, through comparison with the genome of the non-pathogenic laboratory strain E. coli K-12 (ref. 5). We find that lateral gene transfer is far more extensive than previously anticipated. In fact, 1,387 new genes encoded in strain-specific clusters of diverse sizes were found in O157:H7. These include candidate virulence factors, alternative metabolic capacities, several prophages and other new functions--all of which could be targets for surveillance.     

Microfluidic systems: high radial acceleration in microvortices

Microfluidic systems can conveniently be used for rapid analysis of biological samples. Here we describe a single re-circulating flow, or microvortex, that can generate a maximum fluid rotational velocity of up to 12 m s(-1) and a corresponding radial acceleration in excess of 10(6)g. Such microvortices may be exploited in centrifugal microdevices to investigate the effects of high radial acceleration on biological and chemical processes.