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In this paper we examine how BVARs can be used for forecasting cointegrated variables. We propose an approach based on a Bayesian ECM model in which, contrary to the previous literature, the factor loadings are given informative priors. This procedure, applied to Italian macroeconomic series, produces more satisfactory forecasts than different prior specifications or parameterizations. Providing an informative prior on the factor loadings is a crucial point: a flat prior on the ECM terms combined with an informative prior on the lagged endogenous variables coefficients gives too much importance to the long‐run properties with respect to the short‐run dynamics. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Silvia Lisa Massimiliano Meli Gema Cabello Ruth Gabizon Giorgio Colombo María Gasset 《Cellular and molecular life sciences : CMLS》2010,67(16):2825-2838
The conversion of the cellular prion protein (PrPC) into its disease-associated form (PrPSc) involves a major conformational change and the accumulation of sulfoxidized methionines. Computational and synthetic approaches
have shown that this change in the polarity of M206 and M213 impacts the C-terminal domain native α-fold allowing the flexibility
required for the structural conversion. To test the effect in the full-length molecule with site-specificity, we have generated
M-to-S mutations. Molecular dynamics simulations show that the replacement indeed perturbs the native state. When this mutation
is placed at the conserved methionines of HaPrP(23–231), only substitutions at the Helix-3 impair the α-fold, stabilizing
a non-native state with perturbed secondary structure, loss of native tertiary contacts, increased surface hydrophobicity,
reduced thermal stability and an enhanced tendency to aggregate into protofibrillar polymers. Our work supports that M206
and M213 function as α-fold gatekeepers and suggests that their redox state regulate misfolding routes. 相似文献
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The hedging of weather risks has become extremely relevant in recent years, promoting the diffusion of weather‐derivative contracts. The pricing of such contracts requires the development of appropriate models for the prediction of the underlying weather variables. Within this framework, a commonly used specification is the ARFIMA‐GARCH. We provide a generalization of such a model, introducing time‐varying memory coefficients. Our model satisfies the empirical evidence of the changing memory level observed in average temperature series, and provides useful improvements in the forecasting, simulation, and pricing issues related to weather derivatives. We present an application related to the forecast and simulation of a temperature index density, which is then used for the pricing of weather options. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Emerging topics and new perspectives on HLA-G 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Fainardi E Castellazzi M Stignani M Morandi F Sana G Gonzalez R Pistoia V Baricordi OR Sokal E Peña J 《Cellular and molecular life sciences : CMLS》2011,68(3):433-451
Following the Fifth International Conference on non-classical HLA-G antigens (HLA-G), held in Paris in July 2009, we selected
some topics which focus on emerging aspects in the setting of HLA-G functions. In particular, HLA-G molecules could play a
role in: (1) various inflammatory disorders, such as multiple sclerosis, intracerebral hemorrhage, gastrointestinal, skin
and rheumatic diseases, and asthma, where they may act as immunoregulatory factors; (2) the mechanisms to escape immune surveillance
utilized by several viruses, such as human cytomegalovirus, herpes simplex virus type 1, rabies virus, hepatitis C virus,
influenza virus type A and human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1); and (3) cytokine/chemokine network and stem cell transplantation,
since they seem to modulate cell migration by the downregulation of chemokine receptor expression and mesenchymal stem cell
activity blocking of effector cell functions and the generation of regulatory T cells. However, the immunomodulatory circuits
mediated by HLA-G proteins still remain to be clarified. 相似文献
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Diederik Aerts Jonito Aerts Arguëlles Lester Beltran Suzette Geriente Massimiliano Sassoli de Bianchi Sandro Sozzo Tomas Veloz 《Foundations of Science》2018,23(2):323-335
We present a cognitive psychology experiment where participants were asked to select pairs of spatial directions that they considered to be the best example of Two different wind directions. Data are shown to violate the CHSH version of Bell’s inequality with the same magnitude as in typical Bell-test experiments with entangled spins. Wind directions thus appear to be conceptual entities connected through meaning, in human cognition, in a similar way as spins appear to be entangled in experiments conducted in physics laboratories. This is the first part of a two-part article. In the second part (Aerts et al. in Found Sci, 2017) we present a symmetrized version of the same experiment for which we provide a quantum modeling of the collected data in Hilbert space. 相似文献
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Ephemeral Properties and the Illusion of Microscopic Particles 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
Massimiliano Sassoli de Bianchi 《Foundations of Science》2011,16(4):393-409
Founding our analysis on the Geneva-Brussels approach to quantum mechanics, we use conventional macroscopic objects as guiding examples to clarify the content of two important results of the beginning of twentieth century: Einstein?CPodolsky?CRosen??s reality criterion and Heisenberg??s uncertainty principle. We then use them in combination to show that our widespread belief in the existence of microscopic particles is only the result of a cognitive illusion, as microscopic particles are not particles, but are instead the ephemeral spatial and local manifestations of non-spatial and non-local entities. 相似文献
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