Forecasting cointegrated series with BVAR models

In this paper we examine how BVARs can be used for forecasting cointegrated variables. We propose an approach based on a Bayesian ECM model in which, contrary to the previous literature, the factor loadings are given informative priors. This procedure, applied to Italian macroeconomic series, produces more satisfactory forecasts than different prior specifications or parameterizations. Providing an informative prior on the factor loadings is a crucial point: a flat prior on the ECM terms combined with an informative prior on the lagged endogenous variables coefficients gives too much importance to the long‐run properties with respect to the short‐run dynamics. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The structural intolerance of the PrP α-fold for polar substitution of the helix-3 methionines

The conversion of the cellular prion protein (PrP^C) into its disease-associated form (PrP^Sc) involves a major conformational change and the accumulation of sulfoxidized methionines. Computational and synthetic approaches have shown that this change in the polarity of M206 and M213 impacts the C-terminal domain native α-fold allowing the flexibility required for the structural conversion. To test the effect in the full-length molecule with site-specificity, we have generated M-to-S mutations. Molecular dynamics simulations show that the replacement indeed perturbs the native state. When this mutation is placed at the conserved methionines of HaPrP(23–231), only substitutions at the Helix-3 impair the α-fold, stabilizing a non-native state with perturbed secondary structure, loss of native tertiary contacts, increased surface hydrophobicity, reduced thermal stability and an enhanced tendency to aggregate into protofibrillar polymers. Our work supports that M206 and M213 function as α-fold gatekeepers and suggests that their redox state regulate misfolding routes.     

Forecasting Temperature Indices Density with Time‐Varying Long‐Memory Models

The hedging of weather risks has become extremely relevant in recent years, promoting the diffusion of weather‐derivative contracts. The pricing of such contracts requires the development of appropriate models for the prediction of the underlying weather variables. Within this framework, a commonly used specification is the ARFIMA‐GARCH. We provide a generalization of such a model, introducing time‐varying memory coefficients. Our model satisfies the empirical evidence of the changing memory level observed in average temperature series, and provides useful improvements in the forecasting, simulation, and pricing issues related to weather derivatives. We present an application related to the forecast and simulation of a temperature index density, which is then used for the pricing of weather options. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Emerging topics and new perspectives on HLA-G

Following the Fifth International Conference on non-classical HLA-G antigens (HLA-G), held in Paris in July 2009, we selected some topics which focus on emerging aspects in the setting of HLA-G functions. In particular, HLA-G molecules could play a role in: (1) various inflammatory disorders, such as multiple sclerosis, intracerebral hemorrhage, gastrointestinal, skin and rheumatic diseases, and asthma, where they may act as immunoregulatory factors; (2) the mechanisms to escape immune surveillance utilized by several viruses, such as human cytomegalovirus, herpes simplex virus type 1, rabies virus, hepatitis C virus, influenza virus type A and human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1); and (3) cytokine/chemokine network and stem cell transplantation, since they seem to modulate cell migration by the downregulation of chemokine receptor expression and mesenchymal stem cell activity blocking of effector cell functions and the generation of regulatory T cells. However, the immunomodulatory circuits mediated by HLA-G proteins still remain to be clarified.     

Spin and Wind Directions I: Identifying Entanglement in Nature and Cognition

We present a cognitive psychology experiment where participants were asked to select pairs of spatial directions that they considered to be the best example of Two different wind directions. Data are shown to violate the CHSH version of Bell’s inequality with the same magnitude as in typical Bell-test experiments with entangled spins. Wind directions thus appear to be conceptual entities connected through meaning, in human cognition, in a similar way as spins appear to be entangled in experiments conducted in physics laboratories. This is the first part of a two-part article. In the second part (Aerts et al. in Found Sci, 2017) we present a symmetrized version of the same experiment for which we provide a quantum modeling of the collected data in Hilbert space.     

Ephemeral Properties and the Illusion of Microscopic Particles

Founding our analysis on the Geneva-Brussels approach to quantum mechanics, we use conventional macroscopic objects as guiding examples to clarify the content of two important results of the beginning of twentieth century: Einstein?CPodolsky?CRosen??s reality criterion and Heisenberg??s uncertainty principle. We then use them in combination to show that our widespread belief in the existence of microscopic particles is only the result of a cognitive illusion, as microscopic particles are not particles, but are instead the ephemeral spatial and local manifestations of non-spatial and non-local entities.