Overreaction in Survey Exchange Rate Forecasts

We use survey data on five bilateral exchange rates to provide empirical evidence of the fact that professional forecasters of foreign exchange rates behave irrationally, in the specific sense that they respond inaccurately to available information in the market when forming their predictions. In particular, we find systematic biases in the forecasts resulting in the overreaction of analysts to past information contained in the exchange rate dynamics: forecasters change their prediction more than it would be rational on the basis of past realized changes. In addition, forecasters are heterogeneous in their irrationality: low performers in previous periods show a more pronounced overreaction effect. This can be read as an indication of perpetration of past errors and continued inability to learn from the past. In the second part of the paper, we exploit the novel structure of our dataset, which consists of survey data extracted from the Bloomberg platform and readily available to anyone. This feature allows us to consider their own and others' past forecasts as part of the information set that analysts use in making their predictions. By using past forecasts as proxies for relevant macroeconomic variables, we find evidence that analysts fail to correctly process not only the information contained in the spot rate past dynamics but also the information in this broader set. We see this as confirmation of the existence of inefficiency and heterogeneity between low and high performers also when full information is available. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Raspailiidae (Porifera: Demospongiae: Axinellida) from the Mexican Pacific Ocean with the description of seven new species

The taxonomy of the family Raspailiidae has always been controversial. The family was first included in the order Poecilosclerida. It was then allocated to the order Axinellida and later moved back to Poecilosclerida. Currently with the development of molecular tools it has been assigned to the order Axinellida. In this contribution we describe 10 species from the Mexican Pacific Ocean. Seven of them are new to science: Raspailia (Parasyringella) rubra sp. nov., Raspailia (Raspaxilla) hymani (Dickinson 1945 Dickinson, MG. 1945. Sponges on the Gulf of California. Allan Hancock Pac Exp, 11(1): 1–251.  [Google Scholar]), Raspailia (Raspaxilla) hyle (de Laubenfels 1930 de Laubenfels, MW. 1930. The sponges of California. (Abstracts of dissertations for the degree of doctor of philosophy). Stanford Univ Bull, 5(98): 24–29.  [Google Scholar]), Aulospongus cerebella (Dickinson 1945 Dickinson, MG. 1945. Sponges on the Gulf of California. Allan Hancock Pac Exp, 11(1): 1–251.  [Google Scholar]), Aulospongus californianus sp. nov., Aulospongus aurantiacus sp. nov., Eurypon patriciae sp. nov., Eurypon tylospinosum sp. nov., Eurypon diversicolor sp. nov. and Eurypon brunus sp. nov. We discuss the genus Eurypon and include a table for all the species described worldwide with some comments about this genus. http://www.zoobank.org/urn:lsid:zoobank.org:pub:D462084B-EE9C-4C61-884A-C9DB70003B4A     

Packaging Radium,Selling Science: Boxes,Bottles and Other Mundane Things in the World of Science

This article discusses the intersection of science and culture in the marketplace and explores the ways in which radium quack and medicinal products were packaged and labelled in the early twentieth century US. Although there is an interesting growing body of literature by art historians on package design, historians of science and medicine have paid little to no attention to the ways scientific and medical objects that were turned into commodities were packaged and commercialized. Thinking about packages not as mere containers but as multifunctional tools adds to historical accounts of science as a sociocultural enterprise and reminds us that science has always been part of consumer culture. This paper suggests that far from being receptacles that preserve their content and facilitate their transportation, bottles and boxes that contained radium products functioned as commercial and epistemic devices. It was the 1906 Pure Food and Drug Act that enforced such functions. Packages worked as commercial devices in the sense that they were used to boost sales. In addition, ‘epistemic’ points to the fact that the package is an artefact that ascribes meaning to and shapes its content while at the same time working as a device for distinguishing between patent and orthodox medicines.     

Strong association of de novo copy number mutations with sporadic schizophrenia

Schizophrenia is an etiologically heterogeneous psychiatric disease, which exists in familial and nonfamilial (sporadic) forms. Here, we examine the possibility that rare de novo copy number (CN) mutations with relatively high penetrance contribute to the genetic component of schizophrenia. We carried out a whole-genome scan and implemented a number of steps for finding and confirming CN mutations. Confirmed de novo mutations were significantly associated with schizophrenia (P = 0.00078) and were collectively approximately 8 times more frequent in sporadic (but not familial) cases with schizophrenia than in unaffected controls. In comparison, rare inherited CN mutations were only modestly enriched in sporadic cases. Our results suggest that rare de novo germline mutations contribute to schizophrenia vulnerability in sporadic cases and that rare genetic lesions at many different loci can account, at least in part, for the genetic heterogeneity of this disease.     

X-linked Cornelia de Lange syndrome owing to SMC1L1 mutations

Cornelia de Lange syndrome is a multisystem developmental disorder characterized by facial dysmorphisms, upper limb abnormalities, growth delay and cognitive retardation. Mutations in the NIPBL gene, a component of the cohesin complex, account for approximately half of the affected individuals. We report here that mutations in SMC1L1 (also known as SMC1), which encodes a different subunit of the cohesin complex, are responsible for CdLS in three male members of an affected family and in one sporadic case.     

Sulfatase activities towards the regulation of cell metabolism and signaling in mammals

In higher vertebrates, sulfatases belong to a conserved family of enzymes that are involved in the regulation of cell metabolism and in developmental cell signaling. They cleave the sulfate from sulfate esters contained in hormones, proteins, and complex macromolecules. A highly conserved cysteine in their active site is post-translationally converted into formylglycine by the formylglycine-generating enzyme encoded by SUMF1 (sulfatase modifying factor 1). This post-translational modification activates all sulfatases. Sulfatases are extensively glycosylated proteins and some of them follow trafficking pathways through cells, being secreted and taken up by distant cells. Many proteoglycans, glycoproteins, and glycolipids contain sulfated carbohydrates, which are sulfatase substrates. Indeed, sulfatases operate as decoding factors for a large amount of biological information contained in the structures of the sulfated sugar chains that are covalently linked to proteins and lipids. Modifications to these sulfate groups have pivotal roles in modulating specific signaling pathways and cell metabolism in mammals.     

Physical activity and the endocannabinoid system: an overview

Recognized as a “disease modifier”, physical activity (PA) is increasingly viewed as a more holistic, cost-saving method for prevention, treatment and management of human disease conditions. The traditional view that PA engages the monoaminergic and endorphinergic systems has been challenged by the discovery of the endocannabinoid system (ECS), composed of endogenous lipids, their target receptors, and metabolic enzymes. Indeed, direct and indirect evidence suggests that the ECS might mediate some of the PA-triggered effects throughout the body. Moreover, it is now emerging that PA itself is able to modulate ECS in different ways. Against this background, in the present review we shall discuss evidence of the cross-talk between PA and the ECS, ranging from brain to peripheral districts and highlighting how ECS must be tightly regulated during PA, in order to maintain its beneficial effects on cognition, mood, and nociception, while avoiding impaired energy metabolism, oxidative stress, and inflammatory processes.     

On the chromosomic polymorphism ofRattus rattus L. a study on West-European populations

Riassunto Nell'ambito del problema del polimorfismo cromosomico diRattus rattus è stato studiato il cariotipo di varie popolazioni europee (Italia, Svizzera, Francia ed Inghilterra) riferibili alle sottospeciefrugivorus, rattus edalexandrinus. Il numero diploide osservato è sempre stato2n=38 e non è emersa nessuna differenza morfologica tra i cariogrammi delle varie popolazioni.

---

---

This research was supported by the Gruppo di Studio per le popolazioni insulari del C.N.R..