Exploring Survey‐Based Inflation Forecasts

This paper first shows that survey‐based expectations (SBE) outperform standard time series models in US quarterly inflation out‐of‐sample prediction and that the term structure of survey‐based inflation forecasts has predictive power over the path of future inflation changes. It then proposes some empirical explanations for the forecasting success of survey‐based inflation expectations. We show that SBE pool a large amount of heterogeneous information on inflation expectations and react more flexibly and accurately to macro conditions both contemporaneously and dynamically. We illustrate the flexibility of SBE forecasts in the context of the 2008 financial crisis. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Genome-wide copy number variation study associates metabotropic glutamate receptor gene networks with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder

Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a common, heritable neuropsychiatric disorder of unknown etiology. We performed a whole-genome copy number variation (CNV) study on 1,013 cases with ADHD and 4,105 healthy children of European ancestry using 550,000 SNPs. We evaluated statistically significant findings in multiple independent cohorts, with a total of 2,493 cases with ADHD and 9,222 controls of European ancestry, using matched platforms. CNVs affecting metabotropic glutamate receptor genes were enriched across all cohorts (P = 2.1 × 10(-9)). We saw GRM5 (encoding glutamate receptor, metabotropic 5) deletions in ten cases and one control (P = 1.36 × 10(-6)). We saw GRM7 deletions in six cases, and we saw GRM8 deletions in eight cases and no controls. GRM1 was duplicated in eight cases. We experimentally validated the observed variants using quantitative RT-PCR. A gene network analysis showed that genes interacting with the genes in the GRM family are enriched for CNVs in ～10% of the cases (P = 4.38 × 10(-10)) after correction for occurrence in the controls. We identified rare recurrent CNVs affecting glutamatergic neurotransmission genes that were overrepresented in multiple ADHD cohorts.     

Rediscovered population of Mexican Plateau spotted whiptail lizard, Aspidoscelis septemvittata , from México, D.F.

Multiple surveys carried out by herpetologists in México, D.F., during the 1980s failed to find specimens of Aspidoscelis septemvitatta (Squamata: Teiidae). However, 10 specimens were recently collected to the east of México, D.F., inside a protected area, Sierra de Santa Catarina. The Sierra de Santa Catarina has been heavily modified by human activity and habitation. Morphological and natural history information about the specimens are presented, as well as notes on locality.     

Identification of low-frequency variants associated with gout and serum uric acid levels

We tested 16 million SNPs, identified through whole-genome sequencing of 457 Icelanders, for association with gout and serum uric acid levels. Genotypes were imputed into 41,675 chip-genotyped Icelanders and their relatives, for effective sample sizes of 968 individuals with gout and 15,506 individuals for whom serum uric acid measurements were available. We identified a low-frequency missense variant (c.1580C>G) in ALDH16A1 associated with gout (OR = 3.12, P = 1.5 × 10(-16), at-risk allele frequency = 0.019) and serum uric acid levels (effect = 0.36 s.d., P = 4.5 × 10(-21)). We confirmed the association with gout by performing Sanger sequencing on 6,017 Icelanders. The association with gout was stronger in males relative to females. We also found a second variant on chromosome 1 associated with gout (OR = 1.92, P = 0.046, at-risk allele frequency = 0.986) and serum uric acid levels (effect = 0.48 s.d., P = 4.5 × 10(-16)). This variant is close to a common variant previously associated with serum uric acid levels. This work illustrates how whole-genome sequencing data allow the detection of associations between low-frequency variants and complex traits.     

Genome-wide association study identifies a new melanoma susceptibility locus at 1q21.3

We performed a genome-wide association study of melanoma in a discovery cohort of 2,168 Australian individuals with melanoma and 4,387 control individuals. In this discovery phase, we confirm several previously characterized melanoma-associated loci at MC1R, ASIP and MTAP-CDKN2A. We selected variants at nine loci for replication in three independent case-control studies (Europe: 2,804 subjects with melanoma, 7,618 control subjects; United States 1: 1,804 subjects with melanoma, 1,026 control subjects; United States 2: 585 subjects with melanoma, 6,500 control subjects). The combined meta-analysis of all case-control studies identified a new susceptibility locus at 1q21.3 (rs7412746, P = 9.0 × 10(-11), OR in combined replication cohorts of 0.89 (95% CI 0.85-0.95)). We also show evidence suggesting that melanoma associates with 1q42.12 (rs3219090, P = 9.3 × 10(-8)). The associated variants at the 1q21.3 locus span a region with ten genes, and plausible candidate genes for melanoma susceptibility include ARNT and SETDB1. Variants at the 1q21.3 locus do not seem to be associated with human pigmentation or measures of nevus density.     

A transition zone complex regulates mammalian ciliogenesis and ciliary membrane composition

Mutations affecting ciliary components cause ciliopathies. As described here, we investigated Tectonic1 (Tctn1), a regulator of mouse Hedgehog signaling, and found that it is essential for ciliogenesis in some, but not all, tissues. Cell types that do not require Tctn1 for ciliogenesis require it to localize select membrane-associated proteins to the cilium, including Arl13b, AC3, Smoothened and Pkd2. Tctn1 forms a complex with multiple ciliopathy proteins associated with Meckel and Joubert syndromes, including Mks1, Tmem216, Tmem67, Cep290, B9d1, Tctn2 and Cc2d2a. Components of this complex co-localize at the transition zone, a region between the basal body and ciliary axoneme. Like Tctn1, loss of Tctn2, Tmem67 or Cc2d2a causes tissue-specific defects in ciliogenesis and ciliary membrane composition. Consistent with a shared function for complex components, we identified a mutation in TCTN1 that causes Joubert syndrome. Thus, a transition zone complex of Meckel and Joubert syndrome proteins regulates ciliary assembly and trafficking, suggesting that transition zone dysfunction is the cause of these ciliopathies.     

Genome-wide association study reveals three susceptibility loci for common migraine in the general population

Migraine is a common, heterogeneous and heritable neurological disorder. Its pathophysiology is incompletely understood, and its genetic influences at the population level are unknown. In a population-based genome-wide analysis including 5,122 migraineurs and 18,108 non-migraineurs, rs2651899 (1p36.32, PRDM16), rs10166942 (2q37.1, TRPM8) and rs11172113 (12q13.3, LRP1) were among the top seven associations (P < 5 × 10(-6)) with migraine. These SNPs were significant in a meta-analysis among three replication cohorts and met genome-wide significance in a meta-analysis combining the discovery and replication cohorts (rs2651899, odds ratio (OR) = 1.11, P = 3.8 × 10(-9); rs10166942, OR = 0.85, P = 5.5 × 10(-12); and rs11172113, OR = 0.90, P = 4.3 × 10(-9)). The associations at rs2651899 and rs10166942 were specific for migraine compared with non-migraine headache. None of the three SNP associations was preferential for migraine with aura or without aura, nor were any associations specific for migraine features. TRPM8 has been the focus of neuropathic pain models, whereas LRP1 modulates neuronal glutamate signaling, plausibly linking both genes to migraine pathophysiology.