On the limitations of comparing mean square forecast errors

Linear models are invariant under non-singular, scale-preserving linear transformations, whereas mean square forecast errors (MSFEs) are not. Different rankings may result across models or methods from choosing alternative yet isomorphic representations of a process. One approach can dominate others for comparisons in levels, yet lose to another for differences, to a second for cointegrating vectors and to a third for combinations of variables. The potential for switches in ranking is related to criticisms of the inadequacy of MSFE against encompassing criteria, which are invariant under linear transforms and entail MSFE dominance. An invariant evaluation criterion which avoids misleading outcomes is examined in a Monte Carlo study of forecasting methods.     

灰铸铁的应力屈服曲面及其三维热弹塑性应力解析

对原有的灰铸铁件应力屈服曲面进行了合理的简化,使其在理论上合理,工程应用上更为方便。建立了灰铸铁件三维非稳态热弹塑性应力场的有限元方法。以灰铸铁哑铃件为对象,用新屈服曲面对其应力发展过程进行了模拟,且比较了用新旧屈服面计算得到的结果。     

Choroidal and iris angioarchitecture of the newt: A scanning electron-microscopic study of vascular corrosion casts

The corrosion cast technique provided for the first time an excellent three-dimensional visualization of the vascular pattern of the choroid and iris in the newt eye. The results show the presence of a single arterial afference to the choroidal and iris capillaries: the ophthalmic artery is the origin fo both ciliary arteries and the long posterior ciliary artery. Slightly behind the equatorial circumference of the eyeball the venous drainage consists of a single vessel on the dorsal side and two distinct vessels on the ventral one. It receives blood from both iris and choroid. The surface of the plastic endocasts shows some details of fine luminal structures of the endothelial cells. Shallow depressions may be regarded as imprints of endothelial cell nuclei, and they are distinctly different for arteries and capillaries. The angioarchitecture of the newt eye differs from that of brain in that hairpin-shaped capillary loops are not observed at all.     

Phenological studies of selected savanna mosses of south-western Nigeria

It was established that there is little diversity of bryophytes in the derived savanna. Mosses were found in the sampling sites, whereas liverworts were rarely observed. The reproductive methods of four dominant sexually reproducing savanna mosses —Archidium ohioense, Bryum coronatum, Fissidens minutifolius andTrachycarpidium tisserantii were monitored over two consecutive rainy seasons. Protonemal and gametophyte production were noticed in the field in March/April, and capsule dehiscence and spore dispersal occurred in September/October. The sequential stages of development, starting with gametangial production and ending with the falling of the dehisced capsules, occurred within the rainy season. However,A. ohioense andT. tisserantii did not discharge their spores easily (cleistocarpous), unlike the stegocarpous speciesB. coronatum andF. minutifolius. Water availability and possibly high humidity may have contributed to growth. The short period between sex organ formation and dehiscence of capsule seen in these studies, compared with the longer period in some temperate mosses, may be an advantage for bryophytes in a savanna environment.     

Ca2+ release induced by inositol 1,4,5-trisphosphate is a steady-state phenomenon controlled by luminal Ca2+ in permeabilized cells.

Low concentrations of inositol 1,4,5-trisphosphate (InsP3) evoke a very rapid mobilization of intracellular Ca2+ stores in many cell types, which can be followed by a further, much slower efflux. Two explanations have been suggested for this biphasic release. The first proposes that the Ca2+ stores vary in their sensitivity to InsP3, and each store releases either its entire contents or nothing (all-or-none release); the second proposes instead that the stores are uniformly sensitive to the effects of InsP3, but that they can release only a fraction of their Ca2+ before their sensitivity is somehow attenuated (steady-state release). Experiments using purified InsP3 receptor molecules reconstituted into lipid vesicles have shown heterogeneity of the receptors in their response to InsP3 under conditions in which the total Ca2+ level at both sides of the receptor is held constant. We now report that in permeabilized A7r5 smooth-muscle cells incubated in Ca(2+)-free medium, the amount of 45Ca2+ remaining in the stores after the rapid transient phase of release is independent of their initial Ca2+ levels, indicating that partially depleted stores are less sensitive to InsP3. Moreover, if the stores are reloaded with 40Ca2+ after the first stimulus, reapplication of the same low concentration of InsP3 will release further 45Ca2+. This recovery of InsP3 sensitivity is almost complete. Under these conditions, Ca2+ release must thus occur by a steady-state mechanism, in which the decreasing Ca2+ content of the stores slows down further release.     

Effects of vitamin B12 on plasma melatonin rhythm in humans: increased light sensitivity phase-advances the circadian clock?

Vitamin B12 (methylcobalamin) was administered orally (3 mg/day) to 9 healthy subjects for 4 weeks. Nocturnal melatonin levels after exposure to bright light (ca. 2500 lx) were determined, as well as the levels of plasma melatonin over 24 h. The timing of sleep was also recorded. Vitamin B12 was given blind to the subjects and crossed over with placebo. We found that the 24-h melatonin rhythm was significantly phase-advanced (1.1 h) in the vitamin B12 trial as compared with that in the placebo trial. In addition, the 24-h mean of plasma melatonin level was much lower in the vitamin B12 trial than with the placebo. Furthermore, the nocturnal melatonin levels during bright light exposure were significantly lower in the vitamin B12 trial than with the placebo. On the other hand, vitamin B12 did not affect the timing of sleep. These findings raise the possibility that vitamin B12 phase-advances the human circadian rhythm by increasing the light sensitivity of the circadian clock.