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71.
This paper assesses the information content of two survey indicators for consumption developments in the near future for eight European countries in the period 1985–1998. Empirical work on this topic typically focuses on consumer confidence, the perceptions of buyers of consumption goods. This paper examines whether perceptions of sellers of consumption goods, measured by retail trade surveys, may also improve short‐term monitoring of consumption. We find that both consumer confidence and retailer confidence embody valuable information, when analysed in isolation. For France, Italy and Spain we conclude that adding retail confidence does not improve the indicator model once consumer confidence has been included. For the UK the reverse case is obtained. For the remaining four countries we show that combining consumer sentiment and retail trade confidence into a composite indicator leads to optimal results. Our results suggest that incorporating information from retail trade surveys may offer significant benefits for the analysis of short‐term prospects of consumption. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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It is well known that transmitter secretion requires specialized secretory organelles, the synaptic vesicles, for the packaging, storage and exocytotic release of the transmitter. Here we report that when acetylcholine (ACh) is loaded into an isolated Xenopus myocyte, there is spontaneous quantal release of ACh from the myocyte which results in activation of its own surface ACh channels and the appearance of membrane currents resembling miniature endplate currents. This myocyte secretion probably reflects Ca(2+)-regulated exocytosis of ACh-filled cytoplasmic compartments. Furthermore, step depolarization of the myocyte membrane triggers evoked ACh release from the myocyte with a weak excitation-secretion coupling. These findings suggest that quantal transmitter secretion does not require secretory pathways unique to neurons and that the essence of presynaptic differentiation may reside in the provision of transmitter supply and modification of the preexisting secretion pathway. 相似文献
75.
Nicholas R. Farnum 《Journal of forecasting》1992,11(1):47-56
When using simple exponential smoothing on a given time series the nature of the relationship between the optimal smoothing constant and the autocorrelation structure of the series remains an unresolved question. Although numerical search routines can easily be used to find optimal values of the smoothing constant, they offer little insight into the nature of the relationship between the estimated smoothing constant and the structure of the underlying time series. We suggest that renewed investigations of the ex-post sum of squares function may prove helpful in this pursuit. Results are presented that illustrate how the optimal smoothing constant depends upon the value used to initialize the smoothing and upon the sample autocorrelation coefficients of the observed series. These results are based on a new formula for the derivative of the ex-post sum of squares function. In particular, the derivative is examined near 0 and 1, where great simplifications occur in its form, thereby facilitating investigations near these points. A necessary and sufficient condition is stated for when the ex-post sum of squares must have a positive derivative at 0 and the autocorrelation coefficients of the differenced series are shown to affect the sign of the derivative near 1. Based on these results, a general algorithm is presented as an alternative to grid search routines for minimizing the ex-post sum of squares. 相似文献
76.
Human cytomegalovirus UL97 open reading frame encodes a protein that phosphorylates the antiviral nucleoside analogue ganciclovir. 总被引:32,自引:0,他引:32
Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV, a betaherpes virus) is the cause of serious disease in immunologically compromised individuals, including those with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. One of the compounds used in the chemotherapy of HCMV infections is the nucleoside analogue 9-(1,3-dihydroxy-2-propoxymethyl)-guanine (ganciclovir). The mechanism of action of this drug is dependent on the formation of the nucleoside triphosphate, which is a strong inhibitor of the viral DNA polymerase. Thymidine kinase, which is encoded by many of the herpesviruses, catalyses the initial phosphorylation of ganciclovir. But there is no evidence for the coding of this enzyme by HCMV, and DNA sequence analysis of the HCMV genome has shown that there is no open reading frame characteristic of a herpesvirus thymidine kinase. Here we present biochemical and immunological evidence that the HCMV UL97 open reading frame codes for a protein capable of phosphorylating ganciclovir. This protein seems to be responsible for the selectivity of ganciclovir and will be useful tool in the understanding and refinement of the antiviral activity of new selective anti-HCMV compounds. 相似文献
77.
A. F. McDonagh Y. -M. Pu D. A. Lightner 《Cellular and molecular life sciences : CMLS》1992,48(3):246-248
The characteristic circular dichroism of bilirubin bound to human serum albumin undergoes a remarkable sign inversion on addition of halothane, chloroform and other volatile anesthetics. This sign inversion, which is completely reversed by removal of the anesthetic, reflects a pronounced conformational change of the bound ligand; probably a complete inversion of chirality. The observation suggests that association of volatile anesthetics with proteins can markedly alter the internal topography of receptor sites and potentially influence the stereoselectivity of ligand binding. 相似文献
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S. J. Leybourne 《Journal of forecasting》1993,12(1):49-62
A linear regression model with random walk coefficients is extended to allow for linear restrictions between the coefficients to be satisfied at each point in time. Estimation in this model is shown to be no more involved than estimation in the standard model. It is also demonstrated how, after a slight modification to the testing problem, classical test procedures may be applied to the problem of testing for such restrictions. The performance of the Lagrange Multiplier test for a variety of different restrictions is then investigated via simulation. An empirical application involving testing for homogeneity in a random walk coefficient version of the AIDS model is given. 相似文献