Forecasting volatility by means of threshold models

The aim of this paper is to compare the forecasting performance of competing threshold models, in order to capture the asymmetric effect in the volatility. We focus on examining the relative out‐of‐sample forecasting ability of the SETAR‐Threshold GARCH (SETAR‐TGARCH) and the SETAR‐Threshold Stochastic Volatility (SETAR‐THSV) models compared to the GARCH model and Stochastic Volatility (SV) model. However, the main problem in evaluating the predictive ability of volatility models is that the ‘true’ underlying volatility process is not observable and thus a proxy must be defined for the unobservable volatility. For the class of nonlinear state space models (SETAR‐THSV and SV), a modified version of the SIR algorithm has been used to estimate the unknown parameters. The forecasting performance of competing models has been compared for two return time series: IBEX 35 and S&P 500. We explore whether the increase in the complexity of the model implies that its forecasting ability improves. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Channel Mismatching in Sidelobe Canceler: Limitations and Remedies

After a brief recall of the Sidelobe Canceler (SLC) working principle, including the derivation of a general formula for the Cancellation Ratio (CR), the effects of channel mismatching are investigated. In particular, curves providing CRvalues as a function of amplitude and phase channel mismatching, radar bandwidth, and jammer direction of arrival (JDOA) are provided for the cases of one and two auxiliary antennas. Subsequently, a time -space processor for performance restoration is analyzed in detail. In addition to the above mentioned quantities, the attainable CR value is expressed as a function of the space-time processor parameters. The contribution of the paper is related to the derivation of a number of mathematical equations of CR for several cases of practical interest for the radar engineer. In addition, several curves are presented to assist design of SLC systems.