Subset threshold autoregression

We develop in this paper an efficient way to select the best subset threshold autoregressive model. The proposed method uses a stochastic search idea. Differing from most conventional approaches, our method does not require us to fix the delay or the threshold parameters in advance. By adopting the Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques, we can identify the best subset model from a very large of number of possible models, and at the same time estimate the unknown parameters. A simulation experiment shows that the method is very effective. In its application to the US unemployment rate, the stochastic search method successfully selects lag one as the time delay and five best models from more than 4000 choices. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Genetic and photoperiodic control of an avian reproductive cycle

European blackcaps,Sylvia atricapilla, with one breeding season per year, have a single-peaked annual testes cycle. However, African conspecifics from the Cape Verde Islands with two breeding seasons per annum demonstrate a two-peaked cycle. Both population-specific cycles reflect differences in the respective endogenous circannual rhythms. Experimental hybridization of birds of the two populations resulted in an intermediate pattern of testes cycle, thus demonstrating that there are genetic components for some temporal aspects in an avian reproductive cycle. Another characteristic of the African birds, their extremely rapid juvenile development and early sexual maturity (at an age of 5–6 months) proved largely to be a photoperiodic (short-day) effect in birds hatched in autumn. The same effect could also be induced in European conspecifics exposed to correspondingly short day-lengths.     

Cartesian causation: body–body interaction, motion, and eternal truths

There is considerable debate among scholars over whether Descartes allowed for genuine body–body interaction. I begin by considering Michael Della Rocca’s recent claim that Descartes accepted such interaction, and that his doctrine of the creation of the eternal truths indicates how this interaction could be acceptable to him. Though I agree that Descartes was inclined to accept real bodily causes of motion, I differ from Della Rocca in emphasizing that his ontology ultimately does not allow for them. This is not the end of the story however, since two of Descartes’s successors offered incompatible ways of developing his conflicted account of motion. I contrast the occasionalist view of Nicolas Malebranche that changes in motion derive directly from divine volitions with the non-occasionalist claim of Pierre-Sylvain Regis that such changes derive from a nature distinct from God. In light of Della Rocca’s interpretation, it is noteworthy that the issue of eternal truths is relevant to both alternative accounts. Indeed, Regis took the doctrine that such truths are created to provide crucial support for his alternative to an occasionalist account of body–body interaction. What does not help Della Rocca, however, is that Regis’s view of motion requires a fundamental revision of Descartes’s ontology.     

基于Windows NT的HRPS-Ⅱ设备的控制系统设计

介绍了华中科技大学开发的HRPS-Ⅱ型选择性激光烧结设备的体系结构，根据选择性激光烧结的工作原理并结合该系统的硬件结构开发了基于NT操作系统下的控制软件．该控制软件是一种分层的结构，各个不同优先级的任务在不同的层面上运行，实时性强的部分运行在硬件中断级别上，对控制软件的关键性技术进行了描述．通过试验运行，该设备成功地加工出了复杂的原型件，证明控制系统开发是成功的．     

Darstellung doppelbrechender Lipoidtropfen aus dem Serum

Summary (1) Doubly refracting lipoid droplets can be demonstrated in normal and pathological sera by means of alcohol ether extraction. This is not possible with ether extraction alone.(2) These lipoid droplets can be demonstrated only, or almost only, when they are precipitated out of alcohol or ether alcohol     

Hydrobiologische Anstalt Plön der Max-Planck-Gesellschaft zur Förderung der Wissenschaften

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Experimental Observables on Nuclear Liquid Gas Phase Transition

Progress on nuclear liquid gas phase transition （LGPT） or critical behavior has been simply reviewed and some signals of LGPT in heavy ion collisions, especially in NIMROD data, are focused. These signals include the power-law charge distribution, the largest fluctuation of the fragment observables, the nuclear Zipf law, caloric curve and critical exponent analysis etc.     

Réactions cytologiques à l'introduction pulmonaire expérimentale de particules de silicium métalloïdique

Summary By means of intratracheal injection, particles of metalloid silicium about five microns in size are introduced into the lungs of guinea pigs, and the secondary parenchymatous reactions are studied from 10 minutes to 105 days. In the dust cells, the silicium is progressively broken up into very small particles of less than 1 micron in size. The cells do not show degeneration or mummification as the ordinary silica cells (Mavrogordato) do.     

生态社会的召唤

人类发现自身陷入一种境地，在那里似乎没有真正意义的途径使我们从围绕自身的技术型企业中解脱出来，所以我们需要创造一个走向生态纪元的社会。很多社团近期已经热心于进入一个生态社会并在一些领域采取行动，这些领域便是新故事、生物区域主义以及生态特征。     

Rare Earth Doped Polymer Waveguide Materials and Devices

1 Results Rare earth doped waveguide amplifiers and devices have been demonstrated in silica, crystal and other glass hosts. These rare earth doped optical waveguide devices are based on inorganic materials. Many processing steps are required and can lead to long fabrication time and low yield.Polymer materials offer many distinct properties compared to inorganic materials, such as ease of fabrication, low production costs, simple processing steps, and compatibility with micro-fabrication technologies. ...