The role of macroeconometric models in forecasting and policy analysis in the united states

This article stresses how little is known about the quality, particularly the relative quality, of macroeconometric models. Most economists make a strict distinction between the quality of a model per se and the accuracy of solutions based on that model. While this distinction is valid, it leaves unanswered how to compare the‘validity’of conditional models. The standard test, the accuracy of ex post simulations, is not definitive when models with differing degrees of exogeneity are compared. In addition, it is extremely difficult to estimate the relative quantitative importance of conceptual problems of models, such as parameter instability across‘policy regimes’ In light of the difficulty in comparisons of conditional macroeconometric models, many model-builders and users assume that the best models are those that have been used to make the most accurate forecasts are those made with the best models. Forecasting experience indicates that forecasters using macroeconometric models have produced more accurate macroeconomic forecasts than either naive or sophisticated unconditional statistical models. It also suggests that judgementally adjusted forecasts have been more accurate than model-based forecasts generated mechanically. The influence of econometrically-based forecasts is now so pervasive that it is difficult to find examples of‘purely judgemental’forecasts.     

Adenosine promoted accumulation of adenosine 3′,5′-monophosphate in rabbit vagus nerve

Summary Desheathed rabbit vagus nerve has been found to form cyclic AMP when incubated with adenosine. This accumulation of cyclic AMP is inhibited by theophylline but not by antiadrenergic agents, anticholinergic agents or local anaesthetics. Depolarizing media are not able to promote cyclic AMP accumulation in this preparation.Acknowledgment. We gratefully acknowledge Mr.G. Jones for valuable discussion, MrsM. Moosmayer and Mr.S. Ferrara for expert technical assistance and Swiss National Science Foundation for grant support (Nr. 3.478.0.75).     

Effect of gum Arabic on aminopyrine demethylation in rats

Summary Stimulation of aminopyrine demethylation induced in rats by oral or i.p. administration of phenobarbital was partially inhibited in animals receiving daily treatments of 2×200 mg/kg gum Arabic p.o.     

Retroviral antigens on gs- chf- leukocytes

It has recently been suggested that the endogenous retroviruses present in many different species might be involved during stimulation of the immune system of their hosts. We have now studied the expression of two avian retroviral antigens p27 and gp85 in chicken lymphoid cells by indirect immunofluorescence (IIF) and by complement-dependent microcytotoxicity (CDM). We have now found that these viral antigens are expressed in peripheral blood leukocytes of adults and embryos and in splenic and bursal lymphocytes of Spafas gs- chf- chickens but they are not expressed in fibroblasts cultured from the feather follicles of the same individual adult birds nor in fibroblasts cultured from embryos of the same flock. The differential expression of viral antigens in leukocytes may be related to a specific property or function of these cells.     

Solubility of the neurosecretory products of Crepidula fornicata Phil., a prosobranch mullusk]

Study of solubility of neurosecretory products in Crepidula fornicata shows that the presence of ethanol in the fixative is incompatible with good fixation. This character permits the choice of a more effective extraction technique. An experimental study in organ culture shows that the action of differentiation of brain appears in the extract obtained by this method.     

The lambda phage att site: functional limits and interaction with Int protein

Site specific integrative recombination of bacteriophage lambda involves unequal partners. The minimal phage att site is composed of approximately 240-base pairs and four distinct binding sites for Int protein, at least three of which are crucial for function. This 'donor site' recombines efficiently with a smaller 'recipient site' that lacks the extensive interactions with Int protein.     

Regulation of non-muscle myosin assembly by calmodulin-dependent light chain kinase

The presence of actin and myosin in non-muscle cells suggests that they may be involved in a wide range of cellular contractile activities. The generally accepted view is that interaction between actin and myosin in these cells and in vertebrate smooth muscle, is regulated by the level of phosphorylation of the 20,000-molecular weight (MW) light chain. In the absence of calcium, this light chain is not phosphorylated and the myosin cannot interact with actin. Calcium activates a specific calmodulin-dependent kinase which phosphorylates the light chain, initiating actin-myosin interaction. Although most studies on the role of phosphorylation have concentration on the regulation of actin-activated myosin Mg-ATPase activity, phosphorylation of the light chain also seems to control the assembly of smooth muscle myosin into filaments. Using purified smooth muscle light chain kinase, we have confirmed this observation. We report here studies of myosins isolated from the two non-muscle sources, thymus cells and platelets. We observed that these myosins are assembled into filaments at physiological ionic strength and Mg-ATP concentrations, only when the 20,000-MW light chain is phosphorylated.