Henderson‐Trending of Macroeconomic Variables and Forecasting Accuracy

Using a structural time‐series model, the forecasting accuracy of a wide range of macroeconomic variables is investigated. Specifically of importance is whether the Henderson moving‐average procedure distorts the underlying time‐series properties of the data for forecasting purposes. Given the weight of attention in the literature to the seasonal adjustment process used by various statistical agencies, this study hopes to address the dearth of literature on ‘trending’ procedures. Forecasts using both the trended and untrended series are generated. The forecasts are then made comparable by ‘detrending’ the trended forecasts, and comparing both series to the realised values. Forecasting accuracy is measured by a suite of common methods, and a test of significance of difference is applied to the respective root mean square errors. It is found that the Henderson procedure does not lead to deterioration in forecasting accuracy in Australian macroeconomic variables on most occasions, though the conclusions are very different between the one‐step‐ahead and multi‐step‐ahead forecasts. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Roost sites used by Sandhill Crane staging along the Platte River, Nebraska

We assessed the influence of water depth, extent of unobstructed view, and human disturbance features on use of roost sites by Sandhill Cranes along the Platte River, Nebraska, during spring migratory stopover. Aerial photos taken near dawn were used to determine areas of flock use and habitat availability in four sample reaches, and measurements were made on the ground at flock roost areas. In general, depths of 1-13 cm were used by sandhill cranes in greater proportion than those available. Exposed sandbars and depths >20 cm were avoided, while depths of 14-19 cm were used in proportion to their availability. Sites 11-50 m from the nearest visual obstruction were used significantly greater than their availability, while sites 0-4 and >50 m from visual obstructions were avoided. Sandhill Cranes avoided sites near paved roads, gravel roads, single dwellings, and bridges when selecting roost sites; however, they did not appear to be disturbed by private roads, groups of residential buildings, gravel pits, railroads, or electrical transmission lines.     

Recovery of Gambel oak after fire in central Utah

The height of oak ( Quercus gambelii Nutt.) stems was measured on several fire scars within the Uinta National Forest and vicinity and compared with the height of oak stems on adjacent, nonburned areas. A significant relationship exists between the recovery rate of oak after fire and elevation, with the recovery rate being greatest at low elevations. A trend also exists showing that recovery tends to be greater on south to westerly exposures than on north to easterly exposures.     

Ecological comparison of sympatric populations of sand lizards ( Cophosaurus texanus and Callisaurus draconoides )

Sympatric populations of Cophosaurus texanus and Callisaurus draconoides were periodically sampled from March 1973 through April 1974 at Burro Creek, Mohave County, Arizona. Callisaurus were also sampled at Rock Valley, Nye County, Nevada. Sex ratios were skewed in favor of males in the adult Cophosaurus but were equal in both adult populations of Callisaurus. Both species became sexually mature as yearlings. Mean clutch sizes were 3.55 (±0.83) for Cophosaurus, and 4.25 (±1.08) and 5.07 (±1.33) for Callisaurus at Burro Creek and Rock Valley respectively. Evidence of multiple clutches was exhibited by both species. Egg weight/body weight ratios for both species and clutch weight/body weight ratios for Cophosaurus were notably smaller than previously reported. At Burro Creek both species were highly insectivorus, with orthopterans comprising the largest food group of each. Niche overlap for food was high at the ordinal level, but at the familial level it is apparent that Callisaurus probably fed in the more xeric areas of the riparian habitat. No differences were found in the temperature responses of these two lizards. However, minor temporal separations and substantial spatial partitioning were observed. Callisaurus preferred sandy open areas, while Cophosaurus preferred the presence of some rocks and boulders.     

Influence of prey movement on the aim of predatory strikes of the western rattlesnake ( Crotalus Viridis )

The purpose of this study was to determine whether the western rattlesnake ( Crotalus viridis ) aims its predatory strike at the head/thorax region of mice primarily on the basis of cues related to the direction of prey movement. We hypothesized that when rattlesnakes strike at anesthetized, backward-moving mice, most strikes would be aimed at the forward-most-moving region, i.e., the posterior (abdomen/tail) region of prey. However, most mice were struck in the anterior (head/thorax) region, implying that the visual-infrared image of mice, rather than directional movement, guides the aim of predatory strikes.     

Mechanism of ubiquitin activation revealed by the structure of a bacterial MoeB-MoaD complex.

The activation of ubiquitin and related protein modifiers is catalysed by members of the E1 enzyme family that use ATP for the covalent self-attachment of the modifiers to a conserved cysteine. The Escherichia coli proteins MoeB and MoaD are involved in molybdenum cofactor (Moco) biosynthesis, an evolutionarily conserved pathway. The MoeB- and E1-catalysed reactions are mechanistically similar, and despite a lack of sequence similarity, MoaD and ubiquitin display the same fold including a conserved carboxy-terminal Gly-Gly motif. Similar to the E1 enzymes, MoeB activates the C terminus of MoaD to form an acyl-adenylate. Subsequently, a sulphurtransferase converts the MoaD acyl-adenylate to a thiocarboxylate that acts as the sulphur donor during Moco biosynthesis. These findings suggest that ubiquitin and E1 are derived from two ancestral genes closely related to moaD and moeB. Here we present the crystal structures of the MoeB-MoaD complex in its apo, ATP-bound, and MoaD-adenylate forms, and highlight the functional similarities between the MoeB- and E1-substrate complexes. These structures provide a molecular framework for understanding the activation of ubiquitin, Rub, SUMO and the sulphur incorporation step during Moco and thiamine biosynthesis.