Which survey indicators are useful for monitoring consumption? Evidence from European countries

This paper assesses the information content of two survey indicators for consumption developments in the near future for eight European countries in the period 1985–1998. Empirical work on this topic typically focuses on consumer confidence, the perceptions of buyers of consumption goods. This paper examines whether perceptions of sellers of consumption goods, measured by retail trade surveys, may also improve short‐term monitoring of consumption. We find that both consumer confidence and retailer confidence embody valuable information, when analysed in isolation. For France, Italy and Spain we conclude that adding retail confidence does not improve the indicator model once consumer confidence has been included. For the UK the reverse case is obtained. For the remaining four countries we show that combining consumer sentiment and retail trade confidence into a composite indicator leads to optimal results. Our results suggest that incorporating information from retail trade surveys may offer significant benefits for the analysis of short‐term prospects of consumption. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A ground‐level ozone forecasting model for Santiago,Chile

A physically based model for ground‐level ozone forecasting is evaluated for Santiago, Chile. The model predicts the daily peak ozone concentration, with the daily rise of air temperature as input variable; weekends and rainy days appear as interventions. This model was used to analyse historical data, using the Linear Transfer Function/Finite Impulse Response (LTF/FIR) formalism; the Simultaneous Transfer Function (STF) method was used to analyse several monitoring stations together. Model evaluation showed a good forecasting performance across stations—for low and high ozone impacts—with power of detection (POD) values between 70 and 100%, Heidke's Skill Scores between 40% and 70% and low false alarm rates (FAR). The model consistently outperforms a pure persistence forecast. Model performance was not sensitive to different implementation options. The model performance degrades for two‐ and three‐days ahead forecast, but is still acceptable for the purpose of developing an environmental warning system at Santiago. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The gene encoding ganglioside-induced differentiation-associated protein 1 is mutated in axonal Charcot-Marie-Tooth type 4A disease.

We identified three distinct mutations and six mutant alleles in GDAP1 in three families with axonal Charcot-Marie-Tooth (CMT) neuropathy and vocal cord paresis, which were previously linked to the CMT4A locus on chromosome 8q21.1. These results establish the molecular etiology of CMT4A (MIM 214400) and suggest that it may be associated with both axonal and demyelinating phenotypes.     

基于概念图的超文本网页学习适应性机制研究

从概念图和超文本结构特点的相似性出发,分析了超文本网页的自适应方式和机制结构,提出适应性超文本链接的路径分类,对适应性超文本网页的结构设计提出了一些可行的建议.     

1999—2001年《系统工程理论与实践》载文统计分析

对1999－2001年《系统工程理论与实践》所载论文从数量、内容、地区分布、系统分布和引文分布情况进行计量分析，各项统计结果显示，该杂志：1）载文信息量大，论文内容具有很强的导向和推动作用；2）期刊定位准确，具有独特的学术风格；3）作者体覆盖面广，但又集中于经济、科技较发达的地区；4）近期引文率高，载文内容新颖。     

基因技术对传统伦理道德的冲击

基因技术的发展使许多传统的伦理道德观念面临着挑战，文章将其主要归结为生命观、公平观和家庭观三个方面，并将基因技术对此三个方面的冲击加以分析。     

太阳活动11年周期的形成原因新探

太阳活动11年周期的形成原因，是天文学中的一个古老课题，至今没有一个完全令人满意的解释。本文的研究使 “行星引潮力说”再次复活。     

论企业产权与会计信息失真

从会计和产权的角度出发,分析了我国会计信息失真原因,提出了相应的治理措施。     

对卷烟零售终端的分析及控制方法的探讨

探讨了烟草销售行业改革的迫切性,分析了卷烟零售终端中存在的问题,提出了解决这些问题的办法,并探讨了建设网络销售终端的优势。     

企业负债经营探讨

通过对企业负债经营的研究,从其含义、特征等多角度入手,阐述了当前经济条件下我国企业负债经营应注意的一些问题。提出企业要正确运用负债经营这一策略,合理把握负债的尺度,使企业朝着健康有序的方向发展。