Local to unity,long‐horizon forecasting thresholds for model selection in the AR(1)

This article introduces a novel framework for analysing long‐horizon forecasting of the near non‐stationary AR(1) model. Using the local to unity specification of the autoregressive parameter, I derive the asymptotic distributions of long‐horizon forecast errors both for the unrestricted AR(1), estimated using an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, and for the random walk (RW). I then identify functions, relating local to unity ‘drift’ to forecast horizon, such that OLS and RW forecasts share the same expected square error. OLS forecasts are preferred on one side of these ‘forecasting thresholds’, while RW forecasts are preferred on the other. In addition to explaining the relative performance of forecasts from these two models, these thresholds prove useful in developing model selection criteria that help a forecaster reduce error. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Action Research: Its Role in the University/Business Relationship

The Action Research (AR) PhD program at Monash University had its genesis in Systems Thinking and Organizational Learning. This paper discusses the role of the university in AR projects in business and the central role that AR projects can have in a Faculty's strategic positioning. The issues that have emerged in the project to date are discussed.     

如何制造人体器官

很久以来,器官的排异性和捐赠器官的缺乏一直困扰着器官移植病人。最近,美国威斯康星大学的研究人员宣布,用干细胞可生长出人体器官,这种干细胞是迄今发现的发育最不成熟的人类细胞。科学家们当其在胚胎中尚未明确发育方向时将其取出,在一定方向对其施以一定的刺激,它们便可发育成肝脏、心脏、大脑或各种骨骼。对于全世界的医生来说,这一发现无疑预示着一个医学新纪元即将来临。虽然美国国会有人反对从丢弃的胚胎和人工流产的胎儿身上获取干细胞进行研究,甚至有70名立法人员在一封措辞坚定的信中要求联邦政府禁止一切此类研究,然而…     

The analysis of free-sorting data: Beyond pairwise cooccurrences

Free-sorting data are obtained when subjects are given a set of objects and are asked to divide them into subsets. Such data are usually reduced by counting for each pair of objects, how many subjects placed both of them into the same subset. The present study examines the utility of a group of additional statistics. the cooccurrences of sets of three objects. Because there are dependencies among the pair and triple cooccurrences, adjusted triple similarity statistics are developed. Multidimensional scaling and cluster analysis — which usually use pair similarities as their input data — can be modified to operate on three-way similarities to create representations of the set of objects. Such methods are applied to a set of empirical sorting data: Rosenberg and Kim's (1975) fifteen kinship terms.The author thanks Phipps Arabie, Lawrence Hubert, Lawrence Jones, Ed Shoben, and Stanley Wasserman for their considerable contributions to this paper.