United Kingdom: The Corporate Strategy for 1989 of the Medical Research Council (MRC)

Science Policy News

United Kingdom: The Corporate Strategy for 1989 of the Medical Research Council (MRC)     

Simultaneous prediction intervals for ARMA processes with stable innovations

We describe a method for calculating simultaneous prediction intervals for ARMA times series with heavy‐tailed stable innovations. The spectral measure of the vector of prediction errors is shown to be discrete. Direct computation of high‐dimensional stable probabilities is not feasible, but we show that Monte Carlo estimates of the interval width is practical. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Burnside’s engagement with the “modern theory of statistics”

The group theorist William Burnside devoted much of the last decade of his life to probability and statistics. The work led to contact with Ronald Fisher who was on his way to becoming the leading statistician of the age and with Karl Pearson, the man Fisher supplanted. Burnside corresponded with Fisher for nearly three years until their correspondence ended abruptly. This paper examines Burnside’s interactions with the statisticians and looks more generally at his work in probability and statistics. I am grateful to June Barrow-Green and Tony Mann for showing me important letters, to Susan Woodburn, Elise Bennetto and Jeniffer Beauchamps of the University of Adelaide for help with letters to Fisher and to Jonathan Harrison of St. John’s Cambridge for help with letters to Baker and White. Peter Neumann, the editor and a referee made helpful comments on an earlier draft.     

氧化钒簿膜电极在锂充电电池中的应用(英文)

鉴于氧化钒是应用于锂充电电池的最有希望的电极材料之一，采用等离子体增强化学气相沉积法（ＰＥＣＶＤ）和激光溅射沉积法（ＰＬＤ），制备了不同的氧化钒薄膜，并研究了它们的电化学性质。这些薄膜具备较高的充放电容量和优良的充放电稳定性。晶体和非晶体的Ｖ２Ｏ５薄膜都可以用ＰＬＤ方法在２００℃和不同的气氛下制备。这些薄膜的充电容量可达３８０ｍＡ·ｈ／ｇ。所制备的最稳定的薄膜是用ＰＥＣＶＤ方法得到的。这些薄膜的Ｏ／Ｖ比很接近Ｖ６Ｏ１３（厚度约为０．５ｕｍ）。它们的放电容量可达４０８ｍＡ．ｈ／ｇ或１２６５ｍＡｈ／ｃｍ３，其能量密度可达９６０．３Ｗ．ｈ／ｋｇ。即使经过４４００次的充放电后，这些薄膜的放电容量仍基本不变。因此，ＰＥＣＶＤ方法及其用它所制备的氧化钒薄膜将是锂充电电池工业很有希望的一种选择。     

Action Research: Its History and Relationship to Scientific Methodology

Scientific Methodology (SM) has long suited those who favour analytical and quantitative research in management. Thus the dilemma between the rigour and relevance of contemporary management research methods is fuelled by action researchers who keep wanting to contrast Action Research (AR) with SM. This paper presents a Western philosophical view on the development of belief systems and theory-based methods over time. It thus links the progressive and cumulative development of SM with the contemporary AR methodology. In doing this it presents a different point of view—that the traditions of SM and AR have much closer relationships than people often give them credit for.     

Book Reviews

Systemic Practice and Action Research -     

拯救动物刻不容缓

物种的衰降及灭绝一直是自然界生物进化的组成部分之一，它体现了优胜劣汰的物竞天择自然规律。但现今的物种灭绝除自然界生物进化因素以外，人类异常干扰因素更堪称是"杀手"、"'元凶"。通过检测海洋无脊椎动物化石样品表明，自然界的物种灭绝现象已持续发生演绎了数百万年之久，每年约有1－3种物种速灭绝厄运。但现今状况则令人颇为吃惊，据科学测算，现今自然界物种的灭绝率为1000种／年以上，占纯天然性物种灭绝率指数的1000倍，这还仅是一种保守估算所得值（按最低保守数估算所得值）。像距今6500万年以前的恐龙遭厄运那样，人类目前已…