加速寿命数据的贝叶斯建模与分析

在加速寿命试验的可靠性设计中, 随机化设计的限制以及删失数据不可避免地导致低分位数估计出现较大的偏差。针对上述的问题, 结合贝叶斯抽样技术以及非线性混合模型(nonlinear mixed model, NLMM)提出了一种可靠性改进的分析方法。首先, 需要检验所收集的数据是否服从威布尔分布以及验证形状参数是否是恒定常数。其次, 考虑随机效应对尺度参数和形状参数的影响, 运用NLMM构建了尺度参数和形状参数与试验因子之间的函数关系。然后, 利用贝叶斯方法估计低分位数的可靠性寿命。最后, 实际案例研究表明, 在考虑删失问题和未完全随机设计的影响时, 所提方法能够获得更为稳健和可靠的估计结果。     

基于模型的多目标优化问题方法研究

基于模型的多目标优化方法目的是创新一种通过黑箱评估的多目标函数优化算法,该算法从解空间上的混合分布中迭代生成候选解,并根据采样解的控制数来更新混合分布,求解过程的搜索偏向于Pareto最优解的集合。算法在解空间上寻找混合分布,使得混合分布的每个分量都是以帕累托最优解为中心的简并分布,并且每个预计的Pareto最优解都通过一个阈值距离均匀地分布在Pareto最优解集上,实验通过几个基准函数和方法证明了该算法的性能。     

基于Kriging模型的多点加点准则和并行代理优化算法

针对并行仿真环境下复杂工程系统的优化设计问题,提出一种基于Kriging模型、多目标策略和聚类方法的并行代理优化算法.该算法的多点加点准则,以同时优化期望改进准则和可行性概率准则为目标,首先生成兼具目标响应改进和可行域边界刻画功能的备选试验点集;再利用聚类方法从备选点集中选取多个有代表性的新试验点.通过两个数值算例和一个工程算例,将所提并行优化算法与已有算法做比较,结果表明所提算法具有更高的优化精度、效率和稳健性.     

对称降冰片二烯二羧酸二酯的高选择性单水解

半酯是有机合成中非常重要的中间体,大体积对称二酯的选择性单水解高产率制备半酯的研究具有重要意义.本研究采用THF、DMSO、CH3CN作为共溶剂,在0℃碱溶液中将对称结构的降冰片二烯衍生物进行选择性单水解反应,考察了三种共溶剂比例、不同碱及碱的用量对水解反应的影响.结果表明,当共溶剂与H2O体积比为1∶10的情况下,T...     

A genome-wide association study in Han Chinese identifies new susceptibility loci for ankylosing spondylitis

To identify susceptibility loci for ankylosing spondylitis, we performed a two-stage genome-wide association study in Han Chinese. In the discovery stage, we analyzed 1,356,350 autosomal SNPs in 1,837 individuals with ankylosing spondylitis and 4,231 controls; in the validation stage, we analyzed 30 suggestive SNPs in an additional 2,100 affected individuals and 3,496 controls. We identified two new susceptibility loci between EDIL3 and HAPLN1 at 5q14.3 (rs4552569; P = 8.77 × 10(-10)) and within ANO6 at 12q12 (rs17095830; P = 1.63 × 10(-8)). We also confirmed previously reported associations in Europeans within the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) region (top SNP, rs13202464; P < 5 × 10(-324)) and at 2p15 (rs10865331; P = 1.98 × 10(-8)). We show that rs13202464 within the MHC region mainly represents the risk effect of HLA-B*27 variants (including HLA-B*2704, HLA-B*2705 and HLA-B*2715) in Chinese. The two newly discovered loci implicate genes related to bone formation and cartilage development, suggesting their potential involvement in the etiology of ankylosing spondylitis.     

灰色关联度在甜高粱材料筛选中的应用

对甘肃省兰州市榆中县中试基地种植的11种甜高粱材料进行试验,以筛选出适合在兰州榆中地区种植的甜高粱材料。采用灰色关联度对材料的茎干鲜重、生物产量、茎杆平均含糖量进行分析,同时参考株高、穗长、穗颈长、物候期等指标,选定适合榆中地区不同用途的甜高粱材料。灰色关联度分析结果:茎秆鲜重、生物产量、茎秆平均含糖量三个指标中,茎秆平均含糖量灰色关联度最大,对结果影响最大;灰色综合评判排序显示08-2、2043、09-1、雅津43号分别排列前4位。08-2、2043、09-1、雅津43号综合表现最好,适合兰州榆中地区种植,可用于饲料生产和生物质能源储备种植。     

The multifaceted role of periostin in tumorigenesis

Periostin, also called osteoblast-specific factor 2 (OSF-2), is a member of the fasciclin family and a disulfide-linked cell adhesion protein that has been shown to be expressed preferentially in the periosteum and periodontal ligaments, where it acts as a critical regulator of bone and tooth formation and maintenance. Furthermore, periostin plays an important role in cardiac development. Recent clinical evidence has also revealed that periostin is involved in the development of various tumors, such as breast, lung, colon, pancreatic, and ovarian cancers. Periostin interacts with multiple cell-surface receptors, most notably integrins, and signals mainly via the PI3-K/Akt and other pathways to promote cancer cell survival, epithelial–mesenchymal transition (EMT), invasion, and metastasis. In this review, aspects related to the function of periostin in tumorigenesis are summarized.     

基于Kriging模型与重要性抽样的可靠性灵敏度分析

针对因无法获得功能函数的梯度信息而不能使用解析方法的情形,提出了进行可靠性灵敏度分析的高效的仿真方法,首先基于Kriging模型和重要性抽样去计算失效概率,然后通过记分函数(score function)方法求出失效概率对各个参数的偏导数。在计算失效概率时采用反问题(inversion problems)中的不确定性逐步减少(stepwise uncertainty reduction)准则来更新功能函数的Kriging模型,继而在重要性抽样的框架下将失效概率表示成一个"增大"的失效概率与修正项的乘积;而记分函数方法只是对前面抽样方法的一个简单后处理,不需要计算额外的功能函数值.对所提方法使用算例验证表明:当功能函数为昂贵的计算模型或对系统(非单个构件)进行灵敏度分析时,该方法具有较高的计算效率和精度。     

Research on consistency measurement and weight estimation approach of hybrid uncertain comparison matrix

The consistency measurement and weight estimation approach of the hybrid uncertain comparison matrix in the analytic hierarchy process （AHP） are studied. First, the decision-making satisfaction membership function is defined based on the decision making＇s allowable error. Then, the weight model based on the maximal satisfactory consistency idea is suggested, and the consistency index is put forward. Moreover, the weight distributing value model is developed to solve the decision making misleading problem since the multioptimization solutions in the former model. Finally, the weights are ranked based on the possibility degree approach to obtain the ultimate order.     

稳健二进前向网络的遗传训练方法

稳健二进前向网络是对逻辑知识的隐式表示和显式表示的有机统一,是性能优良的逻辑知识库、推理机和解释器,但目前还没有一种网络训练算法能够训练出稳健二进前向网络,针对这种情况,本文首先对稳健二进前向网络的神经元辅阈值范围进行了改进和有效描述,并在此基础上提出了一种对稳健二进前向网络进行有效训练的遗传训练方法。在这种训练方法中,网络参数采用三值编码方案,并运用相应的变异机制和有效的适应度函数,经这种方法训练出的网络具有结构最优、稳健性能最强和最易实现的特点。文章最后给出了实验的结果。