An examination of factors contributing to delphi accuracy

Three experiments examined the accuracy in the Delphi method. The first experiment assessed the accuracy of group predictions over 1-, 2- and 3- month time spans. Results indicated that predictions derived from the group were more accurate than those of 95 per cent of the individual panelists, but did not exceed in accuracy the best panelists. Experiment 2 evaluated the gross contributions of polling and feedback to Delphi accuracy. The manipulations did not improve the group's ability to forecast the probabilities of the occurrence of events, but did decrease the error in predicting when the events would occur. Experiment 3 separated the effects of polling and feedback as determinants of accuracy. Neither manipulation improved the accuracy of the group's predictions of whether an event would occur. The effect of iterated polling was to reduce the group's error in predicting the time course for those scenarios that did occur.     

Essential arginine residues occur in or near the catalytic site of L-amino acid oxidase

Summary Butanedione in borate buffer irreversibly inactivates L-amino acid oxidase. L-Phenylalanine and L-methionine, which are good substrates for the enzyme, protect against inactivation but glycine, which is a very poor substrate, and D-phenylalanine, which is neither substrate nor inhibitor, do not provide significant protection. These results are consistent with the modification by butanedione of one or more arginine residues located in or near the catalytic site of L-amino acid oxidase. Acknowledgments. We thank Drs D. Porter and S. Johnson for advice and assistance; Ms D. Hurt for electrophoretic analyses of protein samples; NIH for grant No. AM-25247, and NSF for grant No. SP176-83182.     

Human subtelomeres are hot spots of interchromosomal recombination and segmental duplication

Human subtelomeres are polymorphic patchworks of interchromosomal segmental duplications at the ends of chromosomes. Here we provide evidence that these patchworks arose recently through repeated translocations between chromosome ends. We assess the relative contribution of the principal mechanisms of ectopic DNA repair to the formation of subtelomeric duplications and find that non-homologous end-joining predominates. Once subtelomeric duplications arise, they are prone to homology-based sequence transfers as shown by the incongruent phylogenetic relationships of neighbouring sections. Interchromosomal recombination of subtelomeres is a potent force for recent change. Cytogenetic and sequence analyses reveal that pieces of the subtelomeric patchwork have changed location and copy number with unprecedented frequency during primate evolution. Half of the known subtelomeric sequence has formed recently, through human-specific sequence transfers and duplications. Subtelomeric dynamics result in a gene duplication rate significantly higher than the genome average and could have both advantageous and pathological consequences in human biology. More generally, our analyses suggest an evolutionary cycle between segmental polymorphisms and genome rearrangements.     

Conclusion: New Directions Through Extending Deliberative Democracy to Enhance Representation and Accountability

Two way, systemic dialogue enables new ideas to emerge. Rorty (1989) in ‘Contingency, irony and solidarity’ argues that we need to ask questions that acknowledge solidarity with other human beings who suffer. He asks us to consider the consequences for humanity by widening our sense of solidarity or links with others. Considering their pain should be our starting point for drawing ever widening circles of solidarity. The issue is not idealism versus pragmatism as Rorty argues; it is about widening our understanding of the consequences of our thinking and our practice. We need to understand that the environment of which we are part has been shaped by our social, cultural, political and economic decisions and that it will in turn shape our thinking and practice. This is the principle of co-determination that has been developed by systems thinkers such as Maturana and Varela and understood by recent thinkers such as Tim Flannery (2007) and Ulrich Beck (1992, 1997).