Forecast accuracy after pretesting with an application to the stock market

In econometrics, as a rule, the same data set is used to select the model and, conditional on the selected model, to forecast. However, one typically reports the properties of the (conditional) forecast, ignoring the fact that its properties are affected by the model selection (pretesting). This is wrong, and in this paper we show that the error can be substantial. We obtain explicit expressions for this error. To illustrate the theory we consider a regression approach to stock market forecasting, and show that the standard predictions ignoring pretesting are much less robust than naive econometrics might suggest. We also propose a forecast procedure based on the ‘neutral Laplace estimator’, which leads to an improvement over standard model selection procedures. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Crystal structure of the β2 adrenergic receptor-Gs protein complex

G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) are responsible for the majority of cellular responses to hormones and neurotransmitters as well as the senses of sight, olfaction and taste. The paradigm of GPCR signalling is the activation of a heterotrimeric GTP binding protein (G protein) by an agonist-occupied receptor. The β(2) adrenergic receptor (β(2)AR) activation of Gs, the stimulatory G protein for adenylyl cyclase, has long been a model system for GPCR signalling. Here we present the crystal structure of the active state ternary complex composed of agonist-occupied monomeric β(2)AR and nucleotide-free Gs heterotrimer. The principal interactions between the β(2)AR and Gs involve the amino- and carboxy-terminal α-helices of Gs, with conformational changes propagating to the nucleotide-binding pocket. The largest conformational changes in the β(2)AR include a 14 ? outward movement at the cytoplasmic end of transmembrane segment 6 (TM6) and an α-helical extension of the cytoplasmic end of TM5. The most surprising observation is a major displacement of the α-helical domain of Gαs relative to the Ras-like GTPase domain. This crystal structure represents the first high-resolution view of transmembrane signalling by a GPCR.     

Genetic variation in DPP6 is associated with susceptibility to amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

We identified a SNP in the DPP6 gene that is consistently strongly associated with susceptibility to amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) in different populations of European ancestry, with an overall P value of 5.04 x 10(-8) in 1,767 cases and 1,916 healthy controls and with an odds ratio of 1.30 (95% confidence interval (CI) of 1.18-1.43). Our finding is the first report of a genome-wide significant association with sporadic ALS and may be a target for future functional studies.     

Regulation of antibody effector functions through IgG Fc N-glycosylation

Immunoglobulin gamma (IgG) antibodies are key effector proteins of the immune system. They recognize antigens with high specificity and are indispensable for immunological memory following pathogen exposure or vaccination. The constant, crystallizable fragment (Fc) of IgG molecules mediates antibody effector functions such as complement-dependent cytotoxicity, antibody-mediated cellular cytotoxicity, and antibody-dependent cell-mediated phagocytosis. These functions are regulated by a single N-linked, biantennary glycan of the heavy chain, which resides just below the hinge region, and the presence of specific sugar moieties on the glycan has profound implications on IgG effector functions. Emerging knowledge of how Fc glycans contribute to IgG structure and functions has opened new avenues for the therapeutic exploitation of defined antibody glycoforms in the treatment of cancer and autoimmune diseases. Here, we review recent advances in understanding proinflammatory IgG effector functions and their regulation by Fc glycans.     

A new parasitoid (Hymenoptera: Braconidae: Aphidiinae) of the invasive bamboo aphids Takecallis spp. (Hemiptera: Aphididae) from Western Europe

A long-term survey of tritrophic (plant–aphid–parasitoid) associations in the urban ecosystems of Lleida (Catalonia) and Paris (France) resulted in the detection of associations of two bamboo aphids, Takecallis arundinariae (Essig) and Takecallis taiwanus (Takahashi), respectively, with a new aphid parasitoid species. Trioxys remaudierei Starý & Rakhshani sp. nov. is described and illustrated as a unique parasitoid of Takecallis aphids outside the area of their origin. The new species is easily distinguishable from its congeners in having the ventral prongs of the abdomen fused over two-thirds of their length, then bifurcated towards the tip. The only morphologically similar species is Trioxys betulae (Marshall), which exhibits a clearly different prong shape (and has a different host range, Symydobius Mordvilko and Clethrobius Mordvilko). The new species is compared with allied taxa associated with bamboo aphids. The occurrence of Takecallis taiwanus on bamboo is recorded in France for the first time.

www.zoobank.org/urn:lsid:zoobank.org:pub:ED15BA16-E8A9-4CEA-BDA7-FBAB02FEB091     

Mutations in the RNA exosome component gene EXOSC3 cause pontocerebellar hypoplasia and spinal motor neuron degeneration

RNA exosomes are multi-subunit complexes conserved throughout evolution and are emerging as the major cellular machinery for processing, surveillance and turnover of a diverse spectrum of coding and noncoding RNA substrates essential for viability. By exome sequencing, we discovered recessive mutations in EXOSC3 (encoding exosome component 3) in four siblings with infantile spinal motor neuron disease, cerebellar atrophy, progressive microcephaly and profound global developmental delay, consistent with pontocerebellar hypoplasia type 1 (PCH1; MIM 607596). We identified mutations in EXOSC3 in an additional 8 of 12 families with PCH1. Morpholino knockdown of exosc3 in zebrafish embryos caused embryonic maldevelopment, resulting in small brain size and poor motility, reminiscent of human clinical features, and these defects were largely rescued by co-injection with wild-type but not mutant exosc3 mRNA. These findings represent the first example of an RNA exosome core component gene that is responsible for a human disease and further implicate dysregulation of RNA processing in cerebellar and spinal motor neuron maldevelopment and degeneration.     

Genome stability, progressive kidney failure and aging

Two new studies report mutations in FAN1 and three other genome-stability genes that tie the DNA damage response to progressive kidney failure and the dysfunction of several other organs. These findings provide clues to the underlying causes of tissue decline and may add a series of genes to the growing list of genome maintenance factors that protect against premature aging.