Forecasting volatility by means of threshold models

The aim of this paper is to compare the forecasting performance of competing threshold models, in order to capture the asymmetric effect in the volatility. We focus on examining the relative out‐of‐sample forecasting ability of the SETAR‐Threshold GARCH (SETAR‐TGARCH) and the SETAR‐Threshold Stochastic Volatility (SETAR‐THSV) models compared to the GARCH model and Stochastic Volatility (SV) model. However, the main problem in evaluating the predictive ability of volatility models is that the ‘true’ underlying volatility process is not observable and thus a proxy must be defined for the unobservable volatility. For the class of nonlinear state space models (SETAR‐THSV and SV), a modified version of the SIR algorithm has been used to estimate the unknown parameters. The forecasting performance of competing models has been compared for two return time series: IBEX 35 and S&P 500. We explore whether the increase in the complexity of the model implies that its forecasting ability improves. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Weight measurement using image-based pose analysis

Image-based gait analysis as a means of biometric identification has attracted much research attention. Most of the existing methods focus on human identification, posture analysis and movement tracking. There have been few investigations on measuring the carried load based on the carrier＇s gait characteristics by automatic image processing. Nevertheless, this measurement is very useful in a number of applications, such as the study of the carried load on the postural development of children and adolescence. In this paper, we investigate how to automatically estimate the carried weight from a sequence of images. We present a method to extract human gait silhouette based on an observation that humans tend to minimize the energy during motion. We compute several angles of body leaning and determine the relationship of the carried weight, the leaning angles and the centroid location according to a human kinetic study. Our weight determination method has been verified successfully by experiments.     

A New Discipline of Science-The Study of Open Complex Giant System and Its Methodology

This paper introduces the conception of open complex giant system and the methodology for dealing with the system, with stress on its profound significance in development of science and technology. The authors conclude that the reductionism underlying the exact science is not suitable to open complex giant system, and the only feasible alternative is the meta-synthetic engineering from the qualitative to the quantitative.     

Sister chromatid exchanges in lymphocytes of normal and alcoholic subjects.

The effects of alcohol consumption, cigarette smoking and age on sister chromatid exchange (SCE) frequency in human lymphocytes were assessed by means of multiple linear regression. An increase in SCE rates was associated with alcohol consumption (p = 0.0001), smoking (p = 0.0231), and, to a small extent (p = 0.057), age. These three confounding factors explain 48% of the inter-personal variation in SCE rates among subjects studied.     

Channel Mismatching in Sidelobe Canceler: Limitations and Remedies

After a brief recall of the Sidelobe Canceler (SLC) working principle, including the derivation of a general formula for the Cancellation Ratio (CR), the effects of channel mismatching are investigated. In particular, curves providing CRvalues as a function of amplitude and phase channel mismatching, radar bandwidth, and jammer direction of arrival (JDOA) are provided for the cases of one and two auxiliary antennas. Subsequently, a time -space processor for performance restoration is analyzed in detail. In addition to the above mentioned quantities, the attainable CR value is expressed as a function of the space-time processor parameters. The contribution of the paper is related to the derivation of a number of mathematical equations of CR for several cases of practical interest for the radar engineer. In addition, several curves are presented to assist design of SLC systems.