The humoral immune response to heat shock proteins.

Humoral immune reactions to heat shock proteins (hsp) from microorganisms are one aspect of microbial infections in humans. The production of antibodies which are specific to epitopes present on procaryotic hsp leads also to the appearance of cross-reactive serum antibodies in the host organism that react with human hsp. This article discusses the consequences of such autoreactive antibodies for the host in context with the development of immune tolerance and autoimmune diseases, especially rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and in experimental animal models for arthritis such as adjuvant arthritis in rats. On the basis of epitope cross-reactivity between hsp and other host proteins, a hypothesis is presented for the development of autoimmune disease following the production of hsp-specific antibodies.     

Which survey indicators are useful for monitoring consumption? Evidence from European countries

This paper assesses the information content of two survey indicators for consumption developments in the near future for eight European countries in the period 1985–1998. Empirical work on this topic typically focuses on consumer confidence, the perceptions of buyers of consumption goods. This paper examines whether perceptions of sellers of consumption goods, measured by retail trade surveys, may also improve short‐term monitoring of consumption. We find that both consumer confidence and retailer confidence embody valuable information, when analysed in isolation. For France, Italy and Spain we conclude that adding retail confidence does not improve the indicator model once consumer confidence has been included. For the UK the reverse case is obtained. For the remaining four countries we show that combining consumer sentiment and retail trade confidence into a composite indicator leads to optimal results. Our results suggest that incorporating information from retail trade surveys may offer significant benefits for the analysis of short‐term prospects of consumption. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Timed bromocriptine administration reduces body fat stores in obese subjects and hyperglycemia in type II diabetics.

Obese postmenopausal female volunteers were given timed daily oral dosages of bromocriptine, and tested for reduction of body fat stores. This dopamine agonist has been shown to reset circadian rhythms that are altered in obese animals and to reduce body fat levels in several animal models. The participants were instructed not to alter their existing exercise and eating behavior during treatment. Skinfold measurements were taken on 33 subjects as indices of body fat. The measurements (e.g., suprailiac) were reduced after six weeks by about 25%, which represents a reduction of 11.7% of the total body fat. These dramatic decreases in body fat, which are equivalent to that produced by severe caloric restriction, were accompanied by more modest reductions of body weight (2.5%), indicating a possible conservation of protein that is usually lost as a consequence of such caloric restriction. The effects of bromocriptine treatment on body fat and hyperglycemia were also examined in non-insulin dependent diabetics being treated with oral hypoglycemics (7 subjects) or insulin (7 subjects). Total body fat was reduced by 10.7% and 5.1% in diabetics on oral hypoglycemics and insulin, respectively, without any significant reductions in body weight. Hyperglycemia was reduced in most of the 15 diabetic subjects treated leading to euglycemia and even cessation of hypoglycemic drugs in 3 of the 7 subjects during 4-8 weeks of bromocriptine treatment. These findings support the hypothesis that obesity and type II diabetes may be treated effectively with bromocriptine when administered at the proper times and dosages.     

Estimation and testing of time-varying coefficient regression models in the presence of linear restrictions

A linear regression model with random walk coefficients is extended to allow for linear restrictions between the coefficients to be satisfied at each point in time. Estimation in this model is shown to be no more involved than estimation in the standard model. It is also demonstrated how, after a slight modification to the testing problem, classical test procedures may be applied to the problem of testing for such restrictions. The performance of the Lagrange Multiplier test for a variety of different restrictions is then investigated via simulation. An empirical application involving testing for homogeneity in a random walk coefficient version of the AIDS model is given.     

Periodic paralysis in quarter horses: a sodium channel mutation disseminated by selective breeding.

We recently reported on a linkage study within a Quarter Horse lineage segregating hyperkalaemic periodic paralysis (HYPP), an autosomal dominant condition showing potassium-induced attacks of skeletal muscle paralysis. HYPP co-segregated with the equine adult skeletal muscle sodium channel alpha subunit gene, the same gene that causes human HYPP. We now describe the Phe to Leu mutation in transmembrane domain IVS3 which courses the horse disease. This represents the first application of molecular genetics to an important horse disease, and the data will provide an opportunity for control or eradication of this condition.     

Lactate dehydrogenase specificity and subunit assembly in neural tissues of the teleostPhallichthys amates

Summary The tissue specificity of lactate dehydrogenase (EC 1.1.1.27) in brain and eye of the teleostPhallichthys amates was examined by acrylamide gel electrophoresis. It is suggested that subunit association is a function of gene product accessibility superimposed upon genetic restriction of assembly.     

Decision trees for forecasting

Recent years have seen an increasing cross-fertilization between the fields of decision analysis and forecasting. Decision-analytic models often require forecasts as inputs, and aspects of the Bayesian decision-theoretic framework underlying decision analysis have proved useful to forecasting, particularly in contexts where subjective judgemental inputs are required. This paper describes the use of decision tree analysis for forecasting and illustrates its use for corporate divisional forecasting and planning. A specialized decision-analytic technique, acts as events, is also described and illustrated to forecast a new product's earnings. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of decision analysis for forecasting.