Henderson‐Trending of Macroeconomic Variables and Forecasting Accuracy

Using a structural time‐series model, the forecasting accuracy of a wide range of macroeconomic variables is investigated. Specifically of importance is whether the Henderson moving‐average procedure distorts the underlying time‐series properties of the data for forecasting purposes. Given the weight of attention in the literature to the seasonal adjustment process used by various statistical agencies, this study hopes to address the dearth of literature on ‘trending’ procedures. Forecasts using both the trended and untrended series are generated. The forecasts are then made comparable by ‘detrending’ the trended forecasts, and comparing both series to the realised values. Forecasting accuracy is measured by a suite of common methods, and a test of significance of difference is applied to the respective root mean square errors. It is found that the Henderson procedure does not lead to deterioration in forecasting accuracy in Australian macroeconomic variables on most occasions, though the conclusions are very different between the one‐step‐ahead and multi‐step‐ahead forecasts. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Characteristics of natal and non-natal kit fox dens in the northern Chihuahuan Desert

We studied kit fox den characteristics of the northern McGregor Range of Fort Bliss Military Reservation, New Mexico, during 1994 to 1995. Twenty radio-collared kit foxes used 132 different dens, including 16 natal dens. Kit fox dens were located primarily in creosote-dominated habitat found in relatively flat, well-drained terrain. Natal dens were virtually indistinguishable from non-natal dens; however, natal den entrances were taller than non-natal den entrances. Entrances found at all dens were oriented more frequently toward the northwest and southwest. Kit foxes used more dens during the breeding (January-February) and pup-rearing season (May-July) than during gestation.     

Pilfering of stored seeds and the relative costs of scatter-hoarding versus larder-hoarding in yellow pine chipmunks

Yellow pine chipmunks ( Tamias amoenus ) scatter-hoard food during summer and autumn but must form a larder as a winter food source before winter begins. Yellow pine chipmunks do not larder-hoard large quantities of food during the summer, apparently because a summer larder could not be defended from pilferers. We tested the assumption that the rate of pilferage from an unguarded larder would be significantly greater than the rate of pilferage from surface caches (which are also unguarded by yellow pine chipmunks) during the summer and autumn. Buried plastic buckets were used as artificial nests containing larders of 1000 sunflower seeds or 200 Jeffrey pine ( Pinus jeffreyi ) seeds. The pilferage of larder contents was monitored daily and compared to pilferage of surface caches. Animals (yellow pine chipmunks and deer mice, Peromyscus maniculatus ) removed sunflower seeds from caches much faster than from larders, but caches of Jeffrey pine seeds disappeared much more slowly than pine seeds in larders. Further, animals removed pine seeds from larders more quickly than they did sunflower seeds from larders. The difference between seed species was probably because sunflower seeds have much stronger odors, which rodents readily detect, and because chipmunks prefer pine seeds over sunflower seeds. Yellow pine chipmunks must spend a considerable portion of their time foraging for seeds and may not be able to defend a large larder during summer.     

Atomic structure holography using thermal neutrons.

The idea of atomic-resolution holography has its roots in the X-ray work of Bragg and in Gabor's electron interference microscope. Gabor's lensless microscope was not realized in his time, but over the past twelve years there has been a steady increase in the number of reports on atomic-resolution holography. All of this work involves the use of electrons or hard X-rays to produce the hologram. Neutrons are often unique among scattering probes in their interaction with materials: for example, the relative visibility of hydrogen and its isotopes is a great advantage in the study of polymers and biologically relevant materials. Recent work proposed that atomic-resolution holography could be achieved with thermal neutrons. Here we use monochromatic thermal neutrons, adopting the inside-source concept of Sz?ke, to image planes of oxygen atoms located above and below a single hydrogen atom in the oxide mineral simpsonite.     

Reproductive pair correlations and the clustering of organisms.

Clustering of organisms can be a consequence of social behaviour, or of the response of individuals to chemical and physical cues. Environmental variability can also cause clustering: for example, marine turbulence transports plankton and produces chlorophyll concentration patterns in the upper ocean. Even in a homogeneous environment, nonlinear interactions between species can result in spontaneous pattern formation. Here we show that a population of independent, random-walking organisms ('brownian bugs'), reproducing by binary division and dying at constant rates, spontaneously aggregates. Using an individual-based model, we show that clusters form out of spatially homogeneous initial conditions without environmental variability, predator-prey interactions, kinesis or taxis. The clustering mechanism is reproductively driven-birth must always be adjacent to a living organism. This clustering can overwhelm diffusion and create non-poissonian correlations between pairs (parent and offspring) or organisms, leading to the emergence of patterns.     

A new monotypic genus of chiggers and four new species of Quadraseta from Venezuela (Acari: Trombiculidae)

Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} Carebareia, n. gen., and its type - species, C. johnstoni, n. sp., are described. The genus Quadraseta Brennan, 1970, is redefined and a key to the 11 included species given. Four new species, Quadraseta tachirensis, holotype ex Akodon sp., Q. rotstieri, ex Proechimys guyannensis, Q. mirandae, holotype ex Oryzomys albigularis, and Q. falconensis, ex Sylvilagus floridanus, are described.     

Effects of habitat fragmentation and differing mobility on the population structures of a Great Basin dragonfly ( Sympetrum corruptum ) and damselfly ( Enallagma carunculatum )

The population structure of 2 Great Basin odonate species was assessed using protein electrophoresis. Analyses included 7 populations of Sympetrum corruptum (suborder Anisoptera), a migratory and highly mobile dragonfly, and 8 populations of Enallagma carunculatum (suborder Zygoptera), a weak flier that is not known to migrate far from natal water sources. Though we expected the damselfly ( E. carunculatum ) to show greater genetic isolation than the dragonfly ( S. corruptum ), both species apparently had high levels of gene flow (theta = 0.0604 for S. corruptum , theta = 0.0485 for E. carunculatum ) and showed no evidence for isolation by distance. These results suggest that both species are highly vagile and that the most important factors affecting population structure of these odonates may be ecological conditions such as habitat patchiness and the ephemerality of water sources.