Numerical Simulation of the COVID-19 Herd Immunity Based on Complex Network Modeling北大核心CSCD

鉴于构建流行病动力学模型、探索流行病传播规律对疫情防控具有十分重要的理论意义和实际应用价值,在已有的均匀混合模型基础上,针对个体接触关系异质化越发明显,且每个个体都处在不同的接触关系中,建立了兼顾个体状态与接触追踪的动态小世界网络模型。模拟了新冠病毒在社会中的传播过程。通过对比仿真结果,说明了所建模型的合理性。在此基础上,仿真计算了网络拓扑结构与接种免疫人数占比共同作用下对新冠病毒传播的影响,分析得到群体免疫临界值。说明所建传播模型合理,接种疫苗实现群体免疫可行。     

Collaborative Project Management: A Systemic Approach to Heavy Equipment Manufacturing Project Management

Quite often over the last decade, heavy equipment manufacturers are trying to improve their project management performance with the use of effective project management methods. However, the challenges encountered aren’t isolated problems and a systemic approach is required. This paper exemplifies how a systemic approach can be applied to heavy equipment manufacturing project (HEMP) management, through of a multifaceted vision. The findings present in the paper are based on a two-year case study in a metallurgic equipment manufacturing enterprise in China. Based on the analysis of HEMP management problems and the contributions on systemic approach application in project management, the paper enriches existing theory by: (1) interpreting the HEMP management system with the top-down disassembly method; (2) developing the collaborative project management approach with a systems view highlighting the project characteristics management and inter-departmental collaboration; (3) making suggestions for systemic approach application in project management. For practitioners and researchers, the findings are particularly meaningful for manufacturing project management and systemic approach application.     

基于显式动力学的发动机转子中介轴承的仿真分析

为研究复杂工况下中介轴承的动力学特性，针对外圈支承于低压转子轴颈，内圈支承于高压转子轴颈支承形式的中介轴承的工作特点，应用LS-DYNA建立了中介圆柱滚子轴承动力学模型，开展动力学仿真。该模型以显式算法为基础，在充分考虑中介轴承转速、旋转方向、负载、接触及摩擦的条件下，基于动力学仿真模型，分析了中介轴承应力水平随内外圈旋转方向、内外圈转速及径向外载荷变化的规律。分析结果表明：在内外圈反向旋转以及外圈转速增加的情况下中介轴承的振动更为平稳，而在径向外载荷增大的情况下，中介轴承的振动更加剧烈。仿真结果验证了模型的正确性，为中介轴承故障诊断提供了有益参考。     

Dealing with Distances and Transformations for Fuzzy C-Means Clustering of Compositional Data

Clustering techniques are based upon a dissimilarity or distance measure between objects and clusters. This paper focuses on the simplex space, whose elements??compositions??are subject to non-negativity and constant-sum constraints. Any data analysis involving compositions should fulfill two main principles: scale invariance and subcompositional coherence. Among fuzzy clustering methods, the FCM algorithm is broadly applied in a variety of fields, but it is not well-behaved when dealing with compositions. Here, the adequacy of different dissimilarities in the simplex, together with the behavior of the common log-ratio transformations, is discussed in the basis of compositional principles. As a result, a well-founded strategy for FCM clustering of compositions is suggested. Theoretical findings are accompanied by numerical evidence, and a detailed account of our proposal is provided. Finally, a case study is illustrated using a nutritional data set known in the clustering literature.     

伊朗西北部Arasbaran生物圈保护区及邻近地区的天牛种类(鞘翅目:天牛科)

天牛(鞘翅目Coleoptera:天牛科Cerambycidae)为树木重要的钻蛀性害虫.本文研究了伊朗西北部Arasbaran生物圈保护区及邻近地区的天牛种类,采集鉴定了5个亚科26属33种,提供了一些种类的植物寄主.     

Fabrication of an r-Al2Ti intermetallic matrix composite reinforced with α-Al2O3 ceramic by discontinuous mechanical milling for thermite reaction

In this study, a powder mixture with an Al/TiO2 molar ratio of 10/3 was used to form an r-Al2Ti intermetallic matrix composite (IMC) reinforced withα-Al2O3 ceramic by a novel milling technique, called ...     

New cooperative frequency domain differential modulation and demodulation

An innovative method of cooperative frequency domain differential modulation and demodulation is presented.This method applies the prior knowledge of channel propagation to selecting the variable differential length and carrying out frequency domain modulation.This strategy optimizes the design of system parameters to effectively improve the anti-interference ability of the differential system in time-varied multipath channel circumstance without making the execution more complicating.The simulations and comparisons demonstrate the proposed method is effective,and the results show that it is especially suitable for the fading channel with strong propagation and fast time-variation.     

Uncertainty in crossing time of 2 °C warming threshold over China

The 2 °C warming target has been used widely in global and regional climate change research. Previous studies have shown large uncertainties in the time when surface air temperature (SAT) change over China will reach 2 °C relative to the pre-industrial era. To understand the uncertainties, we analyzed the projected SAT in the twenty-first century using 40 state-of-the-art climate models under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The 2 °C threshold-crossing time (TCT) of SAT averaged across China was around 2033 and 2029 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Considering a ±1σ range of intermodel SAT change, the upper and lower bounds of the 2 °C TCT could differ by about 25 years or even more. Uncertainty in the projected SAT and the warming rate around the TCT are the two main factors responsible for the TCT uncertainty. The former is determined by the climate sensitivity represented by the global mean surface temperature response. About 45 % of the intermodel variance of the projected 2 °C TCT for averaged SAT over China can be explained by climate sensitivity across the models, which is contributed mainly by central and southern China. In a climate more sensitive to CO₂ forcing, stronger greenhouse effect, less stratus cloud over the East Asian monsoon region, and less snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau result in increased downward longwave radiation, increased shortwave radiation, and decreased shortwave radiation reflected by the surface, respectively, all of which may advance the TCT.