Predictive accuracy of population viability analysis in conservation biology

Population viability analysis (PVA) is widely applied in conservation biology to predict extinction risks for threatened species and to compare alternative options for their management. It can also be used as a basis for listing species as endangered under World Conservation Union criteria. However, there is considerable scepticism regarding the predictive accuracy of PVA, mainly because of a lack of validation in real systems. Here we conducted a retrospective test of PVA based on 21 long-term ecological studies--the first comprehensive and replicated evaluation of the predictive powers of PVA. Parameters were estimated from the first half of each data set and the second half was used to evaluate the performance of the model. Contrary to recent criticisms, we found that PVA predictions were surprisingly accurate. The risk of population decline closely matched observed outcomes, there was no significant bias, and population size projections did not differ significantly from reality. Furthermore, the predictions of the five PVA software packages were highly concordant. We conclude that PVA is a valid and sufficiently accurate tool for categorizing and managing endangered species.     

Killer cell immunoglobulin-like receptor 3DL1-mediated recognition of human leukocyte antigen B

Members of the killer cell immunoglobulin-like receptor (KIR) family, a large group of polymorphic receptors expressed on natural killer (NK) cells, recognize particular peptide-laden human leukocyte antigen (pHLA) class I molecules and have a pivotal role in innate immune responses. Allelic variation and extensive polymorphism within the three-domain KIR family (KIR3D, domains D0-D1-D2) affects pHLA binding specificity and is linked to the control of viral replication and the treatment outcome of certain haematological malignancies. Here we describe the structure of a human KIR3DL1 receptor bound to HLA-B*5701 complexed with a self-peptide. KIR3DL1 clamped around the carboxy-terminal end of the HLA-B*5701 antigen-binding cleft, resulting in two discontinuous footprints on the pHLA. First, the D0 domain, a distinguishing feature of the KIR3D family, extended towards β2-microglobulin and abutted a region of the HLA molecule with limited polymorphism, thereby acting as an 'innate HLA sensor' domain. Second, whereas the D2-HLA-B*5701 interface exhibited a high degree of complementarity, the D1-pHLA-B*5701 contacts were suboptimal and accommodated a degree of sequence variation both within the peptide and the polymorphic region of the HLA molecule. Although the two-domain KIR (KIR2D) and KIR3DL1 docked similarly onto HLA-C and HLA-B respectively, the corresponding D1-mediated interactions differed markedly, thereby providing insight into the specificity of KIR3DL1 for discrete HLA-A and HLA-B allotypes. Collectively, in association with extensive mutagenesis studies at the KIR3DL1-pHLA-B*5701 interface, we provide a framework for understanding the intricate interplay between peptide variability, KIR3D and HLA polymorphism in determining the specificity requirements of this essential innate interaction that is conserved across primate species.     

Ecology: human role in Russian wild fires

Anomalies in temperature and precipitation in northern Russia over the past few years have been viewed as manifestations of anthropogenic climate change, prompting suggestions that this may also account for exceptional forest fires in the region. Here we examine the number of forest-fire events across the boreal Russian Federation for the period 2002 to 2005 in 'intact' forests, where human influence is limited, and in 'non-intact' forests, which have been shaped by human activity. Our results show that there were more fires in years during which the weather was anomalous, but that more than 87% of fires in boreal Russia were started by people.