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If interest centres on forecasting a temporally aggregated multiple time series and the generation process of the disaggregate series is a known vector ARMA (autoregressive moving average) process then forecasting the disaggregate series and temporally aggregating the forecasts is at least as efficient, under a mean squared error measure, as forecasting the aggregated series directly. Necessary and sufficient conditions for equality of the two forecasts are given. In practice the data generation process is usually unknown and has to be determined from the available data. Using asymptotic theory it is shown that also in this case aggregated forecasts from the disaggregate process will usually be superior to forecasts obtained from the aggregated process.  相似文献   
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Lateralization of brain functions, once believed to be a human characteristic, has now been found to be widespread among vertebrates. In birds, asymmetries of visual functions are well studied, with each hemisphere being specialized for different tasks. Here we report lateralized functions of the birds' visual system associated with magnetoperception, resulting in an extreme asymmetry of sensing the direction of the magnetic field. We found that captive migrants tested in cages with the magnetic field as the only available orientation cue were well oriented in their appropriate migratory direction when using their right eye only, but failed to show a significant directional preference when using their left eye. This implies that magnetoreception for compass orientation, assumed to take place in the eyes alongside the visual processes, is strongly lateralized, with a marked dominance of the right eye/left brain hemisphere.  相似文献   
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This paper argues that essential features of Feyerabend's philosophy, namely his radicalization of critical rationalism and his turn to relativism, could be understood better in the light of his engagement with early Greek thought. In contrast to his earlier, Popperian views he came to see the Homeric worldview as a genuine alternative, which was not falsified by the Presocratics. Unlike socio–psychological and externalist accounts my reading of his published and unpublished material suggests that his alternative reconstruction of the ancient beginnings of the Western scientific tradition motivate and justify his moderate Protagorean relativism.  相似文献   
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Neuronal exocytosis is catalysed by the SNAP receptor protein syntaxin-1A, which is clustered in the plasma membrane at sites where synaptic vesicles undergo exocytosis. However, how syntaxin-1A is sequestered is unknown. Here we show that syntaxin clustering is mediated by electrostatic interactions with the strongly anionic lipid phosphatidylinositol-4,5-bisphosphate (PIP2). Using super-resolution stimulated-emission depletion microscopy on the plasma membranes of PC12 cells, we found that PIP2 is the dominant inner-leaflet lipid in microdomains about 73 nanometres in size. This high accumulation of PIP2 was required for syntaxin-1A sequestering, as destruction of PIP2 by the phosphatase synaptojanin-1 reduced syntaxin-1A clustering. Furthermore, co-reconstitution of PIP2 and the carboxy-terminal part of syntaxin-1A in artificial giant unilamellar vesicles resulted in segregation of PIP2 and syntaxin-1A into distinct domains even when cholesterol was absent. Our results demonstrate that electrostatic protein-lipid interactions can result in the formation of microdomains independently of cholesterol or lipid phases.  相似文献   
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Wakefulness and consciousness depend on perturbation of the cortical soliloquy. Ascending activation of the cerebral cortex is characteristic for both waking and paradoxical (REM) sleep. These evolutionary conserved activating systems build a network in the brainstem, midbrain, and diencephalon that contains the neurotransmitters and neuromodulators glutamate, histamine, acetylcholine, the catecholamines, serotonin, and some neuropeptides orchestrating the different behavioral states. Inhibition of these waking systems by GABAergic neurons allows sleep. Over the past decades, a prominent role became evident for the histaminergic and the orexinergic neurons as a hypothalamic waking center.  相似文献   
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The way physics and other parts of science work can be explained in the framework of radical constructivism. However, this constructivist view itself shows that a uniquily accepted epistemology, constructivism or any other, would not be an advantage for the developmentof science. Unlike physics some parts of science successfully use constructivist concepts inside their theories. Because this is the case particularly in learning theory, constructivist ideas can help to improve physics teaching.  相似文献   
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It is investigated whether euro area variables can be forecast better based on synthetic time series for the pre‐euro period or by using just data from Germany for the pre‐euro period. Our forecast comparison is based on quarterly data for the period 1970Q1–2003Q4 for 10 macroeconomic variables. The years 2000–2003 are used as forecasting period. A range of different univariate forecasting methods is applied. Some of them are based on linear autoregressive models and we also use some nonlinear or time‐varying coefficient models. It turns out that most variables which have a similar level for Germany and the euro area such as prices can be better predicted based on German data, while aggregated European data are preferable for forecasting variables which need considerable adjustments in their levels when joining German and European Monetary Union (EMU) data. These results suggest that for variables which have a similar level for Germany and the euro area it may be reasonable to consider the German pre‐EMU data for studying economic problems in the euro area. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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有效哈密顿方法适用于低能区物理 ,以简单的一维量子系统为例 ,从量子跃迁矩阵元素出发构造一个等效哈密顿量。通过提高矩阵元的精确度来提高相关物理量的精度 ,达到改善计算结果的目的  相似文献   
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