Exploiting Spillovers to Forecast Crashes

We develop Hawkes models in which events are triggered through self‐excitation as well as cross‐excitation. We examine whether incorporating cross‐excitation improves the forecasts of extremes in asset returns compared to only self‐excitation. The models are applied to US stocks, bonds and dollar exchange rates. We predict the probability of crashes in the series and the value at risk (VaR) over a period that includes the financial crisis of 2008 using a moving window. A Lagrange multiplier test suggests the presence of cross‐excitation for these series. Out‐of‐sample, we find that the models that include spillover effects forecast crashes and the VaR significantly more accurately than the models without these effects. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Chymotrypsin C (CTRC) variants that diminish activity or secretion are associated with chronic pancreatitis

Chronic pancreatitis is a persistent inflammatory disease of the pancreas, in which the digestive protease trypsin has a fundamental pathogenetic role. Here we have analyzed the gene encoding the trypsin-degrading enzyme chymotrypsin C (CTRC) in German subjects with idiopathic or hereditary chronic pancreatitis. Two alterations in this gene, p.R254W and p.K247_R254del, were significantly overrepresented in the pancreatitis group, being present in 30 of 901 (3.3%) affected individuals but only 21 of 2,804 (0.7%) controls (odds ratio (OR) = 4.6; confidence interval (CI) = 2.6-8.0; P = 1.3 x 10(-7)). A replication study identified these two variants in 10 of 348 (2.9%) individuals with alcoholic chronic pancreatitis but only 3 of 432 (0.7%) subjects with alcoholic liver disease (OR = 4.2; CI = 1.2-15.5; P = 0.02). CTRC variants were also found in 10 of 71 (14.1%) Indian subjects with tropical pancreatitis but only 1 of 84 (1.2%) healthy controls (OR = 13.6; CI = 1.7-109.2; P = 0.0028). Functional analysis of the CTRC variants showed impaired activity and/or reduced secretion. The results indicate that loss-of-function alterations in CTRC predispose to pancreatitis by diminishing its protective trypsin-degrading activity.     

Mutations in different components of FGF signaling in LADD syndrome

Lacrimo-auriculo-dento-digital (LADD) syndrome is characterized by lacrimal duct aplasia, malformed ears and deafness, small teeth and digital anomalies. We identified heterozygous mutations in the tyrosine kinase domains of the genes encoding fibroblast growth factor receptors 2 and 3 (FGFR2, FGFR3) in LADD families, and in one further LADD family, we detected a mutation in the gene encoding fibroblast growth factor 10 (FGF10), a known FGFR ligand. These findings increase the spectrum of anomalies associated with abnormal FGF signaling.     

Ein Sensibilisator der therapeutischen Digitaliswirkung

Summary Complexes of bivalent tin with polyoxybenzene-polysulfonic acids have a diuretic effect, when injected subcutaneously in dogs or rabbits. The same compounds also sensibilize the cardiotonic effect of digitalis-substances on the isolated heart or on fragments of the isolated heart as usually employed for testing digitalis-substances.In a small number of patients suffering from heart disease, a rapid increase of their till then lowered diuresis was induced through subcutaneous injections of a solution of the above mentioned tin complex.     

Hydrodynamisches Ähnlichkeitsprinzip zur Bestimmung von Gelstrukturen aus Durchströmungsversuchen

Summary The permeability of jellies of known structure can be determined by experiments on models by application of a principle of hydrodynamical similarity.     

Jun Ishiwaras Text über Albert Einsteins Gastvortrag an der Universität zu Kyoto am 14. Dezember 1922

Ohne Zusammenfassung Vorgelegt von B. L. van der Waerden     

Genetics: relatedness among east African coelacanths

Coelacanths were discovered in the Comoros archipelago to the northwest of Madagascar in 1952. Since then, these rare, ancient fish have been found to the south off Mozambique, Madagascar and South Africa, and to the north off Kenya and Tanzania -- but it was unclear whether these are separate populations or even subspecies. Here we show that the genetic variation between individuals from these different locations is unexpectedly low. Combined with earlier results from submersible and oceanographic observations, our findings indicate that a separate African metapopulation is unlikely to have existed and that locations distant from the Comoros were probably inhabited relatively recently by either dead-end drifters or founders that originated in the Comoros.     

Revised rates for the stellar triple-alpha process from measurement of 12C nuclear resonances

In the centres of stars where the temperature is high enough, three alpha-particles (helium nuclei) are able to combine to form 12C because of a resonant reaction leading to a nuclear excited state. (Stars with masses greater than approximately 0.5 times that of the Sun will at some point in their lives have a central temperature high enough for this reaction to proceed.) Although the reaction rate is of critical significance for determining elemental abundances in the Universe, and for determining the size of the iron core of a star just before it goes supernova, it has hitherto been insufficiently determined. Here we report a measurement of the inverse process, where a 12C nucleus decays to three alpha-particles. We find a dominant resonance at an energy of approximately 11 MeV, but do not confirm the presence of a resonance at 9.1 MeV (ref. 3). We show that interference between two resonances has important effects on our measured spectrum. Using these data, we calculate the triple-alpha rate for temperatures from 10(7) K to 10(10) K and find significant deviations from the standard rates. Our rate below approximately 5 x 10(7) K is higher than the previous standard, implying that the critical amounts of carbon that catalysed hydrogen burning in the first stars are produced twice as fast as previously believed. At temperatures above 10(9) K, our rate is much less, which modifies predicted nucleosynthesis in supernovae.     

Mutations in the gene encoding fibroblast growth factor 10 are associated with aplasia of lacrimal and salivary glands

Autosomal dominant aplasia of lacrimal and salivary glands (ALSG; OMIM 180920 and OMIM 103420) is a rare condition characterized by irritable eyes and dryness of the mouth. We mapped ALSG to 5p13.2-5q13.1, which coincides with the gene fibroblast growth factor 10 (FGF10). In two extended pedigrees, we identified heterozygous mutations in FGF10 in all individuals with ALSG. Fgf10(+/-) mice have a phenotype similar to ALSG, providing a model for this disorder. We suggest that haploinsufficiency for FGF10 during a crucial stage of development results in ALSG.     

MYCN haploinsufficiency is associated with reduced brain size and intestinal atresias in Feingold syndrome

Feingold syndrome is characterized by variable combinations of esophageal and duodenal atresias, microcephaly, learning disability, syndactyly and cardiac defect. We show here that heterozygous mutations in the gene MYCN are present in Feingold syndrome. All mutations are predicted to disrupt both the full-length protein and a new shortened MYCN isoform, suggesting that multiple aspects of early embryogenesis and postnatal brain growth in humans are tightly regulated by MYCN dosage.