Numerical Simulation of the COVID-19 Herd Immunity Based on Complex Network Modeling北大核心CSCD

鉴于构建流行病动力学模型、探索流行病传播规律对疫情防控具有十分重要的理论意义和实际应用价值,在已有的均匀混合模型基础上,针对个体接触关系异质化越发明显,且每个个体都处在不同的接触关系中,建立了兼顾个体状态与接触追踪的动态小世界网络模型。模拟了新冠病毒在社会中的传播过程。通过对比仿真结果,说明了所建模型的合理性。在此基础上,仿真计算了网络拓扑结构与接种免疫人数占比共同作用下对新冠病毒传播的影响,分析得到群体免疫临界值。说明所建传播模型合理,接种疫苗实现群体免疫可行。     

Russell Ackoff's Jerusalem

This brief article looks at the influence of russ Ackoff's work, using as a focus of attention a maxim of the poet and philosopher William Blake. In particular, it considers Ackoff s contribution to the development of community operational research.     

Diagnosis and implementation: How a large cooperative employed a series of proposals for restructuring based upon the Viable Systems Model

Currently cooperatives of more than 11 members are facing organizational crisis: structure is imperative but traditional methods using authority and obedience are anathema. This paper recounts an attempt to use the Viable Systems Model to design an effective organizational structure within the constraints of cooperative working practices. It begins with the diagnosis, describes how the resulting conclusions were received by the cooperative, and gives an account of the resulting organizational structure. The success of the project is assessed.     

Systemic praxis in the education of the agricultural systems practitioner

This paper describes the context and the systemic experiential theories that have informed the praxis of educating agricultural systems practitioners. The praxis has involved a process of action research with students and with clients in farming and other rural community organizations. The praxis encourages learners to bring a range of methodologies of inquiry to bear upon problematic issues, contingent upon the nature of such issues. Informed by a number of different theories, and by reflecting on our own work, an earlier model of a nested hierarchy of systems of inquiry has been reconstructed to become a more useful guide to educational strategies: Each contingent methodology can now be seen to have its own learning, meta-learning, and epistemic learning dimensions. A key to enriched learning for responsible changes in agriculture and rural development lies in the facilitation of the consciousness of, and competency at, such a systemic pluralism of methodologies.     

System waste in education and research: A Delphi study in India

A concept of system waste has been developed, and reported in the literature, to focus explicitly on waste and its reduction. In this study, which is a part of the authors' ongoing research on system waste, an attempt has been made to estimate current and future system waste in education and research (EDR) in India. The concept of system waste, which is defined as “any unnecessary input to and/or any undesirable output from any system,” is complex, multifaceted, subjective and not generally clearly understood. Its study is a fit case for the use of qualitative group problem-solving techniques. Delphi is the technique which has been used here to learn about system waste. A two-round Delphi study was conducted in 1990 in EDR in which teachers, educational administrators, planners, and parents participated. The paper describes the study and its results.     

Which authorities are alike?

This article describes the first results from the recent revision to The ONS classification of local and health authorities of Great Britain to allow for boundary changes. For each local and health authority of Great Britain as at April 1999 it presents 'most similar' authorities as measured by a selection of 37 socioeconomic and demographic variables from the 1991 Census. These results will assist local and health authorities in identifying other appropriate authorities for comparative studies. A second article, to be published in Population Trends 99, will present the results of the analysis to identify groups of authorities in a hierarchy of new Clusters, Groups and Families for the revised classification.     

土壤质量及其评价指标

在提出土壤质量概念的共性中，重要的是土壤在现今和将来均能有效地挥功能，在这种能力的基础上，认为土壤质量评价指标不要简化，要多层次，应满足5个标准，并对现有的物理，化学，生物评价指标的实用性有其优缺点进行了分析。参24。     

Business Process Reengineering (BPR) Versus Outsourcing—Critical Perspectives

This article presents a case example involving the renaming of an organizational change process from BPR to outsourcing. The paper discusses the important ramifications of such a name change in that the recognition of outsourcing allowed an organizational commitment to counseling and termination advice. The paper discusses two ways of looking at the name change, one from a critical theory perspective and one from a realist perspective. It demonstrates how theory can provide useful yet markedly different interpretations of such organizational events. Critical theory operates from within what can be termed the transitive epistemological dimension, whereas critical realism tends to emphasize the importance of ontological issues. Each has important things to say about the situation and improves our understanding overall.     

ON THE TOTAL DISTANCE BETWEEN NODES IN TREES

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