Exploring Survey‐Based Inflation Forecasts

This paper first shows that survey‐based expectations (SBE) outperform standard time series models in US quarterly inflation out‐of‐sample prediction and that the term structure of survey‐based inflation forecasts has predictive power over the path of future inflation changes. It then proposes some empirical explanations for the forecasting success of survey‐based inflation expectations. We show that SBE pool a large amount of heterogeneous information on inflation expectations and react more flexibly and accurately to macro conditions both contemporaneously and dynamically. We illustrate the flexibility of SBE forecasts in the context of the 2008 financial crisis. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

PNPLA1 mutations cause autosomal recessive congenital ichthyosis in golden retriever dogs and humans

Ichthyoses comprise a heterogeneous group of genodermatoses characterized by abnormal desquamation over the whole body, for which the genetic causes of several human forms remain unknown. We used a spontaneous dog model in the golden retriever breed, which is affected by a lamellar ichthyosis resembling human autosomal recessive congenital ichthyoses (ARCI), to carry out a genome-wide association study. We identified a homozygous insertion-deletion (indel) mutation in PNPLA1 that leads to a premature stop codon in all affected golden retriever dogs. We subsequently found one missense and one nonsense mutation in the catalytic domain of human PNPLA1 in six individuals with ARCI from two families. Further experiments highlighted the importance of PNPLA1 in the formation of the epidermal lipid barrier. This study identifies a new gene involved in human ichthyoses and provides insights into the localization and function of this yet uncharacterized member of the PNPLA protein family.     

Common variants near TARDBP and EGR2 are associated with susceptibility to Ewing sarcoma

Ewing sarcoma, a pediatric tumor characterized by EWSR1-ETS fusions, is predominantly observed in populations of European ancestry. We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 401 French individuals with Ewing sarcoma, 684 unaffected French individuals and 3,668 unaffected individuals of European descent and living in the United States. We identified candidate risk loci at 1p36.22, 10q21 and 15q15. We replicated these loci in two independent sets of cases and controls. Joint analysis identified associations with rs9430161 (P = 1.4 × 10(-20); odds ratio (OR) = 2.2) located 25 kb upstream of TARDBP, rs224278 (P = 4.0 × 10(-17); OR = 1.7) located 5 kb upstream of EGR2 and, to a lesser extent, rs4924410 at 15q15 (P = 6.6 × 10(-9); OR = 1.5). The major risk haplotypes were less prevalent in Africans, suggesting that these loci could contribute to geographical differences in Ewing sarcoma incidence. TARDBP shares structural similarities with EWSR1 and FUS, which encode RNA binding proteins, and EGR2 is a target gene of EWSR1-ETS. Variants at these loci were associated with expression levels of TARDBP, ADO (encoding cysteamine dioxygenase) and EGR2.     

Rediscovered population of Mexican Plateau spotted whiptail lizard, Aspidoscelis septemvittata , from México, D.F.

Multiple surveys carried out by herpetologists in México, D.F., during the 1980s failed to find specimens of Aspidoscelis septemvitatta (Squamata: Teiidae). However, 10 specimens were recently collected to the east of México, D.F., inside a protected area, Sierra de Santa Catarina. The Sierra de Santa Catarina has been heavily modified by human activity and habitation. Morphological and natural history information about the specimens are presented, as well as notes on locality.     

Comparative life history for populations of the Sceloporus grammicus complex (Squamata: Phrynosomatidae)

A Teotihuacán population of the Sceloporus grammicus complex was compared with other previously studied populations (Parque Nacional Zoquiapan [PNZ], Monte Alegre Ajusco [MAA], Pedregal San Angel [PSA], Cantimplora [CA], Capulín, Laguna, Paredon, Michilia, and south Texas) for variations in several life history characteristics (SVL at sexual maturity, reproductive period, ovulation and gestation time, and litter size). Mean body size at sexual maturity of females from Teotihuacán was larger than PNZ, MAA, CA, and Capulín. Reproductive period (vitellogenesis, ovulation, gestation, and birth) for the Teotihuacán population was the shortest of all populations. In the Teotihuacán population, gestation time was similar to the Capulínand MAA populations but was shorter than all other populations except the Michilia population. Embryonic development at ovulation varied among populations, with Teotihuacán and Capulín showing earlier stages (stages 1) at ovulation than all other populations. Teotihuacán, PSA, PNZ, and Texas all showed similar litter size, which were larger than Laguna, Paredon, MAA, Capulín, and CA populations. Differences in reproductive characteristics of these populations could indicate phylogenetically constrained, reproductively isolated populations, or they may be explained as merely responses to different environments.     

Plovers breeding in the highlands of Jalisco, Aguascalientes, Zacatecas, and San Luis Potosí, central Mexico

From April to July 2008, we surveyed for breeding plovers at 32 sites in the semiarid highlands of Jalisco, Aguascalientes, Zacatecas, and San Luis Potosí, in the Central Mexican High Plateau. We documented evidence or presumption of breeding Snowy Plovers ( Charadrius alexandrinus ) at 3 sites, Killdeer ( C. vociferus ) at 15 sites, and Mountain Plovers ( C. montanus ) at 1 site. Our surveys showed that the region is important breeding ground for only the Killdeer. We documented an apparent breeding range extension of the Mountain Plover to slightly more than 200 km south of its previously known breeding range.     

Dynamics of a dwarf bear-poppy ( Arctomecon humilis ) population over a sixteen-year period

A population of the dwarf bear-poppy ( Arctomecon humilis Coville, Papaveraceae) at Red Bluff, Washington County, Utah, was monitored twice annually between 1987 and 2002. This is a narrowly endemic, gypsophilous species that has been formally listed as endangered since 1979. During the 16 years of observation, density of this species has fluctuated between 3 and 1336 individuals on the 0.07-ha monitoring plot. Moderate to large recruitments of seedlings occurred in 1992, 1995, and 2001. Seedling recruitments from a large, long-lived seed bank are triggered by abundant precipitation during the February-April period. At least 5.0 cm of rainfall is required during that interval to produce any seedlings. Seedlings experienced considerable mortality in the 1st few months of life in all observed cases. The average seedling initiated in the very large recruitment event of 1992 survived for only 2.6 years. Seedlings in that cohort that were alive 1 year after germination had an average longevity of 4.6 years. None of the seedlings that emerged in 1992 were still alive in October 2002. Mortality in this species was poorly correlated with fluctuations in precipitation or temperature. No epidemics of parasites or herbivores were observed. Mortality in the species appears to be caused by a variety of factors acting over a cohort's lifetime.     

A transition zone complex regulates mammalian ciliogenesis and ciliary membrane composition

Mutations affecting ciliary components cause ciliopathies. As described here, we investigated Tectonic1 (Tctn1), a regulator of mouse Hedgehog signaling, and found that it is essential for ciliogenesis in some, but not all, tissues. Cell types that do not require Tctn1 for ciliogenesis require it to localize select membrane-associated proteins to the cilium, including Arl13b, AC3, Smoothened and Pkd2. Tctn1 forms a complex with multiple ciliopathy proteins associated with Meckel and Joubert syndromes, including Mks1, Tmem216, Tmem67, Cep290, B9d1, Tctn2 and Cc2d2a. Components of this complex co-localize at the transition zone, a region between the basal body and ciliary axoneme. Like Tctn1, loss of Tctn2, Tmem67 or Cc2d2a causes tissue-specific defects in ciliogenesis and ciliary membrane composition. Consistent with a shared function for complex components, we identified a mutation in TCTN1 that causes Joubert syndrome. Thus, a transition zone complex of Meckel and Joubert syndrome proteins regulates ciliary assembly and trafficking, suggesting that transition zone dysfunction is the cause of these ciliopathies.     

Demography of the Yarrow's spiny lizard, Sceloporus jarrovii , from the central Chihuahuan Desert

The demography of a population of Yarrow's spiny lizard, Sceloporus jarrovii , was examined from 2004 to 2006 in the canyon Las Piedras Encimadas, located in Gomez Palacio, Durango, México. Lizards were studied using a mark-recapture technique. Reproduction in females occurred between November and May, coinciding with dry conditions. Reproductive activity was highest (percent of females with vitellogenic follicles or embryos) in the middle of the dry season (November and December). Thirteen percent of females reached sexual maturity at an average age of 8.5 months. The population structure was similar in spring and fall, but not in summer. A notable feature of summer, coinciding with the wet season, was the greater number of hatchlings and juveniles. The overall sex ratio did not differ from 1:1. The density of adults varied from 12 to 62 animals ? 0.5 ha –1 . Temperate and arid-adapted populations of S. jarrovii exhibited broad similarity in timing of the reproductive season, whereas factors such as density, growth, age at sexual maturity, and survivorship differed.