Spawning chronology and larval emergence of June sucker ( Chasmistes liorus )

June sucker ( Chasmistes liorus ) spawned in the Provo River, Utah, over a 2-wk period in early June during both 1987 and 1988. Emergent larvae emigrated from the river to Utah Lake over a 2- to 3-wk period. Drift into the lake peaked between 1200 and 0400. During daylight hours, emergent larvae tended to occur in pools. Peak emergence of larval drift was approximately 1.2 larvae/m 3 during late June in 1987 and 1988. Recruitment failure of June sucker is not due to reproductive failure.     

Do professional forecasters believe in the Phillips curve? evidence from the G7 countries

This paper uses monthly survey data for the G7 countries for the time period 1989–2007 to explore the link between expectations on nominal wages, prices and unemployment rates as suggested by the wage and price Phillips curves. Four major findings stand out. First, we find that survey participants trust in both types of Phillips curve relationships. Second, we find evidence in favor of nonlinearities in the price Phillips curve. Third, we take into account a kink in the price Phillips curve to indicate that the slope of the Phillips curve differs during the business cycle. We find strong evidence of this feature in the data which confirms recent theoretical discussions. Fourth, we employ our data to the expectations‐augmented Phillips curve model. The results suggest that professional forecasters adopt this model when forecasting macroeconomic variables. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

实际样本调查统计学：非简单随机样本和赋值数据

在社会和商业等调查中所采用的样本通常并不如人们想象的那么随机，这种非随机性可能会影响由调查数据中得出的结论。     

Tourism in the Canary Islands: forecasting using several seasonal time series models

This paper deals with the analysis of the number of tourists travelling to the Canary Islands by means of using different seasonal statistical models. Deterministic and stochastic seasonality is considered. For the latter case, we employ seasonal unit roots and seasonally fractionally integrated models. As a final approach, we also employ a model with possibly different orders of integration at zero and the seasonal frequencies. All these models are compared in terms of their forecasting ability in an out‐of‐sample experiment. The results in the paper show that a simple deterministic model with seasonal dummy variables and AR(1) disturbances produce better results than other approaches based on seasonal fractional and integer differentiation over short horizons. However, increasing the time horizon, the results cannot distinguish between the model based on seasonal dummies and another using fractional integration at zero and the seasonal frequencies. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Radio harness system for bobcat kittens

Eight bobcat kittens were fitted with a specially designed harness system supporting a radio transmitter. These kittens were the youngest known to be radio-instrumented. This system was used successfully through two seasons, from June 1989 to January 1991. Litters of kittens were located soon after birth for weighing, marking, and aging (by tooth eruption). During the first year when kittens were at least eight weeks old and six weeks old the second year, attempts were made to radio-instrument kittens in each litter. This harness system allowed litters to be located periodically until their death or dispersal. We were able to collect important data during the most crucial and least known weeks of the lives of bobcat kittens.     

A Study of the Effect of Functional Subcultures on the Performance of Hong Kong Construction Companies

As some theorists regard organizational culture as ambiguities, this study attempts to prove that ambiguities are actually the resultant overview of interacting and dissimilar functional subcultures. Therefore, study of the effect of culture on performance should focus on the subculture system instead of the illusive and probably non-existing unitary corporate culture. To this end, a consensual structural framework that effectively demarcates the boundaries of subcultures is needed. By using the Viable System Model as a structural framework for the demarcation of functional subcultures, a questionnaire survey on construction professionals in Hong Kong was conducted. Statistical analysis results indicate that corporate culture could be better understood as a system of functional subcultures that correspond to the five functions of the viable system model. It is further noted that the strength of some functional subculture variables associates differently and significantly with organizational performance.     

A Meta‐learning Framework for Bankruptcy Prediction

The implication of corporate bankruptcy prediction is important to financial institutions when making lending decisions. In related studies, many bankruptcy prediction models have been developed based on some machine‐learning techniques. This paper presents a meta‐learning framework, which is composed of two‐level classifiers for bankruptcy prediction. The first‐level multiple classifiers perform the data reduction task by filtering out unrepresentative training data. Then, the outputs of the first‐level classifiers are utilized to create the second‐level single (meta) classifier. The experiments are based on five related datasets and the results show that the proposed meta‐learning framework provides higher prediction accuracy rates and lower type I/II errors when compared with the stacked generalization classifier and other three widely developed baselines, such as neural networks, decision trees, and logistic regression. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Functional methods for time series prediction: a nonparametric approach

The problem of prediction in time series using nonparametric functional techniques is considered. An extension of the local linear method to regression with functional explanatory variable is proposed. This forecasting method is compared with the functional Nadaraya–Watson method and with finite‐dimensional nonparametric predictors for several real‐time series. Prediction intervals based on the bootstrap and conditional distribution estimation for those nonparametric methods are also compared. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecasting euro area inflation using dynamic factor measures of underlying inflation

Standard measures of prices are often contaminated by transitory shocks. This has prompted economists to suggest the use of measures of underlying inflation to formulate monetary policy and assist in forecasting observed inflation. Recent work has concentrated on modelling large data sets using factor models. In this paper we estimate factors from data sets of disaggregated price indices for European countries. We then assess the forecasting ability of these factor estimates against other measures of underlying inflation built from more traditional methods. The power to forecast headline inflation over horizons of 12 to 18 months is adopted as a valid criterion to assess forecasting. Empirical results for the five largest euro area countries, as well as for the euro area itself, are presented. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.