Year-round activity patterns in a hyperdiverse community of rainforest amphibians in Madagascar

Madagascar hosts a high diversity of amphibians estimated at over 500 species, nearly all of them endemic. Surprisingly few data are available on the activity cycles of this fauna, despite its importance for ecological, evolutionary and conservation research. Here we report the results of a year-round survey of amphibians along a transect bordering the Analamazaotra forest near Andasibe in central eastern Madagascar. During 120 transect walks evenly spaced through the year, a total of 2530 individuals of 40 species of anurans was observed. Abundance was higher during the warm/rainy season (December to April) and peaked in February. Of the five climatic predictors measured, only mean temperature and relative humidity showed high importance values, and multi-model averages indicate that these two variables have a strong effect on amphibian abundance along the transect. Species richness showed no evident peak during the study period and was best explained by a model including average temperature and rainfall. Canonical correspondence analysis indicates that Boophis sibilans, B. tephraeomystax, B. boehmei and Plethodontohyla notosticta were more frequently encountered along the transect on cold and humid days while Plethodontohyla mihanika, Gephyromantis boulengeri and Spinomantis aglavei were distinctly more abundant on cold and dry days, and Paradoxophyla palmata on warm and dry days. The results of our study flag a number of species as suitable candidates for future monitoring initiatives and suggest that a simple combination of visual and acoustic surveys can estimate amphibian activity with high sample sizes in Madagascar’s rainforests.     

Unobserved components in ARCH models: An application to seasonal adjustment

The paper deals with unobserved components in ARIMA models with GARCH errors, in the context of an actual application, namely seasonal adjustment of the monthly Spanish money supply series. The series shows clear evidence of (moderate) non-linearity, which does not disappear with simple outlier correction. The GARCH structure explains reasonably well the non-linearity, and this explanation is robust with respect to the GARCH specification. We look at the time variation of the standard error of the adjusted series estimator and show how it can be measured. Next, we look at the implications this variation has on short-term monetary control. The non-linearity seems to have a small effect in practice. It is further seen that the conditional variance of the GARCH process may, in turn, be decomposed into components. In fact, the conditional variance of the money supply series is the sum of a weak linear trend, a strong non-linear seasonal component, and a moderate non-linear irregular component. This information has policy implications: for example, there are periods in the year when policy can be more assertive because information is more precise. Finally, looking at the non-linear components of the money supply it is seen how linear combinations of non-linear series can produce series that behave linearly.     

Shift-contagion in energy markets and global crisis

This paper presents an analysis of shift-contagion in energy markets, testing whether linkages between returns in energy markets increase during crisis periods. The research presented herein demonstrates how common movement between energy markets increases due to (i) shift-contagion across energy markets, reflected by structural transmission of shocks across markets and (ii) larger common shocks operating through standard cross-market interdependences. A regime-switching model was developed to detect shift-contagion across energy markets. In the approach adopted herein, the occurrence of shift-contagion is endogenously estimated rather than being exogenously assigned. The results show that shift-contagion has been a major feature of energy markets over the last decade. Evidence is presented which demonstrates that the linkages between energy markets do not appear to be stable. These results are remarkably accurate for forecasting Brent and natural gas for horizons for up to 50 days. Conversely, for WTI (West Texas Intermediate oil) and coal, the model performs well only for forecasting very short horizons (up to 20 days). For all products, the model shows significant biases for long horizons.     

Cellular mechanisms responsible for cell-to-cell spreading of prions

Prions are infectious agents that cause fatal neurodegenerative diseases. Current evidence indicates that they are essentially composed of an abnormally folded protein (PrP^Sc). These abnormal aggregated PrP^Sc species multiply in infected cells by recruiting and converting the host PrP^C protein into new PrP^Sc. How prions move from cell to cell and progressively spread across the infected tissue is of crucial importance and may provide experimental opportunity to delay the progression of the disease. In infected cells, different mechanisms have been identified, including release of infectious extracellular vesicles and intercellular transfer of PrP^Sc-containing organelles through tunneling nanotubes. These findings should allow manipulation of the intracellular trafficking events targeting PrP^Sc in these particular subcellular compartments to experimentally address the relative contribution of these mechanisms to in vivo prion pathogenesis. In addition, such information may prompt further experimental strategies to decipher the causal roles of protein misfolding and aggregation in other human neurodegenerative diseases.     

Maternal eating behavior is a major synchronizer of fetal and postnatal peripheral clocks in mice

Most living organisms show circadian rhythms in physiology and behavior. These oscillations are generated by endogenous circadian clocks, present in virtually all cells where they control key biological processes. To study peripheral clocks in vivo, we developed an original model, the Rev-Luc mouse to follow noninvasively and longitudinally Rev-Luc oscillations in peripheral clocks using in vivo bioluminescence imaging. We found in vitro and in vivo a robust diurnal rhythm of Rev-Luc, mainly in liver, intestine, kidney and adipose tissues. We further confirmed in vivo that Rev-Luc peripheral tissues are food-entrainable oscillators, not affected by age or sex. These data strongly support the relevance of the Rev-Luc model for circadian studies, especially to investigate in vivo the establishment and the entrainment of the rhythm throughout ontogenesis. We then showed that Rev-Luc expression develops dynamically and gradually, both in amplitude and in phase, during fetal and postnatal development. We also demonstrate for the first time that the immature peripheral circadian system of offspring in utero is mainly entrained by maternal cues from feeding regimen. The prenatal entrainment will also differentially determine the Rev-Luc expression in pups before weaning underlining the importance of the maternal chrononutrition on the circadian system entrainment of the offspring.     

A decision rule to minimize daily capital charges in forecasting value‐at‐risk

Under the Basel II Accord, banks and other authorized deposit‐taking institutions (ADIs) have to communicate their daily risk estimates to the monetary authorities at the beginning of the trading day, using a variety of value‐at‐risk (VaR) models to measure risk. Sometimes the risk estimates communicated using these models are too high, thereby leading to large capital requirements and high capital costs. At other times, the risk estimates are too low, leading to excessive violations, so that realized losses are above the estimated risk. In this paper we analyze the profit‐maximizing problem of an ADI subject to capital requirements under the Basel II Accord as ADIs have to choose an optimal VaR reporting strategy that minimizes daily capital charges. Accordingly, we suggest a dynamic communication and forecasting strategy that responds to violations in a discrete and instantaneous manner, while adapting more slowly in periods of no violations. We apply the proposed strategy to Standard & Poor's 500 Index and show there can be substantial savings in daily capital charges, while restricting the number of violations to within the Basel II penalty limits. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Activation of ataxia telangiectasia muted under experimental models and human Parkinson’s disease

In the present study we demonstrated that neurotoxin MPP⁺-induced DNA damage is followed by ataxia telangiectasia muted (ATM) activation either in cerebellar granule cells (CGC) or in B65 cell line. In CGC, the selective ATM inhibitor KU-55933 showed neuroprotective effects against MPP⁺-induced neuronal cell loss and apoptosis, lending support to the key role of ATM in experimental models of Parkinson’s disease. Likewise, we showed that knockdown of ATM levels in neuroblastoma B65 cells using an ATM-specific siRNA attenuates the phosphorylation of retinoblastoma protein without affecting other cell-cycle proteins involved in the G₀/G₁ cell-cycle phase. Moreover, we demonstrated DNA damage, in human brain samples of PD patients. These findings support a model in which MPP⁺ leads to ATM activation with a subsequent DNA damage response and activation of pRb. Therefore, this study demonstrates a new link between DNA damage by MPP⁺ and cell-cycle re-entry through retinoblastoma protein phosphorylation.