High plant diversity is needed to maintain ecosystem services

Biodiversity is rapidly declining worldwide, and there is consensus that this can decrease ecosystem functioning and services. It remains unclear, though, whether few or many of the species in an ecosystem are needed to sustain the provisioning of ecosystem services. It has been hypothesized that most species would promote ecosystem services if many times, places, functions and environmental changes were considered; however, no previous study has considered all of these factors together. Here we show that 84% of the 147 grassland plant species studied in 17 biodiversity experiments promoted ecosystem functioning at least once. Different species promoted ecosystem functioning during different years, at different places, for different functions and under different environmental change scenarios. Furthermore, the species needed to provide one function during multiple years were not the same as those needed to provide multiple functions within one year. Our results indicate that even more species will be needed to maintain ecosystem functioning and services than previously suggested by studies that have either (1) considered only the number of species needed to promote one function under one set of environmental conditions, or (2) separately considered the importance of biodiversity for providing ecosystem functioning across multiple years, places, functions or environmental change scenarios. Therefore, although species may appear functionally redundant when one function is considered under one set of environmental conditions, many species are needed to maintain multiple functions at multiple times and places in a changing world.     

Computer optimization of a minimal biped model discovers walking and running

Although people's legs are capable of a broad range of muscle-use and gait patterns, they generally prefer just two. They walk, swinging their body over a relatively straight leg with each step, or run, bouncing up off a bent leg between aerial phases. Walking feels easiest when going slowly, and running feels easiest when going faster. More unusual gaits seem more tiring. Perhaps this is because walking and running use the least energy. Addressing this classic conjecture with experiments requires comparing walking and running with many other strange and unpractised gaits. As an alternative, a basic understanding of gait choice might be obtained by calculating energy cost by using mechanics-based models. Here we use a minimal model that can describe walking and running as well as an infinite variety of other gaits. We use computer optimization to find which gaits are indeed energetically optimal for this model. At low speeds the optimization discovers the classic inverted-pendulum walk, at high speeds it discovers a bouncing run, even without springs, and at intermediate speeds it finds a new pendular-running gait that includes walking and running as extreme cases.     

Early human use of marine resources and pigment in South Africa during the Middle Pleistocene

Genetic and anatomical evidence suggests that Homo sapiens arose in Africa between 200 and 100 thousand years (kyr) ago, and recent evidence indicates symbolic behaviour may have appeared approximately 135-75 kyr ago. From 195-130 kyr ago, the world was in a fluctuating but predominantly glacial stage (marine isotope stage MIS6); much of Africa was cooler and drier, and dated archaeological sites are rare. Here we show that by approximately 164 kyr ago (+/-12 kyr) at Pinnacle Point (on the south coast of South Africa) humans expanded their diet to include marine resources, perhaps as a response to these harsh environmental conditions. The earliest previous evidence for human use of marine resources and coastal habitats was dated to approximately 125 kyr ago. Coincident with this diet and habitat expansion is an early use and modification of pigment, probably for symbolic behaviour, as well as the production of bladelet stone tool technology, previously dated to post-70 kyr ago. Shellfish may have been crucial to the survival of these early humans as they expanded their home ranges to include coastlines and followed the shifting position of the coast when sea level fluctuated over the length of MIS6.     

Patterns of somatic mutation in human cancer genomes

Cancers arise owing to mutations in a subset of genes that confer growth advantage. The availability of the human genome sequence led us to propose that systematic resequencing of cancer genomes for mutations would lead to the discovery of many additional cancer genes. Here we report more than 1,000 somatic mutations found in 274 megabases (Mb) of DNA corresponding to the coding exons of 518 protein kinase genes in 210 diverse human cancers. There was substantial variation in the number and pattern of mutations in individual cancers reflecting different exposures, DNA repair defects and cellular origins. Most somatic mutations are likely to be 'passengers' that do not contribute to oncogenesis. However, there was evidence for 'driver' mutations contributing to the development of the cancers studied in approximately 120 genes. Systematic sequencing of cancer genomes therefore reveals the evolutionary diversity of cancers and implicates a larger repertoire of cancer genes than previously anticipated.     

Methodology used for producing ONS's small area population estimates

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has set up a project to investigate the feasibility of producing postcensal small area population estimates on a nationally consistent basis for England and Wales. Following on from earlier investigations to identify potential data sources and methods, ward and Super Output Area population estimates have been released as 'experimental statistics'. This article covers the methodology used to produce these estimates, feedback from user consultation with the initial estimates released at ward level, summary statistics on the population estimates for mid-2001 to mid-2003, and future developments for small area population estimates.     

The development of a 'Postcode Best Fit' methodology for producing population estimates for different geographies

A 'Postcode Best Fit' methodology has been developed by the Office for National Statistics to produce population estimates for a range of different geographies which are entirely consistent with each other, regardless of whether or not the estimates for one geography can be aggregated to produce estimates for another geography. This article describes the Postcode Best Fit methodology, its evaluation, limitations with some of the data sources used with the method, the application of the method for producing population estimates and case studies describing how the method has been used to produce bespoke population estimates to meet specific user requirements.     

Comparison of prospective Hawkes and recursive point process models for Ebola in DRC

Point process models, such as Hawkes and recursive models, have recently been shown to offer improved accuracy over more traditional compartmental models for the purposes of modeling and forecasting the spread of disease epidemics. To explicitly test the performance of these two models in a real-world and ongoing epidemic, we compared the fit of Hawkes and recursive models to outbreak data on Ebola virus disease (EVD) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in 2018–2020. The models were estimated, and the forecasts were produced, time-stamped, and stored in real time, so that their prospective value can be assessed and to guard against potential overfitting. The fit of the two models was similar, with both models resulting in much smaller errors in the beginning and waning phases of the epidemic and with slightly smaller error sizes on average for the Hawkes model compared with the recursive model. Our results suggest that both Hawkes and recursive point process models can be used in near real time during the course of an epidemic to help predict future cases and inform management and mitigation strategies.     

Subgroup-specific structural variation across 1,000 medulloblastoma genomes

Medulloblastoma, the most common malignant paediatric brain tumour, is currently treated with nonspecific cytotoxic therapies including surgery, whole-brain radiation, and aggressive chemotherapy. As medulloblastoma exhibits marked intertumoural heterogeneity, with at least four distinct molecular variants, previous attempts to identify targets for therapy have been underpowered because of small samples sizes. Here we report somatic copy number aberrations (SCNAs) in 1,087 unique medulloblastomas. SCNAs are common in medulloblastoma, and are predominantly subgroup-enriched. The most common region of focal copy number gain is a tandem duplication of SNCAIP, a gene associated with Parkinson's disease, which is exquisitely restricted to Group 4α. Recurrent translocations of PVT1, including PVT1-MYC and PVT1-NDRG1, that arise through chromothripsis are restricted to Group 3. Numerous targetable SCNAs, including recurrent events targeting TGF-β signalling in Group 3, and NF-κB signalling in Group 4, suggest future avenues for rational, targeted therapy.