Which survey indicators are useful for monitoring consumption? Evidence from European countries

This paper assesses the information content of two survey indicators for consumption developments in the near future for eight European countries in the period 1985–1998. Empirical work on this topic typically focuses on consumer confidence, the perceptions of buyers of consumption goods. This paper examines whether perceptions of sellers of consumption goods, measured by retail trade surveys, may also improve short‐term monitoring of consumption. We find that both consumer confidence and retailer confidence embody valuable information, when analysed in isolation. For France, Italy and Spain we conclude that adding retail confidence does not improve the indicator model once consumer confidence has been included. For the UK the reverse case is obtained. For the remaining four countries we show that combining consumer sentiment and retail trade confidence into a composite indicator leads to optimal results. Our results suggest that incorporating information from retail trade surveys may offer significant benefits for the analysis of short‐term prospects of consumption. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

一种适于强横向变速的高阶差分正演模拟方法

波动方程正演模拟法相对于射线法具有精度高、效率低的特点。为了提高其效率 ,提出了一种高阶差分正演模拟方法。该方法考虑了速度场局部的强横向变化 ,适于复杂介质的正演模拟 ;在相同精度下 ,高阶差分的空间横向间隔可取为低阶差分的 2～ 4倍 ,有较高的计算效率 ;高阶差分加上合适的边界条件能较好地解决网格频散和边界效应问题。通过对Marmousi模型的试算 ,验证了该方法对复杂速度模型的适应性、有效性和实用性。     

试论"代表先进社会生产力发展要求"是对历史唯物主义的新发展

中国共产党始终代表中国先进生产力的发展要求的论断,是站在历史唯物主义的角度,揭示出我们党兴旺发达的根本动力.     

Exponential smoothing: Behavior of the ex-post sum of squares near 0 and 1

When using simple exponential smoothing on a given time series the nature of the relationship between the optimal smoothing constant and the autocorrelation structure of the series remains an unresolved question. Although numerical search routines can easily be used to find optimal values of the smoothing constant, they offer little insight into the nature of the relationship between the estimated smoothing constant and the structure of the underlying time series. We suggest that renewed investigations of the ex-post sum of squares function may prove helpful in this pursuit. Results are presented that illustrate how the optimal smoothing constant depends upon the value used to initialize the smoothing and upon the sample autocorrelation coefficients of the observed series. These results are based on a new formula for the derivative of the ex-post sum of squares function. In particular, the derivative is examined near 0 and 1, where great simplifications occur in its form, thereby facilitating investigations near these points. A necessary and sufficient condition is stated for when the ex-post sum of squares must have a positive derivative at 0 and the autocorrelation coefficients of the differenced series are shown to affect the sign of the derivative near 1. Based on these results, a general algorithm is presented as an alternative to grid search routines for minimizing the ex-post sum of squares.     

Effect of volatile anesthetics on the circular dichroism of bilirubin bound to human serum albumin

The characteristic circular dichroism of bilirubin bound to human serum albumin undergoes a remarkable sign inversion on addition of halothane, chloroform and other volatile anesthetics. This sign inversion, which is completely reversed by removal of the anesthetic, reflects a pronounced conformational change of the bound ligand; probably a complete inversion of chirality. The observation suggests that association of volatile anesthetics with proteins can markedly alter the internal topography of receptor sites and potentially influence the stereoselectivity of ligand binding.     

负反馈电桥在电阻传感器线性化中的应用

本文介绍利用信号流图及梅森公式分析设计负反馈电桥电路,以及在电阻传感器测量线性化中的应用。     

Estimation and testing of time-varying coefficient regression models in the presence of linear restrictions

A linear regression model with random walk coefficients is extended to allow for linear restrictions between the coefficients to be satisfied at each point in time. Estimation in this model is shown to be no more involved than estimation in the standard model. It is also demonstrated how, after a slight modification to the testing problem, classical test procedures may be applied to the problem of testing for such restrictions. The performance of the Lagrange Multiplier test for a variety of different restrictions is then investigated via simulation. An empirical application involving testing for homogeneity in a random walk coefficient version of the AIDS model is given.     

Nuclear localization and signalling activity of phosphoinositidase C beta in Swiss 3T3 cells.

The hydrolysis of phosphatidylinositol 4,5-bisphosphate (PtdInsP2) is a widespread receptor-coupled signalling system at the plasma membrane of most eukaryotic cells. The existence of an entirely separate nuclear phosphoinositide signalling system is suggested from evidence that purified nuclei synthesize PtdInsP2 and phosphatidylinositol 4-phosphate (PtdInsP) in vitro and that a transient decrease in the mass of these lipids occurs when Swiss 3T3 cells are cultured in the presence of insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1). These IGF-1-dependent changes in inositol lipids coincide with an increase in nuclear diacyglycerol and precede translocation to the nucleus and activation of protein kinase C (refs 5, 6). Circumstantial evidence that links these changes with mitosis comes from the isolation of a 3T3 clone that expresses the type-1 IGF receptor and binds IGF-1 peptide but does not respond mitogenically or show transient mass changes in nuclear inositol lipids. A key question is how IGF-1 initiates the rapid breakdown of PtdInsP and PtdInsP2 in the nucleus. Here we present evidence that nuclei of 3T3 cells contain the beta-isozyme of phosphoinositidase C, whereas the gamma-isozyme is confined to the cytoplasm and that IGF-1 treatment stimulates exclusively the activity of nuclear phosphoinositidase C.