Identification of asymmetric prediction intervals through causal forces

When causal forces are specified, the expected direction of the trend can be compared with the trend based on extrapolation. Series in which the expected trend conflicts with the extrapolated trend are called contrary series. We hypothesized that contrary series would have asymmetric forecast errors, with larger errors in the direction of the expected trend. Using annual series that contained minimal information about causality, we examined 671 contrary forecasts. As expected, most (81%) of the errors were in the direction of the causal forces. Also as expected, the asymmetries were more likely for longer forecast horizons; for six‐year‐ahead forecasts, 89% of the forecasts were in the expected direction. The asymmetries were often substantial. Contrary series should be flagged and treated separately when prediction intervals are estimated, perhaps by shifting the interval in the direction of the causal forces. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Silymarin, an inhibitor of lipoxygenase.

Silybin (I), silydianin (II) and silychristin (III), the constituents of silymarin, non-competitively inhibit the lipoxygenase from soybeans (EC 1.13.11.12) in vitro.     

Lack of evidence for involvement of known human retroviruses in multiple sclerosis

The recent report by Koprowski et al. that human T-cell lymphotropic retroviruses (HTLVs) may be involved in the development of multiple sclerosis (MS) has aroused much interest. The report was based largely on immunological evidence, using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) with viral antigens or disrupted virions. We have accordingly sought confirmation by screening sera and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples from MS patients against cell lines infected respectively with adult T-cell leukaemia (ATL) virus (ATLV/HTLV-I) of Japanese cells (MT-1 and MT-2 lines), our own isolate from British black patients with ATL, the MoT cell line which produce HTLV-II, and our own T-cell line containing a local isolate of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) virus (C-LAV/HTLV-III). We have failed to find antibodies against these retroviruses in the sera or CSF. Furthermore, neither virus could be isolated from the peripheral white blood cells of two MS patients.     

A multichannel neural signal detecting module:Its design and test in animal experiments

A four-channel neural signal detecting module with an implantable 12-contact cuff electrode was designed for real-time neural signal recording on peripheral and central nerves. The mathematic coupling model between nerve and electronic system was analyzed. Electrode connection configurations were considered. The detecting circuit included an input coupling network, a pre-amplifier, and some filtering and notching stages. Shield guarding and the right-leg-driven circuit were developed for further elimination of common mode interference. By electrode switches, the module could cooperate with a nerve functional electrical stimulation circuit, building a neural channel bridge-connection system. It was tested by recording experiments on rat’s sciatic and spine nerves. The signals in spontaneous and evoked conditions have been captured successfully. In addition, an implantable neural signal detecting CMOS IC has been introduced.     

An association between actin and the major histocompatibility antigen H-2

P815 cells spontaneously shed material (exfoliate) in which actin is the major protein. The exfoliate also contains H-2. The association between actin and H-2 is stable even in the presence of detergent, indicating that protein-protein interactions exist between the actin and H-2. The exfoliate probably consists of highly purified microvilli.