Conditional distribution analyses of probabilistic forecasts

Probabilistic forecasts have good ‘external correspondence’ if events that are assigned probabilities close to 1 tend to occur frequently, whereas those assigned probabilities near 0 tend to occur rarely. This paper describes simple procedures for analysing external correspondence into meaningful components that might guide efforts to understand and improve forecasting performance. The procedures focus on differences between the judgements made by the forecaster when the target event occurs, as compared to when it does not. The illustrations involve a professional oddsmaker's predictions of baseball game outcomes, meteorologists' precipitation forecasts and physicians' diagnoses of pneumonia. The illustrations demonstrate the ability of the procedures to highlight important forecasting tendencies that are sometimes more difficult to discern by other means.     

Quantum states of neutrons in the Earth's gravitational field.

The discrete quantum properties of matter are manifest in a variety of phenomena. Any particle that is trapped in a sufficiently deep and wide potential well is settled in quantum bound states. For example, the existence of quantum states of electrons in an electromagnetic field is responsible for the structure of atoms, and quantum states of nucleons in a strong nuclear field give rise to the structure of atomic nuclei. In an analogous way, the gravitational field should lead to the formation of quantum states. But the gravitational force is extremely weak compared to the electromagnetic and nuclear force, so the observation of quantum states of matter in a gravitational field is extremely challenging. Because of their charge neutrality and long lifetime, neutrons are promising candidates with which to observe such an effect. Here we report experimental evidence for gravitational quantum bound states of neutrons. The particles are allowed to fall towards a horizontal mirror which, together with the Earth's gravitational field, provides the necessary confining potential well. Under such conditions, the falling neutrons do not move continuously along the vertical direction, but rather jump from one height to another, as predicted by quantum theory.     

Regulation of fast inactivation of cloned mammalian IK(A) channels by cysteine oxidation

Modulation of neuronal excitability by regulation of K+ channels potentially plays a part in short-term memory but has not yet been studied at the molecular level. Regulation of K+ channels by protein phosphorylation and oxygen has been described for various tissues and cell types; regulation of fast-inactivating K+ channels mediating IK(A) currents has not yet been described. Functional expression of cloned mammalian K+ channels has provided a tool for studying their regulation at the molecular level. We report here that fast-inactivating K+ currents mediated by cloned K+ channel subunits derived from mammalian brain expressed in Xenopus oocytes are regulated by the reducing agent glutathione. This type of regulation may have a role in vivo to link metabolism to excitability and to regulate excitability in specific membrane areas of mammalian neurons.     

Demethylation of CpG islands in embryonic cells

DNA in differentiated somatic cells has a fixed pattern of methylation, which is faithfully copied after replication. By contrast, the methylation patterns of many tissue-specific and some housekeeping genes are altered during normal development. This modification of DNA methylation in the embryo has also been observed in transgenic mice and in transfection experiments. Here we report the fate in mice of an in vitro-methylated adenine phosphoribosyltransferase transgene. The entire 5' CpG island region became demethylated, whereas the 3' end of the gene remained modified and was even methylated de novo at additional sites. Transfection experiments in vitro show that the demethylation is rapid, is specific for embryonic cell-types and affects a variety of different CpG island sequences. This suggests that gene sequences can be recognized in the early embryo and imprinted with the correct methylation pattern through a combination of demethylation and de novo methylation.     

Maximum sum-of-splits clustering

ConsiderN entities to be classified, and a matrix of dissimilarities between pairs of them. The split of a cluster is the smallest dissimilarity between an entity of this cluster and an entity outside it. The single-linkage algorithm provides partitions intoM clusters for which the smallest split is maximum. We study here the average split of the clusters or, equivalently, the sum of splits. A (N ²) algorithm is provided to determine maximum sum-of-splits partitions intoM clusters for allM betweenN – 1 and 2, using the dual graph of the single-linkage dendrogram.

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Résumé SoientN objets à classifier et une matrice de dissimilarit és entre paires de ces objets. L'écart d'une classe est la plus petite dissimilarité entre un objet de cette classe et un objet en dehors d'elle. L'algorithme du lien simple fournit des partitions enM classes dont le plus petit écart est maximum. On étudie l'écart moyen des classes, ou, ce qui est équivalent, la somme des écarts. On propose un algorithme en (N ²) pour déterminer des partitions enM classes dont la somme des écarts est maximum pourM allant deN – 1 à 2, basé sur le graphe dual du dendrogramme de la méthode du lien simple.

     

Capture of hydroxymethylene and its fast disappearance through tunnelling

Singlet carbenes exhibit a divalent carbon atom whose valence shell contains only six electrons, four involved in bonding to two other atoms and the remaining two forming a non-bonding electron pair. These features render singlet carbenes so reactive that they were long considered too short-lived for isolation and direct characterization. This view changed when it was found that attaching the divalent carbon atom to substituents that are bulky and/or able to donate electrons produces carbenes that can be isolated and stored. N-heterocyclic carbenes are such compounds now in wide use, for example as ligands in metathesis catalysis. In contrast, oxygen-donor-substituted carbenes are inherently less stable and have been less studied. The pre-eminent case is hydroxymethylene, H-C-OH; although it is the key intermediate in the high-energy chemistry of its tautomer formaldehyde, has been implicated since 1921 in the photocatalytic formation of carbohydrates, and is the parent of alkoxycarbenes that lie at the heart of transition-metal carbene chemistry, all attempts to observe this species or other alkoxycarbenes have failed. However, theoretical considerations indicate that hydroxymethylene should be isolatable. Here we report the synthesis of hydroxymethylene and its capture by matrix isolation. We unexpectedly find that H-C-OH rearranges to formaldehyde with a half-life of only 2 h at 11 K by pure hydrogen tunnelling through a large energy barrier in excess of 30 kcal mol(-1).     

Identification of cells initiating human melanomas

Tumour-initiating cells capable of self-renewal and differentiation, which are responsible for tumour growth, have been identified in human haematological malignancies and solid cancers. If such minority populations are associated with tumour progression in human patients, specific targeting of tumour-initiating cells could be a strategy to eradicate cancers currently resistant to systemic therapy. Here we identify a subpopulation enriched for human malignant-melanoma-initiating cells (MMIC) defined by expression of the chemoresistance mediator ABCB5 (refs 7, 8) and show that specific targeting of this tumorigenic minority population inhibits tumour growth. ABCB5+ tumour cells detected in human melanoma patients show a primitive molecular phenotype and correlate with clinical melanoma progression. In serial human-to-mouse xenotransplantation experiments, ABCB5+ melanoma cells possess greater tumorigenic capacity than ABCB5- bulk populations and re-establish clinical tumour heterogeneity. In vivo genetic lineage tracking demonstrates a specific capacity of ABCB5+ subpopulations for self-renewal and differentiation, because ABCB5+ cancer cells generate both ABCB5+ and ABCB5- progeny, whereas ABCB5- tumour populations give rise, at lower rates, exclusively to ABCB5- cells. In an initial proof-of-principle analysis, designed to test the hypothesis that MMIC are also required for growth of established tumours, systemic administration of a monoclonal antibody directed at ABCB5, shown to be capable of inducing antibody-dependent cell-mediated cytotoxicity in ABCB5+ MMIC, exerted tumour-inhibitory effects. Identification of tumour-initiating cells with enhanced abundance in more advanced disease but susceptibility to specific targeting through a defining chemoresistance determinant has important implications for cancer therapy.     

Dendritic cell PAR1-S1P3 signalling couples coagulation and inflammation

Defining critical points of modulation across heterogeneous clinical syndromes may provide insight into new therapeutic approaches. Coagulation initiated by the cytokine-receptor family member known as tissue factor is a hallmark of systemic inflammatory response syndromes in bacterial sepsis and viral haemorrhagic fevers, and anticoagulants can be effective in severe sepsis with disseminated intravascular coagulation. The precise mechanism coupling coagulation and inflammation remains unresolved. Here we show that protease-activated receptor 1 (PAR1) signalling sustains a lethal inflammatory response that can be interrupted by inhibition of either thrombin or PAR1 signalling. The sphingosine 1-phosphate (S1P) axis is a downstream component of PAR1 signalling, and by combining chemical and genetic probes for S1P receptor 3 (S1P3) we show a critical role for dendritic cell PAR1-S1P3 cross-talk in regulating amplification of inflammation in sepsis syndrome. Conversely, dendritic cells sustain escalated systemic coagulation and are the primary hub at which coagulation and inflammation intersect within the lymphatic compartment. Loss of dendritic cell PAR1-S1P3 signalling sequesters dendritic cells and inflammation into draining lymph nodes, and attenuates dissemination of interleukin-1beta to the lungs. Thus, activation of dendritic cells by coagulation in the lymphatics emerges as a previously unknown mechanism that promotes systemic inflammation and lethality in decompensated innate immune responses.