The Instrument That Never Was: Inventing,Manufacturing, and Branding Réaumur's Thermometer During the Enlightenment

At the beginning of the 1730s René Antoine Ferchault de Réaumur published two long memoirs on a new type of thermometer equipped with a specially calibrated scale — known ever since as the Réaumur scale. It became one of the most common ‘standardized’ thermometers in Europe until the late nineteenth century. What made this thermometer so successful? What was it specifically? I will first argue that the real Réaumur thermometer as an instrument was a fiction, a ghost — an idealized instrument. On paper, it was theoretically flawless. In reality, the standardized Réaumur thermometer was most likely never achieved. This article shows that its success was essentially due to a recontextualisation from theoretical natural philosophy — Réaumur's principle of uniformity — to: 1) the context of artisanal knowledge and practices and 2) the context of making and reporting in the Mémoires de l'Académie royale des sciences actual measurements done in the field (in Paris at the Observatory, in Provincial France, in the Colonies, and in the rest of Europe). Réaumur's thermometer was essentially a theoretical method to which was associated a particular scale. It was the instrument's reification for market consumption and fieldwork that gave this specific type of thermometer materiality and authority. Although most Réaumur thermometers ever made were strikingly different from one another, over time the thermomètre de Réaumur designation became a brand, a seal of approval born from customary artisanal practices and cultural habitudes.     

Testing Interval Forecasts: A GMM‐Based Approach

This paper proposes a new evaluation framework for interval forecasts. Our model‐free test can be used to evaluate interval forecasts and high‐density regions, potentially discontinuous and/or asymmetric. Using a simple J‐statistic, based on the moments defined by the orthonormal polynomials associated with the binomial distribution, this new approach presents many advantages. First, its implementation is extremely easy. Second, it allows for a separate test for unconditional coverage, independence and conditional coverage hypotheses. Third, Monte Carlo simulations show that for realistic sample sizes our GMM test has good small‐sample properties. These results are corroborated by an empirical application on SP500 and Nikkei stock market indexes. It confirms that using this GMM test leads to major consequences for the ex post evaluation of interval forecasts produced by linear versus nonlinear models. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Extensive characterization of sphere models established from colorectal cancer cell lines

Links between cancer and stem cells have been proposed for many years. As the cancer stem cell (CSC) theory became widely studied, new methods were developed to culture and expand cancer cells with conserved determinants of “stemness”. These cells show increased ability to grow in suspension as spheres in serum-free medium supplemented with growth factors and chemicals. The physiological relevance of this phenomenon in established cancer cell lines remains unclear. Cell lines have traditionally been used to explore tumor biology and serve as preclinical models for the screening of potential therapeutic agents. Here, we grew cell-forming spheres (CFS) from 25 established colorectal cancer cell lines. The molecular and cellular characteristics of CFS were compared to the bulk of tumor cells. CFS could be isolated from 72 % of the cell lines. Both CFS and their parental CRC cell lines were highly tumorigenic. Compared to their parental cells, they showed similar expression of putative CSC markers. The ability of CRC cells to grow as CFS was greatly enhanced by prior treatment with 5-fluorouracil. At the molecular level, CFS and parental CRC cells showed identical gene mutations and very similar genomic profiles, although microarray analysis revealed changes in CFS gene expression that were independent of DNA copy-number. We identified a CFS gene expression signature common to CFS from all CRC cell lines, which was predictive of disease relapse in CRC patients. In conclusion, CFS models derived from CRC cell lines possess interesting phenotypic features that may have clinical relevance for drug resistance and disease relapse.     

Hybrid Forecasting with Estimated Temporally Aggregated Linear Processes

We introduce a new strategy for the prediction of linear temporal aggregates; we call it ‘hybrid’ and study its performance using asymptotic theory. This scheme consists of carrying out model parameter estimation with data sampled at the highest available frequency and the subsequent prediction with data and models aggregated according to the forecasting horizon of interest. We develop explicit expressions that approximately quantify the mean square forecasting errors associated with the different prediction schemes and that take into account the estimation error component. These approximate estimates indicate that the hybrid forecasting scheme tends to outperform the so‐called ‘all‐aggregated’ approach and, in some instances, the ‘all‐disaggregated’ strategy that is known to be optimal when model selection and estimation errors are neglected. Unlike other related approximate formulas existing in the literature, those proposed in this paper are totally explicit and require neither assumptions on the second‐order stationarity of the sample nor Monte Carlo simulations for their evaluation. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mutations in the PCNA-binding domain of CDKN1C cause IMAGe syndrome

IMAGe syndrome (intrauterine growth restriction, metaphyseal dysplasia, adrenal hypoplasia congenita and genital anomalies) is an undergrowth developmental disorder with life-threatening consequences. An identity-by-descent analysis in a family with IMAGe syndrome identified a 17.2-Mb locus on chromosome 11p15 that segregated in the affected family members. Targeted exon array capture of the disease locus, followed by high-throughput genomic sequencing and validation by dideoxy sequencing, identified missense mutations in the imprinted gene CDKN1C (also known as P57KIP2) in two familial and four unrelated patients. A familial analysis showed an imprinted mode of inheritance in which only maternal transmission of the mutation resulted in IMAGe syndrome. CDKN1C inhibits cell-cycle progression, and we found that targeted expression of IMAGe-associated CDKN1C mutations in Drosophila caused severe eye growth defects compared to wild-type CDKN1C, suggesting a gain-of-function mechanism. All IMAGe-associated mutations clustered in the PCNA-binding domain of CDKN1C and resulted in loss of PCNA binding, distinguishing them from the mutations of CDKN1C that cause Beckwith-Wiedemann syndrome, an overgrowth syndrome.     

Fast and accurate genotype imputation in genome-wide association studies through pre-phasing

The 1000 Genomes Project and disease-specific sequencing efforts are producing large collections of haplotypes that can be used as reference panels for genotype imputation in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). However, imputing from large reference panels with existing methods imposes a high computational burden. We introduce a strategy called 'pre-phasing' that maintains the accuracy of leading methods while reducing computational costs. We first statistically estimate the haplotypes for each individual within the GWAS sample (pre-phasing) and then impute missing genotypes into these estimated haplotypes. This reduces the computational cost because (i) the GWAS samples must be phased only once, whereas standard methods would implicitly repeat phasing with each reference panel update, and (ii) it is much faster to match a phased GWAS haplotype to one reference haplotype than to match two unphased GWAS genotypes to a pair of reference haplotypes. We implemented our approach in the MaCH and IMPUTE2 frameworks, and we tested it on data sets from the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium 2 (WTCCC2), the Genetic Association Information Network (GAIN), the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) and the 1000 Genomes Project. This strategy will be particularly valuable for repeated imputation as reference panels evolve.     

Price–Dividend Ratios and Stock Price Predictability

A long‐standing puzzle to financial economists is the difficulty of outperforming the benchmark random walk model in out‐of‐sample contests. Using data from the USA over the period of 1872–2007, this paper re‐examines the out‐of‐sample predictability of real stock prices based on price–dividend (PD) ratios. The current research focuses on the significance of the time‐varying mean and nonlinear dynamics of PD ratios in the empirical analysis. Empirical results support the proposed nonlinear model of the PD ratio and the stationarity of the trend‐adjusted PD ratio. Furthermore, this paper rejects the non‐predictability hypothesis of stock prices statistically based on in‐ and out‐of‐sample tests and economically based on the criteria of expected real return per unit of risk. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exploring Survey‐Based Inflation Forecasts

This paper first shows that survey‐based expectations (SBE) outperform standard time series models in US quarterly inflation out‐of‐sample prediction and that the term structure of survey‐based inflation forecasts has predictive power over the path of future inflation changes. It then proposes some empirical explanations for the forecasting success of survey‐based inflation expectations. We show that SBE pool a large amount of heterogeneous information on inflation expectations and react more flexibly and accurately to macro conditions both contemporaneously and dynamically. We illustrate the flexibility of SBE forecasts in the context of the 2008 financial crisis. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.