Forecasting the European Credit Cycle Using Macroeconomic Variables

We question the ability of macroeconomic data to predict risk appetite and ‘flight‐to‐quality’ periods in the European credit market using a model inspired by the Markov switching literature. This model allows for a direct mapping of exogenous variables into state probabilities. We find that various surveys and transformed hard data have a forecasting power. We show that despite its depth, the 2008–2009 crisis should not be regarded as an unusual episode that would have to be modelled by an additional state. Finally, we show that our model outperforms a pure Markov switching model in terms of forecasting accuracy, thus clearly indicating that economic figures are helpful in forecasting the credit cycle. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Disrupted function and axonal distribution of mutant tyrosyl-tRNA synthetase in dominant intermediate Charcot-Marie-Tooth neuropathy

Charcot-Marie-Tooth (CMT) neuropathies are common disorders of the peripheral nervous system caused by demyelination or axonal degeneration, or a combination of both features. We previously assigned the locus for autosomal dominant intermediate CMT neuropathy type C (DI-CMTC) to chromosome 1p34-p35. Here we identify two heterozygous missense mutations (G41R and E196K) and one de novo deletion (153-156delVKQV) in tyrosyl-tRNA synthetase (YARS) in three unrelated families affected with DI-CMTC. Biochemical experiments and genetic complementation in yeast show partial loss of aminoacylation activity of the mutant proteins, and mutations in YARS, or in its yeast ortholog TYS1, reduce yeast growth. YARS localizes to axonal termini in differentiating primary motor neuron and neuroblastoma cultures. This specific distribution is significantly reduced in cells expressing mutant YARS proteins. YARS is the second aminoacyl-tRNA synthetase found to be involved in CMT, thereby linking protein-synthesizing complexes with neurodegeneration.     

A mutation creating a potential illegitimate microRNA target site in the myostatin gene affects muscularity in sheep

Texel sheep are renowned for their exceptional meatiness. To identify the genes underlying this economically important feature, we performed a whole-genome scan in a Romanov x Texel F2 population. We mapped a quantitative trait locus with a major effect on muscle mass to chromosome 2 and subsequently fine-mapped it to a chromosome interval encompassing the myostatin (GDF8) gene. We herein demonstrate that the GDF8 allele of Texel sheep is characterized by a G to A transition in the 3' UTR that creates a target site for mir1 and mir206, microRNAs (miRNAs) that are highly expressed in skeletal muscle. This causes translational inhibition of the myostatin gene and hence contributes to the muscular hypertrophy of Texel sheep. Analysis of SNP databases for humans and mice demonstrates that mutations creating or destroying putative miRNA target sites are abundant and might be important effectors of phenotypic variation.     

Meta-analyses identify 13 loci associated with age at menopause and highlight DNA repair and immune pathways

To newly identify loci for age at natural menopause, we carried out a meta-analysis of 22 genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in 38,968 women of European descent, with replication in up to 14,435 women. In addition to four known loci, we identified 13 loci newly associated with age at natural menopause (at P < 5 × 10(-8)). Candidate genes located at these newly associated loci include genes implicated in DNA repair (EXO1, HELQ, UIMC1, FAM175A, FANCI, TLK1, POLG and PRIM1) and immune function (IL11, NLRP11 and PRRC2A (also known as BAT2)). Gene-set enrichment pathway analyses using the full GWAS data set identified exoDNase, NF-κB signaling and mitochondrial dysfunction as biological processes related to timing of menopause.     

Regulation of intracellular calcium by a signalling complex of IRAG, IP3 receptor and cGMP kinase Ibeta

Calcium release from the endoplasmic reticulum controls a number of cellular processes, including proliferation and contraction of smooth muscle and other cells. Calcium release from inositol 1,4,5-trisphosphate (IP3)-sensitive stores is negatively regulated by binding of calmodulin to the IP3 receptor (IP3R) and the NO/cGMP/cGMP kinase I (cGKI) signalling pathway. Activation of cGKI decreases IP3-stimulated elevations in intracellular calcium, induces smooth muscle relaxation and contributes to the antiproliferative and pro-apoptotic effects of NO/cGMP. Here we show that, in microsomal smooth muscle membranes, cGKIbeta phosphorylated the IP3R and cGKIbeta, and a protein of relative molecular mass 125,000 which we now identify as the IP3R-associated cGMP kinase substrate (IRAG). These proteins were co-immunoprecipitated by antibodies directed against cGKI, IP3R or IRAG. IRAG was found in many tissues including aorta, trachea and uterus, and was localized perinuclearly after heterologous expression in COS-7 cells. Bradykinin-stimulated calcium release was not affected by the expression of either IRAG or cGKIbeta, which we tested in the absence and presence of cGMP. However, calcium release was inhibited after co-expression of IRAG and cGKIbeta in the presence of cGMP. These results identify IRAG as an essential NO/cGKI-dependent regulator of IP3-induced calcium release.     

Untersuchungen an Ionenaustauschmodellen zum Verständnis der Physiologie biogener Amine. Austauschgleichgewichte zwischen Natrium und Aminen an schwefelsäure-und karboxylgruppen-tragenden Ionenaustauschern

Summary The influence of an inorganic cation (sodium) was studied upon the distribution of physiologically or pharmacologically important amines on two different acid ion exchangers. When cation and amine are added in equivalent amounts to an exchange system of corresponding capacity, the distribution pattern of the amine shows differences which are characteristic of the active groups (SO₃H, COOH) of the relevant exchanger. Such reactions are thought to be of importance in biological activities of polyelectrolytes.     

Increased thermohaline stratification as a possible cause for an ocean anoxic event in the Cretaceous period

Ocean anoxic events were periods of high carbon burial that led to drawdown of atmospheric carbon dioxide, lowering of bottom-water oxygen concentrations and, in many cases, significant biological extinction. Most ocean anoxic events are thought to be caused by high productivity and export of carbon from surface waters which is then preserved in organic-rich sediments, known as black shales. But the factors that triggered some of these events remain uncertain. Here we present stable isotope data from a mid-Cretaceous ocean anoxic event that occurred 112 Myr ago, and that point to increased thermohaline stratification as the probable cause. Ocean anoxic event 1b is associated with an increase in surface-water temperatures and runoff that led to decreased bottom-water formation and elevated carbon burial in the restricted basins of the western Tethys and North Atlantic. This event is in many ways similar to that which led to the more recent Plio-Pleistocene Mediterranean sapropels, but the greater geographical extent and longer duration (approximately 46 kyr) of ocean anoxic event 1b suggest that processes leading to such ocean anoxic events in the North Atlantic and western Tethys were able to act over a much larger region, and sequester far more carbon, than any of the Quaternary sapropels.