Chemical basis of pupal cannibalism in a caterpillar (Utetheisa ornatrix).

The moth Utetheisa ornatrix derives protection against predation from systemic pyrrolizidine alkaloids (PAs) that it sequesters as a larva from its foodplants (Leguminosae, Crotalaria spp.). We here show, in laboratory tests, that Utetheisa deficient in body PA can make up for the chemical shortfall by cannibalizing pupae. We present evidence indicating that cannibalism in larvae is elicited not by hunger, but possibly by PA deficiency itself, and that in making cannibalistic choices larvae prefer PA-containing over PA-free pupae. PAs themselves, either in crystalline form or as additives to food items, proved phagostimulatory to larvae. In nature Utetheisa tend to pupate away from their foodplant, essentially out of reach of larval attack. The threat of cannibalism may have contributed to the evolution of this pupation behavior.     

On the limitations of comparing mean square forecast errors

Linear models are invariant under non-singular, scale-preserving linear transformations, whereas mean square forecast errors (MSFEs) are not. Different rankings may result across models or methods from choosing alternative yet isomorphic representations of a process. One approach can dominate others for comparisons in levels, yet lose to another for differences, to a second for cointegrating vectors and to a third for combinations of variables. The potential for switches in ranking is related to criticisms of the inadequacy of MSFE against encompassing criteria, which are invariant under linear transforms and entail MSFE dominance. An invariant evaluation criterion which avoids misleading outcomes is examined in a Monte Carlo study of forecasting methods.     

The humoral immune response to heat shock proteins.

Humoral immune reactions to heat shock proteins (hsp) from microorganisms are one aspect of microbial infections in humans. The production of antibodies which are specific to epitopes present on procaryotic hsp leads also to the appearance of cross-reactive serum antibodies in the host organism that react with human hsp. This article discusses the consequences of such autoreactive antibodies for the host in context with the development of immune tolerance and autoimmune diseases, especially rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and in experimental animal models for arthritis such as adjuvant arthritis in rats. On the basis of epitope cross-reactivity between hsp and other host proteins, a hypothesis is presented for the development of autoimmune disease following the production of hsp-specific antibodies.     

Choroidal and iris angioarchitecture of the newt: A scanning electron-microscopic study of vascular corrosion casts

The corrosion cast technique provided for the first time an excellent three-dimensional visualization of the vascular pattern of the choroid and iris in the newt eye. The results show the presence of a single arterial afference to the choroidal and iris capillaries: the ophthalmic artery is the origin fo both ciliary arteries and the long posterior ciliary artery. Slightly behind the equatorial circumference of the eyeball the venous drainage consists of a single vessel on the dorsal side and two distinct vessels on the ventral one. It receives blood from both iris and choroid. The surface of the plastic endocasts shows some details of fine luminal structures of the endothelial cells. Shallow depressions may be regarded as imprints of endothelial cell nuclei, and they are distinctly different for arteries and capillaries. The angioarchitecture of the newt eye differs from that of brain in that hairpin-shaped capillary loops are not observed at all.     

对河南农村劳动力向小城镇转移趋势的调查研究

“人口城镇化”是社会发展的必然趋势。本文从河南沁阳等九个“小城镇”的实际调查材料出发,较详细地讨论了农村劳动力向小城镇转移的流量,形成、就业层次和社会影响,说明中国的“人口城镇化”方向关键在于积极发展小城镇。     

Which survey indicators are useful for monitoring consumption? Evidence from European countries

This paper assesses the information content of two survey indicators for consumption developments in the near future for eight European countries in the period 1985–1998. Empirical work on this topic typically focuses on consumer confidence, the perceptions of buyers of consumption goods. This paper examines whether perceptions of sellers of consumption goods, measured by retail trade surveys, may also improve short‐term monitoring of consumption. We find that both consumer confidence and retailer confidence embody valuable information, when analysed in isolation. For France, Italy and Spain we conclude that adding retail confidence does not improve the indicator model once consumer confidence has been included. For the UK the reverse case is obtained. For the remaining four countries we show that combining consumer sentiment and retail trade confidence into a composite indicator leads to optimal results. Our results suggest that incorporating information from retail trade surveys may offer significant benefits for the analysis of short‐term prospects of consumption. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of volatile anesthetics on the circular dichroism of bilirubin bound to human serum albumin

The characteristic circular dichroism of bilirubin bound to human serum albumin undergoes a remarkable sign inversion on addition of halothane, chloroform and other volatile anesthetics. This sign inversion, which is completely reversed by removal of the anesthetic, reflects a pronounced conformational change of the bound ligand; probably a complete inversion of chirality. The observation suggests that association of volatile anesthetics with proteins can markedly alter the internal topography of receptor sites and potentially influence the stereoselectivity of ligand binding.     

Estimation and testing of time-varying coefficient regression models in the presence of linear restrictions

A linear regression model with random walk coefficients is extended to allow for linear restrictions between the coefficients to be satisfied at each point in time. Estimation in this model is shown to be no more involved than estimation in the standard model. It is also demonstrated how, after a slight modification to the testing problem, classical test procedures may be applied to the problem of testing for such restrictions. The performance of the Lagrange Multiplier test for a variety of different restrictions is then investigated via simulation. An empirical application involving testing for homogeneity in a random walk coefficient version of the AIDS model is given.