易中天《品三国》补正

易中天教授在《品三国》中，把历史唯物主义具体化，提出了评论历史人物和历史事件的三项准则，即：“还原”、“比较”、“分析”。易教授在贯彻这三项原则时也难免有疏漏之处：一、把襄阳、赤壁之战说成曹刘之战不能成立；二、曹操一封信促成孙刘联盟的提法不妥；三、《白衣渡江》引用了《吕蒙传》上有两条错误的史料。     

Structural Changes of Water Molecules Upon the Reduction of Quinones in The Reaction Center from Rhodobactery Sphaeroides

1 Results The photosynthetic bacterial reaction center (RC) is a membrane protein complex.The RC is composed of three protein subunits and redox components such as bacteriochlorophylls, bacteriopheophytins,and quinones.The RC performs the photochemical electron transfer from the bacteriochlorophyll dimer through a series of electron donor and acceptor molecules to a secondary quinone,QB.QB accepts electrons from a primary quinone,QA,in two sequential electron transfer reactions.The second electron trans...     

Forecasting volatility by means of threshold models

The aim of this paper is to compare the forecasting performance of competing threshold models, in order to capture the asymmetric effect in the volatility. We focus on examining the relative out‐of‐sample forecasting ability of the SETAR‐Threshold GARCH (SETAR‐TGARCH) and the SETAR‐Threshold Stochastic Volatility (SETAR‐THSV) models compared to the GARCH model and Stochastic Volatility (SV) model. However, the main problem in evaluating the predictive ability of volatility models is that the ‘true’ underlying volatility process is not observable and thus a proxy must be defined for the unobservable volatility. For the class of nonlinear state space models (SETAR‐THSV and SV), a modified version of the SIR algorithm has been used to estimate the unknown parameters. The forecasting performance of competing models has been compared for two return time series: IBEX 35 and S&P 500. We explore whether the increase in the complexity of the model implies that its forecasting ability improves. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.