Forecasting trend output in the Euro area

This paper is an applied study about forecasting trend output and the output gap in the Euro area. The need for trend output forecasts is justified by an analysis of the monetary strategy of the European Central Bank. Trend output serves as a direct inflation indicator and helps to determine the reference value for money. For both purposes, trend output has to be forecasted. A permanent–transitory decomposition based on cointegration restrictions gives an estimate of trend output in the Euro area. Ex‐ante point forecasts of trend output are computed and bootstrap simulation is employed to construct prediction intervals that take estimation uncertainty into consideration. The uncertainty of trend output and the output gap is quite large and raises questions about their usefulness as indicators for monetary policy. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A calcium sensor in the sodium channel modulates cardiac excitability.

Sodium channels are principal molecular determinants responsible for myocardial conduction and maintenance of the cardiac rhythm. Calcium ions (Ca2+) have a fundamental role in the coupling of cardiac myocyte excitation and contraction, yet mechanisms whereby intracellular Ca2+ may directly modulate Na channel function have yet to be identified. Here we show that calmodulin (CaM), a ubiquitous Ca2+-sensing protein, binds to the carboxy-terminal 'IQ' domain of the human cardiac Na channel (hH1) in a Ca2+-dependent manner. This binding interaction significantly enhances slow inactivation-a channel-gating process linked to life-threatening idiopathic ventricular arrhythmias. Mutations targeted to the IQ domain disrupted CaM binding and eliminated Ca2+/CaM-dependent slow inactivation, whereas the gating effects of Ca2+/CaM were restored by intracellular application of a peptide modelled after the IQ domain. A naturally occurring mutation (A1924T) in the IQ domain altered hH1 function in a manner characteristic of the Brugada arrhythmia syndrome, but at the same time inhibited slow inactivation induced by Ca2+/CaM, yielding a clinically benign (arrhythmia free) phenotype.     

Microbial degradation of bitumen

Summary A blown bitumen Mexphalte R 90/40 with a high content of saturated hydrocarbons was degraded by several microorganisms to the same extent. In batch cultures ofSaccharomycopsis lipolytica, maximal biodegradation was estimated to be about 9% w/w, 3.2·10^–3 g/cm² and 3.1·10^–3 cm of degraded bitumen. The Mexphalte R 90/40 degradation rate was closely coupled to biofilm formation. The microbial activity concerned predominantly the oxidation of saturated hydrocarbons. A direct distillation bitumen 80/100 with a low content of saturated hydrocarbons and a high content of aromatic hydrocarbons and resins was more resistant to biodegradation.     

用测量模态阻尼和振型的方法对复合材料薄平板进行无损质量检测

复合材料薄平板经热压制成后,都需要进行质量检测。本文探索用测量模态阻尼和振型的方法,对复合材料薄平板的制作质量进行无损检测,作为对其它昂贵的无损检测方法的补充。略述用振动方法进行无损检测的原理,测量薄平板阻尼的方法以及提高测量精度的措施。还讨论在测量薄平板阻尼时可能遇到的一些特殊问题(如非线性刚度、拍、模态密集等问题);以云母基复合材料薄平板作为例子,从测量其阻尼和振型的结果,对这种板的制作质量进行讨论。     

Fibulin-5/DANCE is essential for elastogenesis in vivo.

The elastic fibre system has a principal role in the structure and function of various types of organs that require elasticity, such as large arteries, lung and skin. Although elastic fibres are known to be composed of microfibril proteins (for example, fibrillins and latent transforming growth factor (TGF)-beta-binding proteins) and polymerized elastin, the mechanism of their assembly and development is not well understood. Here we report that fibulin-5 (also known as DANCE), a recently discovered integrin ligand, is an essential determinant of elastic fibre organization. fibulin-5-/- mice generated by gene targeting exhibit a severely disorganized elastic fibre system throughout the body. fibulin-5-/- mice survive to adulthood, but have a tortuous aorta with loss of compliance, severe emphysema, and loose skin (cutis laxa). These tissues contain fragmented elastin without an increase of elastase activity, indicating defective development of elastic fibres. Fibulin-5 interacts directly with elastic fibres in vitro, and serves as a ligand for cell surface integrins alphavbeta3, alphavbeta5 and alpha9beta1 through its amino-terminal domain. Thus, fibulin-5 may provide anchorage of elastic fibres to cells, thereby acting to stabilize and organize elastic fibres in the skin, lung and vasculature.     

Ruin Probability with Variable Premium Rate and Disturbed by Diffusion in a Markovian Environment

We consider a risk model with a premium rate which varies with the level of free reserves. In this model, the occurrence of claims is described by a Cox process with Markov intensity process, and the influence of stochastic factors is considered by adding a diffusion process. The integro-differential equation for the ruin probability is derived by a infinitesimal method.     

MeV Pb离子在非晶Si中的射程离散──离子束混合和增强扩散的影响

１．０ＭｅＶ２０８Ｐｂ离子在非晶Ｓｉ中的投影射程ＲＰ和射程偏差ΔＲＰ作为注量和温度二者的函数用背散射法进行测定．注量的变化范围为５×１０１３～７×１０１４ｃｍ－２．注入是在室温和ｔ＝－１２０℃下完成的．由由实验所确定的投影射程，射程偏差与注量或温度无关，并且分别等于２９５和７２．２ｎｍ．与ＴＲＩＭ８６的计算结果相比较，发现ＲＰ的偏离为１８％，而ΔＲＰ的偏离为３６％．ＲＰ和ΔＲＰ二者与注量及温度的无关性，排除了所观察到的与ＴＲＩＭ的矛盾是由于注入期间辐射增强扩散或离子束混合效应而引起的解释。     

STABILITY CRITERIA FOR A CLASS OF UNCERTAINSYSTEMS WITH TIME—DELAY

Some stability criteria are obtained for a class of uncertain systems with time-delay usingLyapunov functional and analytic techniques. It is easy to check the criteria by making use of theboundedness of the uncertainties.     

Technical Notes ：STUDIES ON THE VALUE OF SECONDARY MARKET TO THE SUPPLY CHAIN

This paper investigates the impact of a secondary market, where retailers can buy and sell excessinventories, on the supply chain. We develop a two-period model with a single manufacturer and tworetailers. At the beginning of the first period the retailers order and receive products from themanufacturer, but at the beginning of the second period, they can trade surplus products betweenthemselves in the secondary market. We investigate the impact of the correlated dependence ofretailers' demand on both the quantity effect and the allocation effect under the secondary market.Lastly,we study potential strategies for the manufacturer to increase sales with the existence of thesecondary market.     

Non-Minimum Phase Nonlinear System Predictive Control Based on Local Recurrent Neural Networks

Abstract: After a recursive multi-step-ahead predictor for nonlinear systems based on local recurrent neural networks isintroduced, an intelligent PID controller is adopted to correct the errors including identified model errors and accumulatederrors produced in the recursive process. Characterized by predictive control, this method can achieve a good controlaccuracy and has good robustness. A simulation study shows that this control algorithm is very effective.