A new twist to the No Miracles Argument for the success of science

J. D. Trout has recently developed a new defense of scientific realism, a new version of the No Miracles Argument. I critically evaluate Trout's novel defense of realism. I argue that Trout's argument for scientific realism and the related explanation for the success of science are self-defeating. In the process of arguing against the traditional realist strategies for explaining the success of science, he inadvertently undermines his own argument.     

Re-situating fieldwork and re-narrating disciplinary history in global mega-geomorphology

In 1985, more than thirty geomorphologists, planetary scientists, and remote sensing specialists gathered at a conference center in Oracle, Arizona, to discuss an emerging area of research that they called “mega-geomorphology.” Building on a conference of the same name held in London in 1981, they argued that new techniques of remote sensing and insights emerging from the study of extraterrestrial planets had created opportunities for geomorphology to broaden its spatial and temporal scope. This new approach was, however, neither unproblematic nor uncontested. In the discussions around mega-geomorphology that took place in the mid-1980s, the perceived conflict between the use of remote-sensing techniques to observe phenomena on vast spatial scales, on one hand, and the disciplinary centrality of fieldwork and field experience to geomorphology, on the other, was a recurrent theme. In response, mega-geomorphologists attempted to re-situate fieldwork and re-narrate disciplinary histories in such a way as to make remote sensing and planetary science not only compatible with geomorphological traditions but also means of revitalizing them. Only partially successful, these attempts reveal that the process of adopting a planetary perspective in geomorphology, as in other earth sciences, was neither straightforward nor inevitable. They also show how the field and fieldwork could remain central to geomorphology while also being extensively revised in light of new technical possibilities and theoretical frameworks.     

Robust model rankings of forecasting performance

This paper investigates robust model rankings in out‐of‐sample, short‐horizon forecasting. We provide strong evidence that rolling window averaging consistently produces robust model rankings while improving the forecasting performance of both individual models and model averaging. The rolling window averaging outperforms the (ex post) “optimal” window forecasts in more than 50% of the times across all rolling windows.     

Methods for backcasting,nowcasting and forecasting using factor‐MIDAS: With an application to Korean GDP

We utilize mixed‐frequency factor‐MIDAS models for the purpose of carrying out backcasting, nowcasting, and forecasting experiments using real‐time data. We also introduce a new real‐time Korean GDP dataset, which is the focus of our experiments. The methodology that we utilize involves first estimating common latent factors (i.e., diffusion indices) from 190 monthly macroeconomic and financial series using various estimation strategies. These factors are then included, along with standard variables measured at multiple different frequencies, in various factor‐MIDAS prediction models. Our key empirical findings as follows. (i) When using real‐time data, factor‐MIDAS prediction models outperform various linear benchmark models. Interestingly, the “MSFE‐best” MIDAS models contain no autoregressive (AR) lag terms when backcasting and nowcasting. AR terms only begin to play a role in “true” forecasting contexts. (ii) Models that utilize only one or two factors are “MSFE‐best” at all forecasting horizons, but not at any backcasting and nowcasting horizons. In these latter contexts, much more heavily parametrized models with many factors are preferred. (iii) Real‐time data are crucial for forecasting Korean gross domestic product, and the use of “first available” versus “most recent” data “strongly” affects model selection and performance. (iv) Recursively estimated models are almost always “MSFE‐best,” and models estimated using autoregressive interpolation dominate those estimated using other interpolation methods. (v) Factors estimated using recursive principal component estimation methods have more predictive content than those estimated using a variety of other (more sophisticated) approaches. This result is particularly prevalent for our “MSFE‐best” factor‐MIDAS models, across virtually all forecast horizons, estimation schemes, and data vintages that are analyzed.     

Integrative taxonomy at the nexus of population divergence and speciation in insular speckled rattlesnakes

ABSTRACT

We describe two diminutive species of rattlesnakes (genus Crotalus) from small nearshore islands off the coast of Baja California in the western Gulf of California, Mexico. In order to test the hypothesis that some island populations represent cohesive species entities, we applied linear discriminant analysis and uniform validation procedures to multiple classes of intrinsic trait data. By using previously recognised species to establish a threshold for species recognition, we found that assignment of specimens to either new species was as probable as with other established rattlesnake species within the speckled rattlesnake (Crotalus mitchellii) complex. We also found that assignment of specimens from other island populations was not as probable as for the established species, and these populations are referable to C. pyrrhus. The species endemic to Piojo Island is most closely related to other island and mainland populations of C. pyrrhus whereas the species endemic to Cabeza de Caballo Island is apparently most closely related to C. angelensis, a nearby island endemic of large body size. However, patterns from both mitochondrial and nuclear phylogenies, and phenotypic variation, indicate that evolutionary trajectories of both of these species have been influenced by introgression from C. angelensis. We speculate that collective evidence based on contrasting patterns of nuclear and mitochondrial evolution supports a hybrid origin of the species from Cabeza de Caballo Island followed by exceptionally rapid mitochondrial evolution. Consistent with small body size, both species show a reduction in various scale counts relative to other species of the C. mitchellii species complex, suggesting that dwarfism is not simply a plastic response to insular conditions.

http://www.zoobank.org/urn.lsid:zoobank.org:pub:FBC8A11B-04A3-4231-85CA-3972DF5A42FF     

Cryptic and non-cryptic diversity in New Guinea ground snakes of the genus Stegonotus Duméril,Bibron and Duméril, 1854: a description of four new species (Squamata: Colubridae)

ABSTRACT

The island of New Guinea has been identified as biologically megadiverse but many taxa are still poorly known. This is especially the case for many of the island’s snakes, which by their very nature can be difficult to collect and study. Here we examine the phylogenetic and phylogeographic structure of a poorly studied snake genus, Stegonotus, focusing on the species of New Guinea; until now, Stegonotus has never been examined using modern phylogenetic methods. Using molecular data from 49 individuals representing eight of the ten described species, and including all New Guinea taxa, we estimate a multilocus phylogeny and examine population structure to help identify undescribed taxa. We use morphological data from the corresponding museum vouchered specimens (where available) and also examine additional specimens for taxa not included in the molecular data set to determine morphological differences among putative taxa. We find molecular evidence for four new species of Stegonotus, both morphologically obvious and cryptic, and describe them herein. The recognition of these four species indicates that Stegonotus diversity has been previously underestimated and also suggests that there are likely additional undescribed taxa within the genus. These four taxa increase the number of described species by 40% and further confirm New Guinea as the centre of diversity for the genus.

www.zoobank.org/urn:lsid:zoobank.org:pub:9E21390E-3FD4-40EB-9442-31BC92A76B4F     

The carcinofauna found in stomach contents of the flying gurnard (Dactylopterus volitans) on the continental shelf of the Campos Basin,Brazil

A total of 3109 crustaceans belonging to 50 taxa distributed in 42 families were found in 117 analysed stomachs of flying gurnard (Dactylopterus volitans). Samples were obtained in April 2008 by the R/V Gyre using a bottom trawl towed in 12 stations at 14–100 m depth on the continental shelf of the Campos Basin, Brazil. The carcinofauna was analysed and the order Calanoida (Copepoda) found to be the most important item in terms of relative abundance and frequency of occurrence, followed by the order Amphipoda (Peracarida), the infraorder Brachyura (Decapoda), the order Stomatopoda and the subclass Myodocopa (Ostracoda). In the order Calanoida, the species Pontellopsis cf. villosa (Pontellidae) represented 98.04% of total crustacean abundance. The diet of Dactylopterus volitans varied according to fish size, with higher diversity of Crustacea at smaller size classes, decreasing in larger fishes. A similar pattern regarding depth was obtained, with greater diversity of taxa in gurnard stomachs caught at shallower depths. Flying gurnard is considered a generalized carnivore of invertebrates, eating mobile macrobenthic organisms, such as crustaceans, and its diet varies with its life stage, without any specific group as its main food source.     

Synopsis of ‘onychocellid’ cheilostome bryozoan genera

Genera assigned to the cheilostome bryozoan family Onychocellidae are revised based on the skeletal morphology of the type species and, when possible, the type material of these species. All genera are illustrated using scanning electron micrographs, some for the first time. Onychocellidae, which ranges from the Cenomanian stage of the Cretaceous to the Recent, has been a particularly troublesome family because of poorly defined generic concepts correlating at least in part with a paucity of morphological characters. Thirty-five genera are described in this review. Of these, two are recognised as subjective synonyms of other onychocellid genera (Rhebasia and Semieschara), one cannot be sufficiently characterised from the type material (Collura), and two are new: Aechmellina gen. nov. (type species Aechmella falcifera) and Kamilocella gen. nov. (type species Eschara latilabris). A neotype is chosen for Rhagasostoma hexagonum, the type species of Rhagasostoma. A key is provided to assist in the identification of onychocellid genera. Phylogenetic relationships between genera remain obscure and are unlikely to be fully resolved based on skeletal morphology alone. The family as an entity is loosely circumscribed and almost certainly paraphyletic, containing stem genera of other anascan familes such as Lunulitidae, Coscinopleuridae and Aspidostomatidae.

www.zoobank.org/urn:lsid:org:pub:63A31AD2-F049-42CB-A45B-557014DC286E