Forecasting recessions using the yield curve

We compare forecasts of recessions using four different specifications of the probit model: a time invariant conditionally independent version; a business cycle specific conditionally independent model; a time invariant probit with autocorrelated errors; and a business cycle specific probit with autocorrelated errors. The more sophisticated versions of the model take into account some of the potential underlying causes of the documented predictive instability of the yield curve. We find strong evidence in favour of the more sophisticated specification, which allows for multiple breakpoints across business cycles and autocorrelation. We also develop a new approach to the construction of real time forecasting of recession probabilities. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mutation of the matrix metalloproteinase 2 gene (MMP2) causes a multicentric osteolysis and arthritis syndrome.

The inherited osteolyses or 'vanishing bone' syndromes are a group of rare disorders of unknown etiology characterized by destruction and resorption of affected bones. The multicentric osteolyses are notable for interphalangeal joint erosions that mimic severe juvenile rheumatoid arthritis (OMIMs 166300, 259600, 259610 and 277950). We recently described an autosomal recessive form of multicentric osteolysis with carpal and tarsal resorption, crippling arthritic changes, marked osteoporosis, palmar and plantar subcutaneous nodules and distinctive facies in a number of consanguineous Saudi Arabian families. We localized the disease gene to 16q12-21 by using members of these families for a genome-wide search for homozygous-by-descent microsatellite markers. Haplotype analysis narrowed the critical region to a 1.2-cM region that spans the gene encoding MMP-2 (gelatinase A, collagenase type IV; (ref. 3). We detected no MMP2 enzymatic activity in the serum or fibroblasts of affected family members. We identified two family-specific homoallelic MMP2 mutations: R101H and Y244X. The nonsense mutation effects a deletion of the substrate-binding and catalytic sites and the fibronectin type II-like and hemopexin/TIMP2 binding domains. Based on molecular modeling, the missense mutation disrupts hydrogen bond formation within the highly conserved prodomain adjacent to the catalytic zinc ion.     

Changes in glycosaminoglycan sulfation and protein kinase C subcellular distribution during differentiation of the human colon tumor cell line Caco-2

Summary During the spontaneous differentiation (day 5 to day 15 of the culture) of Caco-2 cells, the sulfation of cell layer glycosaminoglycans increased, whereas protein kinase C activity was concomitantly redistributed from the membrane to the cytosol. The protein kinase C activators, 4-phorbol 12-myristate, 13-acetate and 1,2-dioctanoyl-glycerol inhibited glycosaminoglycan sulfation. By contrast, 4-phorbol 12, 13 didecanoate was ineffective.These results suggest that membrane-bound PKC may exert a modulatory effect on glycosaminoglycan sulfation, and this effect is gradually attenuated as Caco-2 cell differentiation progresses.     

The effect of ethanol on the biosynthesis and regulation of opioid peptides

Summary Alcoholism and alcohol abuse are serious health problems. Alcohol is known to influence the activity of a number of biological systems, for example the hormonal and neuronal systems. One of the biological systems whose activity is greatly influenced by alcohol is the endogenous opiate system. Alcohol modifies the function of both opiate receptors and opioid peptides. In fact it has been proposed that many of the effects of ethanol are mediated by its effects on the endogenous opiate system. This review will present results from various laboratories on the effects of acute and chronic ethanol treatments on various species, and on the release, biosynthesis and post-translational processing of the endorphins, enkephalins and dynorphins, the three known families of endogenous opioid peptides. Furthermore, the effect of acute and chronic ethanol consumption on the -endorphin system in man, and the possible implications of the functional activity of the endogenous opiate system for the genetic predisposition to alcoholism will be discussed.     

Methodological foundations of systems methodologies

In social systems science generally, and in management science particularly, recent developments in the variety of types of specific problem-solving methodologies (under the rubric of hard and soft systems approaches) have given an impetus to a line of inquiry, as well as debate on the nature of those methodologies. On the one hand, there has been the view that what we are witnessing is a form of Kuhnian crisis. On the other hand, a complementarist view of developments has been argued and a contingency approach proposed. But one thing has been common among the competing views: a belief that the prospects for further advances in the design and application of those methodologies, and in resolving the current controversies, lie in serious attempts to reconsider and clarify the underlying metatheoretical assumptions and concerns. This paper is an attempt to contribute to such an endeavor. A brief exposition of three methodological foundations (namely, empiricism, hermeneutics, and critique) is made, not only with the purpose of highlighting the nature as well as the limits of their epistemological and ethical claims, but also as a basis for illuminating both the nature of contemporary work on systems inquiry, design, and problem solving and the ongoing debate on what constitutes appropriate criteria for choice of specific methodologies.     

Misuses of biology in the context of the paranormal

Summary Public suspicion of science stems from science's challenging of perceptions and myths about reality, and a public fear of new technology. The result is a susceptibility to pseudoscience. In claiming that creation science is as valid as evolution the creationists misquote scientists and seek to spread their own scientific myths concerning a young age for the earth, an act of creation based on a particular literalist interpretation of the Christian Bible and a single worldwide flood. They use methods of debate and politics, rather than scientific research. A selection of their arguments is examined and the nature of the evidence for evolution is discussed. Problems with the creation science model are noted. In the myth of the hundredth monkey phenomenon, original research is misquoted to denigrate scientific research and support sentimental ideas of paranormal events. The misuse of science is seen as damaging to society because it reduces the effective gathering and application of scientific information. However, pseudoscience provides a valuable guide to gaps in public scientific education.     

Lack of effect of dihydroergotamine on endothelial and smooth muscle cell proliferation and endothelial cell prostanoid production

Summary The most important effect of dihydroergotamine is venoconstriction, but certain metabolic effects and changes in vessel prostanoid activity have also been suggested. In this study endothelial cell production of 6-keto PGF₁ and TxB₂ was quantitated in vitro. No evidence of altered prostanoid production was noted after incubation with dihydroergotamine (exposure ranging from 5×10^–3 to 5×10^–7 g/l). Similarly, no effect of dihydroergotamine on the growth rates of endothelial cells or smooth muscle cells in vitro was documented.     

Zinc antagonizes the effect of botulinum type A toxin at the mouse neuromuscular junction

Summary Zn²⁺ (10–100 M) elevated the frequency of miniature end-plate potentials (MEPPs) in the mouse diaphragm. The effect did not depend on external Ca²⁺. Botulinum type A toxin (BTX_A, 50 ng/ml) abolished MEPPs almost completely within 30 min. Zn²⁺ (100 M) restored MEPPs and increased their frequency after they had been abolished by BTX_A in Ca²⁺-free solutions. The antagonistic effect of Zn²⁺ in the Ca²⁺-free solution was reduced by exposing the diaphragm to the toxin in the Ca²⁺-free solutions containing high K⁺. Thus, the action of BTX_A is probably enhanced by depolarization of the motor nerve terminals.     

Effect of protein kinase C activation and depletion on insulin stimulation of glycogen synthesis in cultured hepatoma cells

Summary Insulin stimulation of glycogen synthesis was nearly abolished in hepatoma cells shortly treated with 4 ß-phorbol 12 \-myristate, 13 -acetate (protein kinase C activation) but remained unmodified in cells chronically treated with the phorbol ester (protein kinase C depletion). Thus, although exogenous activation of protein kinase C results in an inhibition of insulin action, protein kinase C depletion has no influence on this process. The results suggest that, in hepatoma cells, no endogenous activation of protein kinase C may occur in response to the signal triggered by insulin.     

C1 inhibitor hinge region mutations produce dysfunction by different mechanisms.

Heterozygosity for a mutant dysfunctional C1 inhibitor protein, a member of the serine proteinase inhibitor (serpin) superfamily, results in type II hereditary angioneurotic oedema. We identified a "hinge" region mutation in C1 inhibitor with a Val to Glu replacement at P14 Val-432. Recombinant C1 inhibitors P10 Ala-->Thr and P14Val-->Glu did not form stable complexes with fluid phase C1s or kallikrein. The P14 Val-->Glu mutant, however, was cleaved to a 96K form by C1s, while the P10 Ala-->Thr mutant was not. The recombinant P10 mutant also did not complex with C1s, kallikrein or beta-factor Xlla-Sepharose. The two mutations, therefore, result in dysfunction by different mechanisms: in one (P14 Val-->Glu), the inhibitor is converted to a substrate, while in the other (P10 Ala-->Thr), interaction with target protease is blocked.