A ground‐level ozone forecasting model for Santiago,Chile

A physically based model for ground‐level ozone forecasting is evaluated for Santiago, Chile. The model predicts the daily peak ozone concentration, with the daily rise of air temperature as input variable; weekends and rainy days appear as interventions. This model was used to analyse historical data, using the Linear Transfer Function/Finite Impulse Response (LTF/FIR) formalism; the Simultaneous Transfer Function (STF) method was used to analyse several monitoring stations together. Model evaluation showed a good forecasting performance across stations—for low and high ozone impacts—with power of detection (POD) values between 70 and 100%, Heidke's Skill Scores between 40% and 70% and low false alarm rates (FAR). The model consistently outperforms a pure persistence forecast. Model performance was not sensitive to different implementation options. The model performance degrades for two‐ and three‐days ahead forecast, but is still acceptable for the purpose of developing an environmental warning system at Santiago. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mechanism for the learning deficits in a mouse model of neurofibromatosis type 1.

Neurofibromatosis type I (NF1) is one of the most common single-gene disorders that causes learning deficits in humans. Mice carrying a heterozygous null mutation of the Nfl gene (Nfl(+/-) show important features of the learning deficits associated with NF1 (ref. 2). Although neurofibromin has several known properties and functions, including Ras GTPase-activating protein activity, adenylyl cyclase modulation and microtubule binding, it is unclear which of these are essential for learning in mice and humans. Here we show that the learning deficits of Nf1(+/-) mice can be rescued by genetic and pharmacological manipulations that decrease Ras function. We also show that the Nf1(+/-) mice have increased GABA (gamma-amino butyric acid)-mediated inhibition and specific deficits in long-term potentiation, both of which can be reversed by decreasing Ras function. Our results indicate that the learning deficits associated with NF1 may be caused by excessive Ras activity, which leads to impairments in long-term potentiation caused by increased GABA-mediated inhibition. Our findings have implications for the development of treatments for learning deficits associated with NF1.     

Abnormal pattern detected in fragile-X patients by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis.

The fragile-X syndrome is the most frequent inherited form of mental retardation, with an incidence of 1 in 1,500 males. It is characterized by the presence of a fragile site at Xq27.3 induced in vitro by folate deprivation or by inhibitors of deoxynucleotide synthesis. Its mode of inheritance is unusual for an X-linked trait, with incomplete penetrance in both males and females. Some phenotypically normal males transmit the mutation to all their daughters who rarely express any symptoms, but penetrance is high in sons and daughters of these carrier women. Genetic and physical mapping of the Xq27-q28 region has confirmed that the disease locus is located at or very near the fragile site. Hypotheses proposed to account for the abnormalities in the inheritance of the disease include sequence rearrangements by meiotic recombination or a mutation that affects reactivation of an inactive X chromosome during differentiation of female germ cells. To detect such rearrangements, or methylation changes that may reflect a locally inactive X chromosome, we used pulsed-field gel analysis of DNA from fragile-X patients with probes close to the fragile-X locus. The probe Do33 (DXS465) detected abnormal patterns in fragile-X patients, but not in normal controls or in non-expressing male transmitters.     

An Ig-A-like substance in the chicken's pineal

Summary Immunohistochemistry revealed an Ig-A-like substance on the luminal surface of the pineal follicles and in the parafollicular layer. This substance was observed around 1 week of age and disappeared by 8 weeks at the time when the transformation of the follicular pattern leads to an adult-type pineal tissue.     

Statecharts for Distributed Product Data Management System Modelling

Product data management (PDM) has been accepted as an important tool for the manufacturing industries. In recent years, more and mor e researches have been conducted in the development of PDM. Their research area s include system design, integration of object-oriented technology, data distri bution, collaborative and distributed manufacturing working environment, secur ity, and web-based integration. However, there are limitations on their rese arches. In particular, they cannot cater for PDM in dis...     

The detection of structural deformation errors in attitude determination

In the determination of the attitude parameters from a multi-antenna GPS array, one of the major assumptions is that the body frame is rigid at all times. If this assumption is not true then the derived attitude parameters will be in error. It is well known that in airborne platforms the wings often experience some displacement during flight, especially during periods of initializing maneouvres, such as taking off, landing,and banking. Often it is at these points in time that it is most critical to have the most precise attitude parameters.There are a number of techniques available for the detection of modeling errors.The CUSUM algorithm has successfully been implemented in the past to detect small persistent changes. In this paper the authors investigate different methods of generating the residuals, to be tested by the CUSUM algorithm, in an effort to determine which technique is best suited for the detection of structural deformation of an airborne platform. The methods investigated include monitoring the mean of the residuals generated from the difference between the known body frame coordinates, and those calculated from the derived attitude parameters. The generated residuals are then passed to a CUSUM algorithm to detect any small persistent changes. An alternative method involves transforming the generated residuals into the frequency domain through the use of the Fast Fourier Transform. The CUSUM algorithm is then used to detect any frequency changes. The final technique investigated involves transforming the generated residuals using the Haar wavelet. The wavelet coefficients are then monitored by the CUSUM algorithm in order to detect any significant change to the rigidity of the body frame.Detecting structural deformation, and quantifying the degree of deformation, during flight will ensure that these effects can be removed from the system, thus ensuring the most precise and reliable attitude parameter solutions. This paper, through a series ofsimulations, will assess the effectiveness of the above mentioned techniques for detecting structural deformation effects on a GPS multi-antenna array. These principles are then tested with experimental data.     

Studies on the Dd antigen-antibody system. I. The nature of antigen Dd and its antibodies

Summary The nature of antigen Dd, an antigen present in the extracts of human dandruff which precipitates human sera selectively, and antibodies reacting with it are reported.This work was supported through U.G.C. Grant No. F.23-230/75/SR II. H.K. participated in this study, first as J.R.F. of U.G.C. and then as S.R.F. of I.C.M.R. We are grateful to Dr Baruch S. Blumberg for his invaluable suggestions and to Professor H. Walter for the gift of IgG, IgM and IgA immune sera.     

Comparative study of the karyotypes of two Egyptian species of bats,Taphozous perforatus andTaphozous nudiventris (Chiroptera: Mammalia)

A detailed karyotypic analysis of two Egyptian species of bats,Taphozous perforatus andTaphozous nudiventris, was made on the basis of conventional data and G-band patterns. No detectable karyotypic difference was found between the two species (2n=42, F.N. 64). By comparison of G-band patterns, some differences between the two species were seen in the corresponding autosomal pairs. These results are reported for the first time in Egypt.     

Decision trees for forecasting

Recent years have seen an increasing cross-fertilization between the fields of decision analysis and forecasting. Decision-analytic models often require forecasts as inputs, and aspects of the Bayesian decision-theoretic framework underlying decision analysis have proved useful to forecasting, particularly in contexts where subjective judgemental inputs are required. This paper describes the use of decision tree analysis for forecasting and illustrates its use for corporate divisional forecasting and planning. A specialized decision-analytic technique, acts as events, is also described and illustrated to forecast a new product's earnings. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of decision analysis for forecasting.     

Indoxyl derivatives of drug metabolites

Summary Indoxyl derivatives were detected as minor products among the urinary metabolites of two trial drugs, a benzodiazepine (GP 55 129) and a benzophenone (CGP 11 952). Their structures were elucidated by NMR and mass spectroscopy. Presumably, metabolites containing potential aldehyde functions react spontaneously with endogenous indoxyl. Such derivatives have not hitherto been encountered in drug metabolism.