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461.
In this paper a multivariate time series model using the seemingly unrelated time series equation (SUTSE) framework is proposed to forecast longevity gains. The proposed model is represented in state space form and uses Kalman filtering to estimate the unobservable components and fixed parameters. We apply the model both to male mortality rates in Portugal and the USA. Our results compare favorably, in terms of mean absolute percentage error, in‐sample and out‐of‐sample, to those obtained by the Lee–Carter method and some of its extensions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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Aquatic anoles present an interesting ecomorphological puzzle. On the one hand, the link between habitat use and morphology is well established as convergent within the Caribbean anole radiation. On the other hand, aquatic anoles do not appear to form an ecomorphological group – rather, it appears that there may be several ways to adapt to aquatic habitats. We explore this issue by examining the ecology, morphology and performance of four species of Central American aquatic anoles belonging to two different lineages. Overall, we find that aquatic anoles overlap in multiple ecological and morphological dimensions. However, we do find some differences in substrate use, claw and limb morphology, and bite force that distinguish Anolis aquaticus from the other three species (A. lionotus, A. oxylophus and A. poecilopus). Our results suggest that A. aquaticus is adapted to climb on boulders, whereas the other species utilise vegetation in streamside habitats.  相似文献   
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One of the most important journeys of exploration to Arctic Russia was the so-called 1909 Kara Expedition, to the polar area north of the Ural Mountains. Among the scientific papers resulting from this expedition, that on the Diptera gives only the vaguest locality data, such as ‘Kara tundra’ or ‘polar Urals’, with a date. From the separately published Russian expedition narrative, we present a table giving the day-by-day stops of the expedition, so far as possible with named localities and coordinates. As a result, localities, and especially type-localities of new species, can be precisely located for the Diptera and for other taxonomic groups.  相似文献   
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该文应用连续介质力学理论建立了与蒸汽注入过程相关的热-流-变形耦合问题的基本数学模型;应用全隐式顺序Galerkin有限元数值解方案,对注蒸汽井的热-流体-变形耦合过程进行了数值模拟。结果表明,由于低渗透页岩地层流体高温膨胀导致的超高孔隙压力,有可能产生拉张应力,严重时会导致地层破裂。  相似文献   
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This paper considers the problems of statistically analysing the levels of financial time series rather than their differences, which are often equivalent to returns and which are traditionally analysed in econometric modelling. This focus on differences is a consequence of the inherent nonstationarity of the levels, and hence analysing the latter requires introducing an alternative framework for modelling nonstationary behaviour. We do this by considering randomized unit root processes, arguing that these can have a natural interpretation in the financial context. The paper thus develops methods for testing for randomized unit roots and for modelling such processes. It then applies these techniques to various financial time series, so as to ascertain their potential usefulness, particularly for forecasting.  相似文献   
469.
Microbial model systems have a long history of fruitful use in fields that include evolution and ecology. In order to develop further insight into modelling practice, we examine how the competitive exclusion and coexistence of competing species have been modelled mathematically and materially over the course of a long research history. In particular, we investigate how microbial models of these dynamics interact with mathematical or computational models of the same phenomena. Our cases illuminate the ways in which microbial systems and equations work as models, and what happens when they generate inconsistent findings about shared targets. We reveal an iterative strategy of comparative modelling in different media, and suggest reasons why microbial models have a special degree of epistemic tractability in multimodel inquiry.  相似文献   
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Neurogenesis continues in the post-developmental brain throughout life. The ability to stimulate the production of new neurones requires both quiescent and actively proliferating pools of neural stem cells (NSCs). Actively proliferating NSCs ensure that neurogenic demand can be met, whilst the quiescent pool makes certain NSC reserves do not become depleted. The processes preserving the NSC quiescent pool are only just beginning to be defined. Herein, we identify a switch between NSC proliferation and quiescence through changing intracellular redox signalling. We show that N-terminal post-translational cleavage products of the prion protein (PrP) induce a quiescent state, halting NSC cellular growth, migration, and neurite outgrowth. Quiescence is initiated by the PrP cleavage products through reducing intracellular levels of reactive oxygen species. First, inhibition of redox signalling results in increased mitochondrial fission, which rapidly signals quiescence. Thereafter, quiescence is maintained through downstream increases in the expression and activity of superoxide dismutase-2 that reduces mitochondrial superoxide. We further observe that PrP is predominantly cleaved in quiescent NSCs indicating a homeostatic role for this cascade. Our findings provide new insight into the regulation of NSC quiescence, which potentially could influence brain health throughout adult life.  相似文献   
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