Nonlinear Forecasting Using Factor‐Augmented Models

Using factors in forecasting exercises reduces the dimensionality of the covariates set and, therefore, allows the forecaster to explore possible nonlinearities in the model. For an American macroeconomic dataset, I present evidence that the employment of nonlinear estimation methods can improve the out‐of‐sample forecasting accuracy for some macroeconomic variables, such as industrial production, employment, and Fed fund rate. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Large protein complexes retained in the ER are dislocated by non-COPII vesicles and degraded by selective autophagy

Multisubunit protein complexes are assembled in the endoplasmic reticulum (ER). Existing pools of single subunits and assembly intermediates ensure the efficient and rapid formation of complete complexes. While being kinetically beneficial, surplus components must be eliminated to prevent potentially harmful accumulation in the ER. Surplus single chains are cleared by the ubiquitin–proteasome system. However, the fate of not secreted assembly intermediates of multisubunit proteins remains elusive. Here we show by high-resolution double-label confocal immunofluorescence and immunogold electron microscopy that naturally occurring surplus fibrinogen Aα–γ assembly intermediates in HepG2 cells are dislocated together with EDEM1 from the ER to the cytoplasm in ER-derived vesicles not corresponding to COPII-coated vesicles originating from the transitional ER. This route corresponds to the novel ER exit path we have previously identified for EDEM1 (Zuber et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104:4407–4412, 2007). In the cytoplasm, detergent-insoluble aggregates of fibrinogen Aα–γ dimers develop that are targeted by the selective autophagy cargo receptors p62/SQSTM1 and NBR1. These aggregates are degraded by selective autophagy as directly demonstrated by high-resolution microscopy as well as biochemical analysis and inhibition of autophagy by siRNA and kinase inhibitors. Our findings demonstrate that different pathways exist in parallel for ER-to-cytoplasm dislocation and subsequent proteolytic degradation of large luminal protein complexes and of surplus luminal single-chain proteins. This implies that ER-associated protein degradation (ERAD) has a broader function in ER proteostasis and is not limited to the elimination of misfolded glycoproteins.     

Extensive halogen-mediated ozone destruction over the tropical Atlantic Ocean

Increasing tropospheric ozone levels over the past 150 years have led to a significant climate perturbation; the prediction of future trends in tropospheric ozone will require a full understanding of both its precursor emissions and its destruction processes. A large proportion of tropospheric ozone loss occurs in the tropical marine boundary layer and is thought to be driven primarily by high ozone photolysis rates in the presence of high concentrations of water vapour. A further reduction in the tropospheric ozone burden through bromine and iodine emitted from open-ocean marine sources has been postulated by numerical models, but thus far has not been verified by observations. Here we report eight months of spectroscopic measurements at the Cape Verde Observatory indicative of the ubiquitous daytime presence of bromine monoxide and iodine monoxide in the tropical marine boundary layer. A year-round data set of co-located in situ surface trace gas measurements made in conjunction with low-level aircraft observations shows that the mean daily observed ozone loss is approximately 50 per cent greater than that simulated by a global chemistry model using a classical photochemistry scheme that excludes halogen chemistry. We perform box model calculations that indicate that the observed halogen concentrations induce the extra ozone loss required for the models to match observations. Our results show that halogen chemistry has a significant and extensive influence on photochemical ozone loss in the tropical Atlantic Ocean boundary layer. The omission of halogen sources and their chemistry in atmospheric models may lead to significant errors in calculations of global ozone budgets, tropospheric oxidizing capacity and methane oxidation rates, both historically and in the future.     

Theoretical mechanics: crowd synchrony on the Millennium Bridge

Soon after the crowd streamed on to London's Millennium Bridge on the day it opened, the bridge started to sway from side to side: many pedestrians fell spontaneously into step with the bridge's vibrations, inadvertently amplifying them. Here we model this unexpected and now notorious phenomenon--which was not due to the bridge's innovative design as was first thought--by adapting ideas originally developed to describe the collective synchronization of biological oscillators such as neurons and fireflies. Our approach should help engineers to estimate the damping needed to stabilize other exceptionally crowded footbridges against synchronous lateral excitation by pedestrians.     

适用于桥梁截面温度场计算的太阳辐射模型研究综述

为选择更适用的太阳辐射计算模型进行桥梁截面积温度场分析,对国内外不同的太阳辐射计算模型进行归纳总结,主要包括桥梁截面温度场分析中必备的太阳总辐射、太阳直接辐射和太阳散射辐射.对比分析不同数值计算模型之间的异同点及其适用范围.分析发现基于日照时数的日太阳总辐射经验模型ngstr9m-Page模型应用最多,其线性表达式的计算量小且满足精度要求;日太阳总辐射可采用Collares-Pereira and Rabl模型换算为逐时太阳总辐射;逐时太阳直接辐射和逐时太阳散射辐射可分别采用Hottel模型和Liu and Jordan模型进行计算.所总结的逐时太阳辐射计算模型可作为边界条件开展桥梁截面温度场分析.     

太阳辐射对福建省桥梁截面温度场的影响研究

实地采集福建省8 座城市的太阳辐射数据,基于此提出一种适用的数值计算模型. 选取一座实桥,实地监测其主梁截面温度场数据,并采用MIDAS-FEA软件建立有限元模型进行模拟. 有限元模型计算值与实测值对比表明,夏季考虑太阳辐射的截面温度场计算曲线与实测曲线吻合较好;而不考虑太阳辐射的截面温度场计算曲线的峰值低于实测值,且其峰值出现的时间迟于实际值. 冬季太阳辐射对于桥梁截面温度场影响可以忽略不计.     

Finite lifetime of turbulence in shear flows

Generally, the motion of fluids is smooth and laminar at low speeds but becomes highly disordered and turbulent as the velocity increases. The transition from laminar to turbulent flow can involve a sequence of instabilities in which the system realizes progressively more complicated states, or it can occur suddenly. Once the transition has taken place, it is generally assumed that, under steady conditions, the turbulent state will persist indefinitely. The flow of a fluid down a straight pipe provides a ubiquitous example of a shear flow undergoing a sudden transition from laminar to turbulent motion. Extensive calculations and experimental studies have shown that, at relatively low flow rates, turbulence in pipes is transient, and is characterized by an exponential distribution of lifetimes. They also suggest that for Reynolds numbers exceeding a critical value the lifetime diverges (that is, becomes infinitely large), marking a change from transient to persistent turbulence. Here we present experimental data and numerical calculations covering more than two decades of lifetimes, showing that the lifetime does not in fact diverge but rather increases exponentially with the Reynolds number. This implies that turbulence in pipes is only a transient event (contrary to the commonly accepted view), and that the turbulent and laminar states remain dynamically connected, suggesting avenues for turbulence control.     

Real-time quantum feedback prepares and stabilizes photon number states

Feedback loops are central to most classical control procedures. A controller compares the signal measured by a sensor (system output) with the target value or set-point. It then adjusts an actuator (system input) to stabilize the signal around the target value. Generalizing this scheme to stabilize a micro-system's quantum state relies on quantum feedback, which must overcome a fundamental difficulty: the sensor measurements cause a random back-action on the system. An optimal compromise uses weak measurements, providing partial information with minimal perturbation. The controller should include the effect of this perturbation in the computation of the actuator's operation, which brings the incrementally perturbed state closer to the target. Although some aspects of this scenario have been experimentally demonstrated for the control of quantum or classical micro-system variables, continuous feedback loop operations that permanently stabilize quantum systems around a target state have not yet been realized. Here we have implemented such a real-time stabilizing quantum feedback scheme following a method inspired by ref. 13. It prepares on demand photon number states (Fock states) of a microwave field in a superconducting cavity, and subsequently reverses the effects of decoherence-induced field quantum jumps. The sensor is a beam of atoms crossing the cavity, which repeatedly performs weak quantum non-demolition measurements of the photon number. The controller is implemented in a real-time computer commanding the actuator, which injects adjusted small classical fields into the cavity between measurements. The microwave field is a quantum oscillator usable as a quantum memory or as a quantum bus swapping information between atoms. Our experiment demonstrates that active control can generate non-classical states of this oscillator and combat their decoherence, and is a significant step towards the implementation of complex quantum information operations.     

Disciplining cattle reproduction: Veterinary reproductive science,bull infertility,and the mid-twentieth century transformation of Swedish dairy cattle breeding

From the 1940s, reproductive physiology and livestock genetics transformed dairy cattle breeding and became, in conjunction with the new reproductive technology of artificial insemination, important drivers of agricultural modernization in most countries with significant dairying. While this is well known, we know less about the longer-term interplay between specifically veterinary interests in reproduction and the institutional development of cattle breeding. In the present paper, I therefore examine the veterinary disciplining of cattle reproduction—its constitution as a veterinary scientific discipline and the extension of veterinary control over it—in mid-twentieth century Sweden. I show how veterinary scientists derived legitimacy for their fledgling discipline by engaging with the problems of practical breeding, and that in doing so they also exercised influence over breeding’s development. By making bulls’ reproductive disturbances visible and framing them as hereditary, they undermined the conservative interests of commercial breeders. The development of veterinary reproductive science thereby played an important role in reshaping the culture, economy, and regulations of cattle breeding in Sweden as it shifted from a prewar regime dominated by elite breeders to a postwar regime that, ostensibly, served all dairy farmers in the country.