Non-Gaussian seasonal adjustment: X-12-ARIMA versus robust structural models

This study compares X-12-ARIMA and MING, two new seasonal adjustment methods designed to handle outliers and structural changes in a time series. X-12-ARIMA is a successor to the X-11-ARIMA seasonal adjustment method, and is being developed at the US Bureau of the Census. MING is a ‘Mixture based Non-Gaussian’ method for seasonal adjustment using time series structural models and is implemented as a function in the S-Plus language. The procedures are compared using 29 macroeconomic time series from the US Bureau of the Census. These series have both outliers and structural changes, providing a good testbed for comparing non-Gaussian methods. For the 29 series, the X-12-ARIMA decomposition consistently leads to smoother seasonal factors which are as or more ‘flexible’ than the MING seasonal component. On the other hand, MING is more stable, particularly in the way it handles outliers and level shifts. This study relies heavily on graphical tools for comparing seasonal adjustment methods.     

Evidence for two independent prostate cancer risk-associated loci in the HNF1B gene at 17q12

We carried out a fine-mapping study in the HNF1B gene at 17q12 in two study populations and identified a second locus associated with prostate cancer risk, approximately 26 kb centromeric to the first known locus (rs4430796); these loci are separated by a recombination hot spot. We confirmed the association with a SNP in the second locus (rs11649743) in five additional populations, with P = 1.7 x 10(-9) for an allelic test of the seven studies combined. The association at each SNP remained significant after adjustment for the other SNP.     

A genome-wide map of diversity in Plasmodium falciparum

Genetic variation allows the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum to overcome chemotherapeutic agents, vaccines and vector control strategies and remain a leading cause of global morbidity and mortality. Here we describe an initial survey of genetic variation across the P. falciparum genome. We performed extensive sequencing of 16 geographically diverse parasites and identified 46,937 SNPs, demonstrating rich diversity among P. falciparum parasites (pi = 1.16 x 10(-3)) and strong correlation with gene function. We identified multiple regions with signatures of selective sweeps in drug-resistant parasites, including a previously unidentified 160-kb region with extremely low polymorphism in pyrimethamine-resistant parasites. We further characterized 54 worldwide isolates by genotyping SNPs across 20 genomic regions. These data begin to define population structure among African, Asian and American groups and illustrate the degree of linkage disequilibrium, which extends over relatively short distances in African parasites but over longer distances in Asian parasites. We provide an initial map of genetic diversity in P. falciparum and demonstrate its potential utility in identifying genes subject to recent natural selection and in understanding the population genetics of this parasite.     

ATP-sensitive potassium channels mediate survival during infection in mammals and insects

Specific homeostatic mechanisms confer stability in innate immune responses, preventing injury or death from infection. Here we identify, from a screen of N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea-mutagenized mice, a mutation causing both profound susceptibility to infection by mouse cytomegalovirus and approximately 20,000-fold sensitization to lipopolysaccharide (LPS), poly(I.C) and immunostimulatory (CpG) DNA. The LPS hypersensitivity phenotype is not suppressed by mutations in Myd88, Trif, Tnf, Tnfrsf1a, Ifnb, Ifng or Stat1, genes contributing to LPS responses, and results from an abnormality extrinsic to hematopoietic cells. The phenotype is due to a null allele of Kcnj8, encoding Kir6.1, a protein that combines with SUR2 to form an ATP-sensitive potassium channel (K(ATP)) expressed in coronary artery smooth muscle and endothelial cells. In Drosophila melanogaster, suppression of dSUR by RNA interference similarly causes hypersensitivity to infection by flock house virus. Thus, K(ATP) evolved to serve a homeostatic function during infection, and in mammals it prevents coronary artery vasoconstriction induced by cytokines dependent on TLR and/or MDA5 immunoreceptors.     

Gain-of-function RAF1 mutations cause Noonan and LEOPARD syndromes with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy

Noonan and LEOPARD syndromes are developmental disorders with overlapping features, including cardiac abnormalities, short stature and facial dysmorphia. Increased RAS signaling owing to PTPN11, SOS1 and KRAS mutations causes approximately 60% of Noonan syndrome cases, and PTPN11 mutations cause 90% of LEOPARD syndrome cases. Here, we report that 18 of 231 individuals with Noonan syndrome without known mutations (corresponding to 3% of all affected individuals) and two of six individuals with LEOPARD syndrome without PTPN11 mutations have missense mutations in RAF1, which encodes a serine-threonine kinase that activates MEK1 and MEK2. Most mutations altered a motif flanking Ser259, a residue critical for autoinhibition of RAF1 through 14-3-3 binding. Of 19 subjects with a RAF1 mutation in two hotspots, 18 (or 95%) showed hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), compared with the 18% prevalence of HCM among individuals with Noonan syndrome in general. Ectopically expressed RAF1 mutants from the two HCM hotspots had increased kinase activity and enhanced ERK activation, whereas non-HCM-associated mutants were kinase impaired. Our findings further implicate increased RAS signaling in pathological cardiomyocyte hypertrophy.     

Burrowing mechanics: burrow extension by crack propagation

Until now, the analysis of burrowing mechanics has neglected the mechanical properties of impeding, muddy, cohesive sediments, which behave like elastic solids. Here we show that burrowers can progress through such sediments by using a mechanically efficient, previously unsuspected mechanism--crack propagation--in which an alternating 'anchor' system of burrowing serves as a wedge to extend the crack-shaped burrow. The force required to propagate cracks through sediment in this way is relatively small: we find that the force exerted by the annelid worm Nereis virens in making and moving into such a burrow amounts to less than one-tenth of the force it needs to use against rigid aquarium walls.     

Host shift to an invasive plant triggers rapid animal hybrid speciation

Speciation in animals is almost always envisioned as the split of an existing lineage into an ancestral and a derived species. An alternative speciation route is homoploid hybrid speciation in which two ancestral taxa give rise to a third, derived, species by hybridization without a change in chromosome number. Although theoretically possible it has been regarded as rare and hence of little importance in animals. On the basis of molecular and chromosomal evidence, hybridization is the best explanation for the origin of a handful of extant diploid bisexual animal taxa. Here we report the first case in which hybridization between two host-specific animals (tephritid fruitflies) is clearly associated with the shift to a new resource. Such a hybrid host shift presents an ecologically robust scenario for animal hybrid speciation because it offers a potential mechanism for reproductive isolation through differential adaptation to a new ecological niche. The necessary conditions for this mechanism of speciation are common in parasitic animals, which represent much of animal diversity. The frequency of homoploid hybrid speciation in animals may therefore be higher than previously assumed.     

Botany: specialized bird perch aids cross-pollination

Birds may hover over or perch on flowers when feeding on nectar, and this assists cross-pollination if they then visit other plants. Here we investigate the curious sterile inflorescence axis of the South African Cape endemic 'rat's tail' plant (Babiana ringens, Iridaceae), whose function--unlike in other bird-pollinated plants--is exclusively to provide a perch for foraging birds. We find that this structure promotes the plant's mating success by causing the malachite sunbird (Nectarinia famosa), its main pollinator, to adopt a position ideal for the cross-pollination of its unusual ground-level flowers.