Improving Forecast of Binary Rare Events Data: A GAM‐Based Approach

This paper develops a method for modelling binary response data in a regression model with highly unbalanced class sizes. When the class sizes are highly unbalanced and the minority class represents a rare event, conventional regression analysis, i.e. logistic regression models, could underestimate the probability of the rare event. To overcome this drawback, we introduce a flexible skewed link function based on the quantile function of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution in a generalized additive model (GAM). The proposed model is known as generalized extreme value additive (GEVA) regression model, and a modified version of the local scoring algorithm is suggested to estimate it. We apply the proposed model to a dataset on Italian small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to estimate the default probability of SMEs. Our proposal performs better than the logistic (linear or additive) model in terms of predictive accuracy. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Independent genome-wide scans identify a chromosome 18 quantitative-trait locus influencing dyslexia.

Developmental dyslexia is defined as a specific and significant impairment in reading ability that cannot be explained by deficits in intelligence, learning opportunity, motivation or sensory acuity. It is one of the most frequently diagnosed disorders in childhood, representing a major educational and social problem. It is well established that dyslexia is a significantly heritable trait with a neurobiological basis. The etiological mechanisms remain elusive, however, despite being the focus of intensive multidisciplinary research. All attempts to map quantitative-trait loci (QTLs) influencing dyslexia susceptibility have targeted specific chromosomal regions, so that inferences regarding genetic etiology have been made on the basis of very limited information. Here we present the first two complete QTL-based genome-wide scans for this trait, in large samples of families from the United Kingdom and United States. Using single-point analysis, linkage to marker D18S53 was independently identified as being one of the most significant results of the genome in each scan (P< or =0.0004 for single word-reading ability in each family sample). Multipoint analysis gave increased evidence of 18p11.2 linkage for single-word reading, yielding top empirical P values of 0.00001 (UK) and 0.0004 (US). Measures related to phonological and orthographic processing also showed linkage at this locus. We replicated linkage to 18p11.2 in a third independent sample of families (from the UK), in which the strongest evidence came from a phoneme-awareness measure (most significant P value=0.00004). A combined analysis of all UK families confirmed that this newly discovered 18p QTL is probably a general risk factor for dyslexia, influencing several reading-related processes. This is the first report of QTL-based genome-wide scanning for a human cognitive trait.     

Complexity Management,Democracy and Social Consciousness: Challenges for an Evolutionary Learning Society

Most of the recent approaches to support evolutionary learning communities have offered tools to support agreements on a shared vision. Few have explained how to effectively implement the agreed actions from such a shared vision. From a cybernetic perspective, the present paper explains why the development of structural conditions for democratic involvement is a necessary condition for the effective implementation of evolutionary development at the societal level. It offers insights from cybernetic theory on how to encourage increased participation and social consciousness. Finally, it presents an example of how to design and develop local Agoras, following these criteria. Roger Harnden is an independent researcher.     

Hexon-chimaeric adenovirus serotype 5 vectors circumvent pre-existing anti-vector immunity

A common viral immune evasion strategy involves mutating viral surface proteins in order to evade host neutralizing antibodies. Such immune evasion tactics have not previously been intentionally applied to the development of novel viral gene delivery vectors that overcome the critical problem of anti-vector immunity. Recombinant, replication-incompetent adenovirus serotype 5 (rAd5) vector-based vaccines for human immunodeficiency virus type 1 and other pathogens have proved highly immunogenic in preclinical studies but will probably be limited by the high prevalence of pre-existing anti-Ad5 immunity in human populations, particularly in the developing world. Here we show that rAd5 vectors can be engineered to circumvent anti-Ad5 immunity. We constructed novel chimaeric rAd5 vectors in which the seven short hypervariable regions (HVRs) on the surface of the Ad5 hexon protein were replaced with the corresponding HVRs from the rare adenovirus serotype Ad48. These HVR-chimaeric rAd5 vectors were produced at high titres and were stable through serial passages in vitro. HVR-chimaeric rAd5 vectors expressing simian immunodeficiency virus Gag proved comparably immunogenic to parental rAd5 vectors in naive mice and rhesus monkeys. In the presence of high levels of pre-existing anti-Ad5 immunity, the immunogenicity of HVR-chimaeric rAd5 vectors was not detectably suppressed, whereas the immunogenicity of parental rAd5 vectors was abrogated. These data demonstrate that functionally relevant Ad5-specific neutralizing antibodies are focused on epitopes located within the hexon HVRs. Moreover, these studies show that recombinant viral vectors can be engineered to circumvent pre-existing anti-vector immunity by removing key neutralizing epitopes on the surface of viral capsid proteins. Such chimaeric viral vectors may have important practical implications for vaccination and gene therapy.     

De novo germline and postzygotic mutations in AKT3, PIK3R2 and PIK3CA cause a spectrum of related megalencephaly syndromes

Megalencephaly-capillary malformation (MCAP) and megalencephaly-polymicrogyria-polydactyly-hydrocephalus (MPPH) syndromes are sporadic overgrowth disorders associated with markedly enlarged brain size and other recognizable features. We performed exome sequencing in 3 families with MCAP or MPPH, and our initial observations were confirmed in exomes from 7 individuals with MCAP and 174 control individuals, as well as in 40 additional subjects with megalencephaly, using a combination of Sanger sequencing, restriction enzyme assays and targeted deep sequencing. We identified de novo germline or postzygotic mutations in three core components of the phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3K)-AKT pathway. These include 2 mutations in AKT3, 1 recurrent mutation in PIK3R2 in 11 unrelated families with MPPH and 15 mostly postzygotic mutations in PIK3CA in 23 individuals with MCAP and 1 with MPPH. Our data highlight the central role of PI3K-AKT signaling in vascular, limb and brain development and emphasize the power of massively parallel sequencing in a challenging context of phenotypic and genetic heterogeneity combined with postzygotic mosaicism.     

Reburial of fossil organic carbon in marine sediments

Marine sediments act as the ultimate sink for organic carbon, sequestering otherwise rapidly cycling carbon for geologic timescales. Sedimentary organic carbon burial appears to be controlled by oxygen exposure time in situ, and much research has focused on understanding the mechanisms of preservation of organic carbon. In this context, combustion-derived black carbon has received attention as a form of refractory organic carbon that may be preferentially preserved in soils and sediments. However, little is understood about the environmental roles, transport and distribution of black carbon. Here we apply isotopic analyses to graphitic black carbon samples isolated from pre-industrial marine and terrestrial sediments. We find that this material is terrestrially derived and almost entirely depleted of radiocarbon, suggesting that it is graphite weathered from rocks, rather than a combustion product. The widespread presence of fossil graphitic black carbon in sediments has therefore probably led to significant overestimates of burial of combustion-derived black carbon in marine sediments. It could be responsible for biasing radiocarbon dating of sedimentary organic carbon, and also reveals a closed loop in the carbon cycle. Depending on its susceptibility to oxidation, this recycled carbon may be locked away from the biologically mediated carbon cycle for many geologic cycles.